• Dollar hovers near one-month low amid subdued U.S. debt yields

    19 Apr 2021 | Economic News
  

Dollar hovers near one-month low amid subdued U.S. debt yields

 

The dollar was pinned near a one-month low to major peers on Monday, with Treasury yields hovering near the lowest in five weeks, after the U.S. Federal Reserve reiterated its view that any spike in inflation was likely to be temporary.

 

The safe-haven greenback was also held down by improved risk sentiment amid a rally in global stocks to record highs.

 

Bitcoin nursed losses from Sunday, when it plunged by as much as 14% to $51,541. It last traded around $57,020.


The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six rivals, was at 91.623, not far from the low of 91.484 marked last week, a level not seen since March 18.

 

The greenback bought 108.655 yen , near the lowest since March 24.

 

The euro changed hands at $1.1958 , near the highest since March 4.

 

Benchmark 10-year yields could fall to as low as 1.47%, from around 1.57% currently, according to Weston.

 

Key technical points are 91.30, the March 18 low, for the dollar index, and $1.2000 for the euro, which could trigger a run to $1.22, he said.

 

The 10-year Treasury yield sank to as low as 1.5280% last week, from a more-than-one-year high of 1.7760% at the end of last month, reducing the dollar's appeal.

 

Wall Street's gains amid low volatility "should keep USD rallies contained and attract further USD sellers," Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Markets Ltd, a foreign exchange broker based in Melbourne, wrote in a client note.

 

Dollar net short positioning fell in the latest week to the lowest level since June 2018, according to calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday.

 

The chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo, Masafumi Yamamoto, sees the current quarter as a period of consolidation in U.S. yields and the dollar, with the benchmark Treasury yield potentially dropping below 1.5% and the dollar weakening below 108 yen.

 

The outline of President Joe Biden's infrastructure spending plan has already been priced in, and there will be limited progress in negotiations in the near term, Yamamoto said.

 

But the uptrend in U.S. yields and the dollar will resume in the third quarter, when Congress is likely to approve the plan, the U.S. vaccine rollout will be far along and market speculation about a tapering of Fed stimulus will be mounting, he said.

 

Bitcoin on Monday remained well below the record high of $64,895.22 reached on April 14 following its weekend plunge.

 

Data website CoinMarketCap cited a blackout in China's Xinjiang region, which reportedly powers a lot of bitcoin mining, for Sunday's selloff. read more

 

Analysts at National Australia Bank cited "speculation in several online reports" that the U.S. Treasury may crack down on money laundering within digital currencies for the sharp move lower.

 

The bitcoin rout also followed a decision on Friday by Turkey's central bank to ban the use of cryptocurrencies for purchases.

 

Despite recent weakness, the world's most popular cryptocurrency remains up 97% in 2021, after more than quadrupling last year.

 

Reference: Reuters, CoinDesk

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