• MTS Gold Evening News 20160301

    1 Mar 2016 | Gold News

 

Gold jumped for a fifth session in six on Tuesday, bolstered by safe-haven demand after weak Chinese data stoked concerns over the global economy, with the volume of assets in the top bullion fund climbing to the highest since 2014.

Assets of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's top gold ETF, rose 1.95 percent to 777.27 tonnes on Monday, the highest since September 2014.


According to Societe Generale, gold prices are inversely correlated to market expectations of a rate increase. In other words, gold prices fall as markets scale up bets on rate increases (on expectations of faster economic growth). Prices rise when the economic outlook is gloomy.

The recent gold price rally looks unsustainable and it's time to sell, Societe Generale analysts say, taking an opposite view to rival Deutsche Bank that only last week advocated buying the precious metal.

Gold is still expensive, but rising economic risks and market turmoil mean investors should buy it for insurance, Deutsche Bank said Friday.

SocGen analysts wrote in a note Monday. "Our economists remain confident that the recent financial market turmoil and slowdown in emerging markets are unlikely to cause a recession in the U.S. If they are right, then the market should gradually start pricing in a high probability of one rate hike this year followed by more next year as the U.S. labour market is becoming tight,"

SocGen analysts said gold is overvalued by around 6 percent currently and should be around $1152 an ounce instead. The spot gold price is around $1,245 an ounce.


Last Friday, gold experienced a “golden cross,” a technical indicator that occurs when an asset’s 50-day moving average crosses above its 200-day moving average. It’s the first such movement in nearly two years and is a sign that gold might have further to climb.


Gold’s blistering start to 2016 may be just the beginning, according to Taurus Wealth Advisors Pte, which says bullion may prove to be this year’s best performing asset as central banks exhaust their firepower.

There’s a high probability the metal may surge to $1,350-to-$1,400 an ounce by the year-end, said Rainer Michael Preiss, a strategist at Singapore-based Taurus, a multi-family office with $1.4 billion under management. A rally to $1,400 needs a 13 percent gain from Monday, or 32 percent over the year.

Reference: Reuters, CNBC, GoldSeek, Bloomberg

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