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CORONAVIRUS CRISIS:

Ø  Total confirmed cases: More than 2,484,314

Ø  Total deaths: At least 170,501

Ø  The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 210 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances: the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan, and the Holland America's MS Zaandam cruise ship.

Ø  US cases: At least 792,938 (+179), and deaths: 42,518 (+4)

Ø  Spain cases: At least 200,210, and deaths: 20,852

Ø  Italy cases: At least 181,228, and deaths: 24,114

Ø  Thailand cases: At least 2,811, and deaths: 48

- US President Donald Trump tweeted out this Tuesday, he will sign an order temporary suspending immigration into the US, in order to protect the US jobs amid the coronavirus pandemic.

- Italy will announce before the end of this week its plans for the gradual reopening from a lockdown imposed to fight the coronavirus emergency that will be applied starting from May 4, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said on Tuesday.

 

- Lifting of lockdown must be gradual; if restrictions relaxed too soon, there will be a resurgence, said the World Health Organization’s (WHO) WEST Pacific Regional Director Kasai on Tuesday.

 

- Job losses across Asia-Pacific could double due to coronavirus, says S&P Global

Job losses across Asia Pacific could double due to the coronavirus pandemic — and some of these jobs may not come back for a while, S&P Global warned.

“Unemployment rates across Asia-Pacific could rise by well over 3 percentage points, twice as large as the average recession,” said S&P’s Asia Pacific Chief Economist Shaun Roache in a report Monday.

The services industries are among the first to feel the impact of those lockdowns, but that very sector is also what’s driving job creation in countries like Japan and South Korea, the ratings giant said.

Unemployment rates

Based on projected reduced growth of about 7.5 percentage points, S&P laid out the impact on job losses among major countries in the region.

These are the estimated increase in unemployment rates at their peak, about four quarters after the growth decline:

Australia: More than 3 percentage points.

Japan: More than 2 percentage points.

South Korea: More than 4 percentage points.

New Zealand: Close to 3 percentage points.

Thailand: Less than 1 percentage point.

 

- Emerging markets may get ‘left behind’ in the coronavirus crisis, says Eurasia Group

Many emerging markets lack the resources needed to manage the ongoing coronavirus crisis — and may end up getting “left behind” when the global economy eventually recovers, according to an analysis by risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

Generally, many emerging markets don’t have the capacity — both in their health-care systems and financial space — to effectively contain the outbreak while limiting the economic hit on businesses and households, said Robert Kahn, director of global strategy and global macro at the firm.

He pointed out that over the past month, developed economies such as the U.S. and Germany announced large amounts of stimulus to support businesses and households during the pandemic. But that’s not a move that many developing economies can follow, he said.

But emerging markets would experience a “delayed” peak in their outbreaks, the analysts wrote, without specifying when. That means that economic recovery in those countries would be “more staggered,” depending on their testing and social isolation capacity, the report read.

 

- U.S. economic shutdown may be too tight for 'optimal' outcome: Minneapolis Fed research

Current U.S. economic restrictions may be twice as tough as needed to balance the risks of the coronavirus pandemic against the economic needs of workers, according to research here released on Monday by the Minneapolis Federal Reserve.

The current restrictions, the research concluded, are shifting benefits from younger workers, who would be better off with looser rules, to older individuals for whom protection from the coronavirus is more vital. A middle ground, with more modest restrictions left in place until the end of July, produces the “optimal” outcome, it said.

 

·       The dollar resumed its climb against currencies of oil producers on Tuesday, as investors remained skittish after a historic plunge in U.S. crude futures to below zero and shied away from risk even as the benchmark bounced back.

Concerns about the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un following media reports that he was receiving treatment after undergoing a cardiovascular procedure also supported the dollar.

The dollar rose to 0.9702 Swiss franc CHF=EBS as safe-haven flows continued to support the U.S. currency. Sterling GBP=D3 fell 0.2% to $1.2411.

The dollar steadied at 107.47 yen JPY=EBS

The euro EUR=EBS eased to $1.0841. Against the pound, the common currency was little changed at 87.38 pence EURGBP=D3.

 

·       EUR/USD Price Analysis: Flashing red after Doji candle

EUR/USD is feeling the pull of gravity, having witnessed two-way or indecisive trading on Monday.

The currency pair is currently trading at 1.0850, representing a 0.12% drop on the day.

The buyers failed to penetrate the resistance of the trendline rising from March 23 and April 6 lows for the second day on Monday. More importantly, the currency pair created a Doji candle on Monday, reinforcing the bearish view put forward by the downside break of the trendline confirmed on Thursday.

