• MTS Economic News 20200420

    20 Apr 2020 | Economic News


·         CORONAVIRUS CRISIS:

 

Ø  Total confirmed cases: More than 2,407,282

Ø  Total deaths: At least 165,049

Ø  The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 210 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances: the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan, and the Holland America's MS Zaandam cruise ship.

Ø  US cases: At least 746,303 and deaths: 40,548

Ø  Spain cases: At least 198,674 and deaths: 20,453

Ø  Italy cases: At least 178,972 and deaths: 23,660

Ø  Thailand cases: At least 2,765 and deaths: 47



- Don't reopen yet, governors tell Trump as coronavirus deaths cross 40,000

Governors in U.S. states hardest hit by the novel coronavirus sparred with President Donald Trump over his claims they have enough tests and should quickly reopen their economies as more protests are planned over the extension of stay-at-home orders.

New York continued to see hospitalizations decline to 16,000 from a high of 18,000, and the number of patients being kept alive by ventilators also fell. There were 507 new deaths, down from a high of more than 700 a day.

“If the data holds and if this trend holds, we are past the high point and all indications at this point are that we are on a descent,” Governor Andrew Cuomo said at a daily briefing, while urging residents to continue social distancing. “We showed you can control the beast. But it’s only half time. We still have to make sure we keep the beast down.”


US tops more than 750,000 cases as Trump says he will use DPA to increase medical swabs

The total number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. is currently at 755,533, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The virus has now killed more than 40,000 people in the U.S., nearly a quarter of all deaths from Covid-19 across the globe, according to JHU data.

New York, the current epicenter of the outbreak in the U.S., is recording over 500 deaths a day. President Donald Trump said at a press conference that his administration is looking at helping rural hospitals which have been hurt very badly. He also said he was going to use the Defense Production Act to increase swab production at one facility amid coronavirus testing shortage. The president’s announcement comes after governors demanded federal help to ramp up testing across the U.S.


Coronavirus relief deal for U.S. small businesses may come Monday: Trump

U.S. Democrats and Republicans are near agreement on approving extra money to help small businesses hurt by the coronavirus pandemic and could seal a deal as early as Monday, President Donald Trump said, despite hopes for a deal on Sunday.

Trump told his daily White House briefing on the crisis that Republicans were “close” to getting a deal with Democrats, and suggested there could be a resolution on Monday.


Thailand reports 33 new coronavirus cases, no new deaths

Thailand reports 33 new coronavirus infections, bringing the nation’s total to 2,733 cases, a senior official said on Saturday.

Eleven of the new cases were in Bangkok and had a history of going to public areas, said Taweesin Wisanuyothin, a spokesman for the government’s Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration.


France says coronavirus crisis easing, but far from over

The coronavirus situation in France is improving “slowly but surely” and shortages of protective gear such as face masks are easing, Prime Minister Edouard Philippe said on Sunday, although he warned that the crisis was far from over.


Spain sees lowest coronavirus death count rise in a month, global death toll tops 160,000

New deaths from the coronavirus in Spain increased by 410 on Sunday, the lowest rise in deaths in around a month for the country with the third-highest coronavirus death count in the world. The daily death increase on Saturday was 565, and the total has reached 20,453, according to the Spansh.

Sunday’s daily increase in deaths is the lowest since March 22. The peak in daily deaths thus far was 950 fatalities on April 2. The country’s health ministry also reported an increase in cases to 195,944 from 191,726 on Saturday.


Germany signals more help for businesses, workers struggling amid the coronavirus pandemic

Politicians in German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition government on Sunday signaled further support for struggling businesses and consumers in the coronavirus crisis, focusing on hotels, restaurants and pay for short-time workers.

Dehoga, an industry association that includes a large share of often small family-owned operations, told Bild am Sonntag that some 70,000 restaurant and hotel operators, which employ 223,000 people, could face insolvency as they stood to lose up to 10 billion euros of sales by the end of April.

Economy Minister Peter Altmaier of Merkel’s conservative party said in an interview with the same newspaper he agreed the sector needed support to get up on its feet again.

“It is clear that we will need additional help to prevent a large part of these companies giving up and disappearing from the market,” he said.


