Monday's presidential debate could be moment of truth for election-and stocks
The first presidential debate Monday may be a near-term catalyst for stocks, if either candidate looks set to break out.
So far, Wall Street has favored an Election Day victory by Democrat Hillary Clinton, based on the fact she is a known entity, with a strong government background and known policies. Republican Donald Trump, on the other hand, has an aura of uncertainty, with a volatile personality and changing views on key issues, though some on Wall Street are warming to his tax proposals and economic plan.
Just like the election, Clinton is seen by some strategists as having a slight edge in the debate, but it's really not clear which way it will go. The latest NBC/ Wall Street Journalpoll gives Clinton a 6 point lead, 43 percent to Trump's 37 percent, among likely voters.
Boston Fed's Rosengren economy needs 'modest, gradual tightening now'
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said on Friday that he believed interest rates should be raised gradually now and warned that a fall in the unemployment rate below its sustainable level could derail economic recovery in the United States.
"By 2019, I expect the unemployment rate to have declined below 4.5 percent. While I have a long track record of advocating for policy that supports robust labor market conditions, that is below the rate that I believe is sustainable in the long run," Rosengren said in a statement.
Rosengren dissented at this week's Federal Reserve rate setting meeting that left interest rates unchanged.
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
After holding off on a rate hike last week, the Fed is keeping itself in the market's sights, with Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on regulation and supervision Wednesday at 10:00AM ET (14:00GMT).
On Thursday, Yellen is due to speak via videoconference at the Minority Bankers Forum in Kansas City at 4:00PM ET (20:00GMT).
Her comments will be monitored closely for any new insight on policy. Last week, the U.S. central bank kept interest rates unchanged but hinted that an increase could come in December if the job market continued to improve.
Dollar wobbles vs yen and euro, U.S. presidential debate awaited
The dollar wobbled against the yen and euro on early on Monday, cautiously held in a narrow range ahead of the impending first debate between U.S. presidential candidates that could determine the currency's near-term direction.
The greenback was off lows versus the yen and euro touched late last week after long-term rate hike expectations were tempered following the Sept. 20-21 Federal Reserve policy meeting, but it remained on shaky ground as market focus shifted from monetary to political risk.
The dollar was down 0.2 percent at 100.800 yen JPY=. It saw a one-month low of 100.100 on Thursday before pulling back to as high as 101.250 toward the end of last week.
The euro nudged up 0.1 percent to $1.1238 EUR=, adding to Friday's modest gains made after the release of relatively upbeat euro zone producers' manufacturing index (PMI) data. The common currency briefly rose to as high as $1.1258 on Thursday.
Oil Edges Higher as Saudi Offer Opens Door to Future OPEC Deal
Oil pared its biggest drop in more than two months as Saudi Arabia’s offer to cut output opens the door to a future OPEC deal, even as it doesn’t expect an agreement this week when members of the group meet in Algiers.
Futures advanced as much as 1.1 percent in New York after slumping 4 percent on Friday. While Saudi Arabia and Iran didn’t reach an agreement after two days of preparatory talks in Vienna, the kingdom did offer to pump less crude if Iran caps output at current levels, according to two people familiar with the negotiations. Saudi Arabia proposed to cut its production to January levels, Algerian Energy Minister Noureddine Boutarfa said Sunday.
Reference: Bloomberg, Investing, Reuters, CNBC
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