· Gold prices were little changed on Tuesday, ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, while palladium was pinned below a record peak scaled in the previous session.
· Spot gold was steady at $1,780.86 per ounce by 0057 GMT. U.S. gold futures were little changed at $1,780.10 per ounce.
· Palladium was steady at $2,924.93 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of $2,941 on Monday.
· The dollar index inched up against its rivals, making gold more expensive for other currency holders.
· Market participants are now looking at the U.S. Fed’s two-day policy meeting, which ends on Wednesday, and while no major policy changes are expected, investors will pay close attention to Chairman Jerome Powell’s outlook on the economy.
· Japan’s central bank is expected to maintain its massive stimulus on Tuesday and project inflation missing its 2% target for years to come, as fresh curbs to combat a spike in COVID-19 cases overshadow the boost to growth from solid global demand.
· New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods rose solidly in March and shipments surged, cementing expectations that economic growth accelerated in the first quarter as massive government aid and improving public health boosted demand.
· More than 147.23 million people have been reported to be infected by the novel coronavirus globally and 3,249,168? have died, according to a Reuters tally.
· India ordered its armed forces on Monday to help tackle surging new coronavirus infections, as nations pledged urgent medical aid to try to contain an emergency overwhelming the country’s hospitals.
· Gold may fall to $1,750 if it fails to hit $1,800
The price of gold could fall to $1,750 an ounce if it fails to break above $1,800 level, according to an analyst.
"As for the technical price, the resistance is at $1,800, and only a break of this level will assure investors that we may see a move towards the next technical resistance of $1,850. However, if the price fails to break above this, we could see gold prices revisiting the $1,750," said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Ava Trade.
· Gold Market - All eyes on Fed
Starting today, the Fed will hold a two-day policy meeting and investors will pay close attention to Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on the economy.
“The precious metal price is losing its mojo as traders are hesitant to place any big bets ahead of the Fed meeting. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its monetary policy decision tomorrow, and market players are widely expecting no change in their monetary policy. However, what traders are concerned about is the pace of their asset purchase programme, as there is some evidence of those purchases losing some momentum,” said Aslam.
“It is likely that we may see some hint of bullish views in the Chairman’s view because if we look at the new orders’ data, they saw a solid increase in March, and this gives further evidence that economic growth is accelerating in the US. If we do see any hint of overconfidence in his approach, traders are likely to take that as a clue, and that can spur a rally for the dollar index which could be negative for the gold price,” he added.
· Gold Futures: Neutral/Bullish very near-term
Investors added just 139 contracts to their open interest positions in Gold futures markets on Monday, according to flash data from CME Group. On the other hand, volume extended the choppy activity and shrunk by around 34.3K contracts.
Gold stays capped by $1,800
· Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD tracks mildly bid stock futures to recover below $1,800
Gold matches the tune of risk catalysts to reverse the early Asian losses ahead of Tuesday’s European session. Having initially dropped to $1,773.80, the yellow metal rises past $1,780 by the press time.
Above all, cautious sentiment ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and the key earnings scheduled for publishing during the week become the key to follow. While the Fed is likely to keep the cautious optimism on the table, also rejecting any near-term changes to the monetary policy, results from Alphabet, Facebook and Apple will be crucial for Wall Street.
Moving on, gold is likely to benefit from the US dollar declines and anticipated recovery in trading sentiment. However, any further worsening of the covid in Asia may propel the US dollar and drag the bright metal.
Technical analysis
· Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD to rise above $1800 on US T-bond yields moving below 1.55% – OCBC
Gold fell 0.4% on Friday to $1777.20 and questions remain if it can break above the $1800 resistance, having tried that multiple times last week to no avail. It may take US 10Y Treasuries moving below 1.55% to push gold above $1800, in the opinion of strategists at OCBC Bank.
Trying to break above the $1800 level
“Gold has tried to break the $1800 level on multiple occasions last week but have found a lack of conviction from gold bulls in doing so.”
“Both the US 10Y yield and the DXY index are at their lowest in about two months, which has, in turn, lent support to the precious metal. A break above the $1800 level, however, may probably require the 10Y yield to trade below 1.55%.”
· Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD to move in a range below $1800, bull-bear tug-of-war persists
Gold (XAU/USD) rebounded on Monday after finding support just under $1770. Range play is likely to extend below $1800 as the focus shifts to the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta reports.
Recapturing 21-SMA on the 4H chart to recall the XAU buyers
“The worsening covid situation in the emerging economies and a likely tax hike by Biden continue to put fresh bids under the greenback.”
“Investors would refrain from placing any directional bet ahead of Wednesday’s Fed outcome, which could leave the price of gold in a familiar range.”
“Traders will take cues from the US CB Consumer Confidence data and sentiment on Wall Street amid upcoming corporate earnings results.”
“The XAU bulls struggle to find acceptance above the 21-simple moving average (SMA) at $1782 while the downside remains cushioned by the upward-sloping 50-SMA at $1778. The range is getting tighter, implying that a breakout in either direction could be on the cards.”
“A sustained break above 21-SMA could fuel a rally towards Friday’s high of $1796, above which the $1800 mark could be probed. Alternatively, a four-hour candlestick closing below 50-SMA is likely to expose Monday’s low of $1768.”
· Silver fell 0.1% to $26.19 per ounce. Platinum was up 0.3% at $1,247.90.
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