That, alongside a below-50 or bearish reading on the 14-day relative strength index, suggests scope for a drop to 1.0812 (April 17 low). Acceptance under that would open the doors for a re-test of the March low of 1.0636.

Alternatively, a close above the Doji candle's high of 1.0897 would revive the immediate bullish setup and open the doors to 1.10.

 

·       EUR/USD Forecast: Seems vulnerable to test sub-1.0700 levels

Short-term technical outlook

From a technical perspective, nothing seems to have changed much for the pair and the overnight pullback reaffirmed last week's bearish break through a multi-week-old ascending trend-line. Hence, some follow-through weakness, even below the 1.0800 round-figure mark, now looks a distinct possibility. The pair is likely to aim towards challenging monthly lows support, around the 1.0770-65 region, before eventually falling further towards testing sub-1.0700 levels.

On the flip side, the 1.0900 mark now seems to have emerged as immediate resistance and is closely followed by the mentioned trend-line support break-point, currently near the 1.0925 region. A sustained move above the mentioned barriers could assist the pair to head back towards 50-day SMA, around the 1.0955-60 region. Some follow-through buying now seems to pave the way for a move beyond the key 1.10 psychological mark.

 

·       USD/JPY Price Analysis: Choppy inside symmetrical triangle below 200-HMA

While struggling between the broad US dollar strength and the safe-haven allure of the Japanese yen, USD/JPY registers mild gains, of 0.10% on a day, as taking rounds to 107.70 during the initial hours of Tokyo open on Tuesday.

The pair stays inside the weekly symmetrical triangle, as well as below 200-HMA, at present.

Hence, buyers are likely to enter the trade beyond 107.85/90 resistance confluence, comprising the pattern’s upper line and 200-HMA, whereas sellers may cheer the break below 107.50.

During the quote’s run-up beyond 107.90, a horizontal resistance, established since early-April, around 108.60, will be on the bulls’ radars.

On the contrary, 107.20 and 106.90 could entertain the bears during the pair’s downside below 107.50. Though, a sustained weakness past-106.90 will set the tone for the quote’s slump to March 10 high near 105.90.

 

·       European Union leaders meeting via videocall on Thursday are not expected to make any final decisions on exactly how to finance economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, diplomats and officials told Reuters.

During a preparatory discussion with EU national envoys on Monday, the bloc’s executive estimated the global outbreak could wipe off as much as a tenth of the continent’s economic output.

 

·       The Korean won weakened sharply on Tuesday against the dollar on unconfirmed reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is seriously ill.

As of 0225 GMT Tuesday, the Korean won fell 1.48% to trade at 1,238.60 per dollar. The South Korean markets saw sizable declines, with the Kospi down 2.15%.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was not seriously ill, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency said citing a government official on Tuesday, contradicting a CNN report he was in “grave danger” after a surgery.

 

·       The uncertainty of the situation and “what a potentially new regime might look like” is weighing on markets, Bank of America’ Securities’ Adarsh Sinha told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Tuesday.

“The first thing the (foreign exchange) market does is price in higher risk premium, which means a weaker currency, or a weaker Korean won,” said Sinha, who is co-head of Asia rates and foreign exchange strategy at Bank of America Securities.

 

·       Australia’s economic output is likely to fall by around 10% in the first half of 2020, with most of this decline taking place in the June quarter due to the hit from the COVID-19 pandemic, the central banker governor said on Tuesday.

The unemployment rate is likely to be around 10% by June, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe said. It was 5.2% in March.

 

·       U.S. oil prices hobbled back into positive territory on Tuesday after sinking below $0 for the first time ever, but international benchmark Brent dipped as the global coronavirus crisis severely reduces demand for crude.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for May delivery CLc1 was up $38.99 in thin trade at $1.36 a barrel by 0622 GMT after settling down at a discount of $37.63 a barrel in the previous session.

The May contract expires on Tuesday and the more-active June contract CLc2 rose 94 cents, or 4.6%, to $21.37 a barrel.

Global benchmark Brent crude for June delivery LCo1 was down 48 cents, or 1.9%, at $25.09 per barrel.

 

·       President Donald Trump said on Monday that his administration was considering the possibility of stopping incoming Saudi Arabian crude oil shipments as a measure to support the battered domestic drilling industry.

Trump said he had heard the proposal immediately before the news briefing. “We certainly have plenty of oil, so I’ll take a look at it,” he said.

 

·       Russia's oil giant Lukoil to cut output by 290,000 bpd

Lukoil, Russia's second-largest oil producer, is planning to cut its output by 18% or by 290,000 barrels per day as part of the new OPEC+ production cut deal, according to Russia's news agency Interfax.