• MTS Economic News_20160307

    7 Mar 2016 | Economic News

China's deputy central bank governor Yi Gang reiterated the government's position that there is no basis for continuous yuan depreciation and that the yuan exchange rate will stay basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.

Yi cited China's medium to high economic growth rate, strong current account surplus and ample foreign exchange reserves as factors that support the yuan exchange rate.

"In the medium to long term, expectations about the level of the yuan will return to focus on fundamentals," Yi said.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Monday the central bank will scrutinize the effects of negative interest rates on the economy for the time being, suggesting that no immediate expansion of stimulus was forthcoming.

Kuroda reiterated the BOJ's readiness to ease again, either by accelerating asset purchases or pushing rates deeper into negative territory, if needed to hit its 2 percent price target.

But he added that current negative rates would have a "very powerful" stimulus effect on the economy by driving down borrowing costs and nudging firms into boosting investment.

"Now is the time to carefully scrutinize how the effect (of the negative rate policy) will spread to the economy," Kuroda said, when asked whether the BOJ was ready to push rates deeper into negative territory.

Wells Fargo’s Economist said, Solid monthly job gains continued across a number of sectors in February. Average hourly earnings slowed as the result of a complex mix of sector gains. Our FOMC outlook remains for a possible June move.

Job Gains Reflect Manufacturing Weakness, Consumer Strength. Overall job growth in February was a solid 242,000. Our theme for the annual outlook was the Great Divide and we certainly see this again in February’s jobs numbers. In today’s employment report, manufacturing jobs declined 16,000 while mining fell 19,000. In contrast, private service providing jobs rose a solid 245,000 with gains across all sectors except temporary help and transportation & warehouses—the second straight drop for these categories. These results are consistent with continued moderate economic growth and no recession in the outlook for 2016.

“We have emphasized the divergence between the production and services sides of the economy over the past six months, and we can see that divergence in today’s numbers. Job gains support the case for continued consumer spending strength as well as growth in the residential and nonresidential construction sectors.” Wells Fargo’s Economist said

Labor Market Tightening, Rising Cost of Labor in Key Sectors. Another late cycle indication fr om the labor market is the rising cost of labor in several sectors (middle graph). As expected, the unemployment rate at 4.9 percent is consistent with rising wage pressures. Sectors such as information and finance reported above average wage gains over the past year and may well reflect a shortage of skilled workers available. Average hourly earnings in the retail and leisure & hospitality industries have also been strong, but may reflect the increase in the minimum wage for those groups.

More broadly, since 2013 and 2014, the employment cost index has trended upward, while productivity gains remain very modest at best. For the economy, this will put further pressure on corporate profit growth and further limit companies’ willingness to invest and hire over time.

German factory orders fell for a second month in January in a sign that a global slowdown and weak domestic pricing power may be hurting Europe’s largest economy.

Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, dropped 0.1 percent from the prior month, when they slid 0.2 percent, data from the Economy Ministry in Berlin showed on Monday. The reading, which is typically volatile, compares with a median estimate for a decrease of 0.3 percent in a Bloomberg survey. Orders climbed 1.1 percent from a year earlier.




Speculators reduced their short positions in West Texas Intermediate crude by 15 percent in the week ended March 1, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Futures gained 7.9 percent in the report week

Speculators’ short positions in WTI fell by 25,639 contracts of futures and options combined to 150,718, the biggest decline since April 21, CFTC data show. Longs, or bets on rising prices, fell by 753. The exodus of bearish bets resulted in a 24,886-contract jump in the net-long position.




Persisting gluts in most commodities and the lack of a strong economic rebound that would drive demand will probably keep a cap on raw-material prices this year, according to Michael Coleman, chief operating officer of RCMA Asset Management Pte.

“In a whole bunch of commodities, you’re still in a bear market, you’re still in an over-supplied, excess capacity, slow demand-growth environment and therefore, it’s a bit difficult to say why should it rally today,” Coleman said in an interview on March 4 in Singapore. “The commodities downcycle can only really end when global GDP growth accelerates.”

Front-month Brent LCOc1 crude futures were trading at $39.16 per barrel, up 1.12 percent from their last settlement and over a third higher than their January low, when prices fell to levels not seen since 2003.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 futures were trading at $36.46 a barrel, up 1.5 percent from the last close and 40 percent above February lows.

Oil prices jumped on Monday, extending a rally that has lifted crude by over a third from this year's lows, as tightening supply and an improving global outlook strengthened the sentiment for a market recovery.

Analysts said that strong U.S. payroll data had pushed markets on Friday and that attention was now shifting to China wh ere the National People's Congress opens its annual session this week.

On the supply side, U.S. energy firms cut oil rigs for an 11th week in a row last week and to the lowest level since December 2009 as producers slash costs.

"Speculative positioning has become increasingly bullish in recent weeks, driven by news of substantial upstream capex cuts, frequent talk of an OPEC/non-OPEC output freeze, and bits of positive economic data," Barclays said on Monday.



Reference: Wells Fargo’s Economic Indicators Report, MNI news, Reuters, Bloomberg

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