• MTS Economic News_20160627

    27 Jun 2016 | Economic News
 




The British pound fell 1.9 percent to $1.3433 GBP=D4, though it still kept some distance from the 31-year low of $1.3228 touched during Friday's wild trade.

Against the yen, sterling fell more than 2 percent to 136.85 yen GBPJPY=. That was more than 14 percent below its levels early on Friday when investors believed the "remain" camp would win the referendum.

The euro EUR= also came under further pressure, falling 0.8 percent against the dollar, as investors fret Brexit could stoke the anti-establishment mood in Europe.

The euro fell to $1.1031 compared to Friday's 3-1/2-month low of $1.0912.

Oil prices dropped Friday but erased some overnight losses after the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union triggered a selloff across markets.

U.S. oil prices settled down $2.47, or 4.9%, at $47.64 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after falling as low as $46.70 a barrel in overnight trading. Brent, the global benchmark, had traded as low as $47.54 a barrel but settled down $2.50, or 4.9%, at $48.41 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.


The Next Domino To Fall…

With the Brexit vote now over, economists and analysts are now speculating on which European nation will be the next to break away. After the Brexit vote, French political leader Marie Le Pen said that if she wins the next general election, she will hold a referendum.

France will be holding its next presidential election in April 2017.

However, experts at Capital Economics said that the Netherlands could be the next country to want to break away from the EU.

“Despite the Dutch being the least optimistic about their country’s chances outside of the EU, the Netherlands arguably has the greatest potential to hold the next referendum, given that elections are set for March 2017 and the euro-sceptic Party for Freedom has a commanding 13%-pt lead in the polls,” they said.

Hasen said that he remains bullish on gold as the Brexit vote has revealed cracks in the euro experiment. He explained that gold will continue to benefit as a safe haven in an uncertain global currency market.

Traders now believe the already-dovish Federal Reserve won't be raising interest rates at all this year.

As the market digested Thursday's U.K. vote to leave the European Union, market participants sharply ratcheted down expectations for the U.S. central bank.

There's now virtually no chance of a rate hike at the July Federal Open Market Committee meeting, according to the CME's fed fund futures tracker, which indicates a 4.8 percent chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the session.

Reading out to December, there's only a 22.9 percent chance of a hike, while traders assign a 3.6 percent probability to a cut.

The news is particularly surprising considering that FOMC members had indicated as recently as December that there likely would be four hikes this year. Projections after the June meeting still indicated two increases likely, though Fed officials scaled back their expectations for coming years.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Friday scaled back its projections for the Fed this year, believing the Fed will hike in December then move only two times in 2017. The firm also cut its economic forecast for 2017, with the expectation now that gross domestic product will gain just 1.8 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from the earlier forecast.

Oil futures dropped nearly 5% on Friday to their lowest level in about a week, after the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union in a nationwide referendum triggered a selloff across markets.

The U.K.’s vote to end its membership in the EU has spooked investors, sapping appetite for assets viewed as risky, including stocks and commodities, amid the uncertainty surrounding the next step for Europe’s trade bloc.

August West Texas Intermediate crude CLQ6, -5.07% dropped $2.47, or 4.9%, to settle at $47.64 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices logged their largest one-day percentage decline since early February.

Data released Friday from Baker Hughes BHI, -4.13% meanwhile, showed that the weekly number of active U.S. rigs drilling for crude fell for the first time in a month. The oil-rig count fell by 7 to 330 as of Friday. That helped eased expectations that U.S. production is beginning to recover.


Reference: KITCO, CNBC, MarketWatch, Reuters

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