• MTS Gold Evening News 201610034

    4 Oct 2016 | Gold News


Gold fell to its lowest in over two-weeks on Tuesday as the dollar gained strength after upbeat U.S. economic data.

Chinese markets being shut for the Chinese National Day holidays from Oct. 1-9 will mean gold markets will be quiet.

Merrill Lynch said “Spot gold prices continue to consolidate after an impressive 30% rally from the December 2015 lows. Chart 4 shows price is sitting on support at a year to date trend line. A close below this suggests a correction to follow. However the last few corrective moves have been bought at 1300. And so 1300, in our view, must break to have a higher conviction of a decline and may be where the stops are. Longs have long been stretched - it could be fast A break below 1300 is tactically bearish and implies a correction to the 38.2% retracement of 1250. A larger shift in positioning could lead to 1210. This year dips in gold have been bought. Near term macro events in Q4 could continue to result in buyers of gold on the dip. Gold Q4 seasonals weak in short term, sideways long term Gold prices have had a tough time during Q4 for the past five years. However during the prior 10 and past 30 years, the trend is range bound and choppy.”

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Indian investors are salting away their savings into stocks for the longest stretch ever. Mutual funds showed net buying of shares for a record 10th straight quarter in September, data from Bloomberg show. Households are putting more money into financial assets as slowing inflation reduces the value of gold, a traditional favorite.

Shibabrota Konar exemplifies the shift. He’s stopped buying exchange-traded funds backed by gold and now invests at least 15,000 rupees ($225) a month into stock funds. A jump in industry-wide accounts to a record 50 million at the end of August show he’s not alone.

Retail investors like Konar have been the main contributors to mutual funds’ growth since Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office in May 2014 with the biggest mandate in three decades. Assets with money managers swelled to an unprecedented 16 trillion rupees ($241 billion) in August, with stock plans making up 32 percent of the pie. The proportion was 20 percent in April 2014, data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India show.

Analysts cite several reasons for the trend:

1. Investors seeking higher yields as returns from gold and real estate stagnate.

2. Government policies spurring prospects for economic and corporate earnings growth.

3. A generation of millennial investors ready to take on risk.

4. Inflation-adjusted returns turning positive in the past two years after staying negative for most of the previous five years.

Equity funds have attracted 1.63 trillion rupees from April 2014 through August this year, according to AMFI data. That’s more than the 934 billion rupees that Deutsche Bank AG estimates funds got between January 2002 and April 2014.

Reference: Bloomberg, Forexlive, Reuters


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