Germany may rein in coronavirus debt if economy improves: finance minister

Germany may be able to manage the fiscal impact of the coronavirus crisis without exceeding approved debt levels if the economy recovers in the second half of the year, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said in an interview published on Sunday.

Parliament suspended a debt brake to fight the crisis on March 25 with a supplementary budget of 156 billion euro ($169.67 billion), 100 billion euros for an economic stability fund that can take direct equity stakes in companies, and 100 billion euros in credit to public-sector development bank KfW.

The measures were predominantly aimed at funding healthcare and helping companies.

Asked if 156 billion could remain the top level of new debt, Scholz told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper: “If we manage to move the economic curve upwards again in the second half of the year, then this could be the case.”


Global economy may not fully recover from the coronavirus crisis by 2021, IMF chief economist says

Global economic activity, which has been hit by the coronavirus pandemic, may not fully recover even by the end of 2021, said Gita Gopinath, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.

The fund this week downgraded its economic forecast. It now expects the global economy to shrink by 3% this year before growing 5.8% next year — a rebound that Gopinath described as a “partial recovery.”

“We have a recovery projected for 2021 of 5.8% growth, but that is a partial recovery,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Friday. 

“So even by the end of 2021, we’re expecting level of economic activity to be below what we had projected before the virus,” she added.


UK shopping trips plummet and housing market freezes after lockdown

The number of British people leaving their homes to go shopping has slumped by 83% since the government closed non-essential retail outlets last month to slow the spread of COVID-19, the British Retail Consortium trade body said on Monday.


Australia demands coronavirus enquiry, adding to pressure on China

Australia on Sunday added to growing pressure on China over its handling of the novel coronavirus, questioning its transparency and demanding an international investigation into the origins of the virus and how it spread.

The coronavirus is believed to have emerged in a market selling wildlife in the central Chinese city of Wuhan late last year. It has spread around the world infecting some 2.3 million people and killing nearly 160,000 of them, according to Reuters calculations.

Australia’s foreign minister, Marise Payne, said her concern about China’s transparency was at a “a very high point.”


China’s Wuhan raises coronavirus death toll by 50% after city revises figures


Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in China, has revised upwards the number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths in the city after “a city-wide investigation,” state media reported.

The Wuhan government said total confirmed infections in the city have been revised to 50,333 as of Thursday, an increase of 325 cases, while the cumulative number of deaths is now 3,869 — 1,290 more than its previous count, according to CNBC’s translation of a Chinese language report by Xinhua News Agency.

Following the revision by Wuhan, China’s National Health Commission said Friday that the death toll in mainland China has been revised from 3,342 to 4,632. Meanwhile, total confirmed cases have been revised from 82,367 to 82,692, the NHC said.


Coronavirus crisis will erase nearly a decade of oil demand growth this year, IEA says

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said Wednesday that it expects the coronavirus crisis to erase almost a decade of oil demand growth in 2020, with countries around the world effectively having to shut down in response to the pandemic.

A public health crisis has prompted governments to impose draconian measures on the lives of billions of people. It has created an unprecedented demand shock in energy markets, with mobility brought close to a standstill.

Activity in the transportation sector has fallen dramatically almost everywhere, the IEA said, noting that confinement measures had been implemented in 187 countries and territories in response to the Covid-19 outbreak.

“Even assuming that travel restrictions are eased in the second half of the year, we expect that global oil demand in 2020 will fall by 9.3 million barrels a day versus 2019, erasing almost a decade of growth.”

In its closely-watched monthly report, the Paris-based agency said demand in April is estimated to be 29 million barrels per day lower than a year ago, hitting a level last seen in 1995.

For the second quarter of the year, oil demand is expected to be 23.1 million barrels per day below year-ago levels.

Yet, while a recovery is forecast to be underway in the second half of the year, the IEA said it expects this to be gradual and, in December, demand will still be down 2.7 million barrels per day year-on-year.


ECB will do more if needed to keep prices stable: Villeroy

The European Central Bank will take further action if necessary to keep prices stable in line with its mandate, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in a newspaper interview published on Saturday.

With inflation below its 2% target, the ECB will have to keep interest rates “very low” and liquidity “very abundant”, Villeroy, who is also governor of the Bank of France, told French weekly Le Journal du Dimanche.

 

·         Dollar ticks lower as some risk aversion wanes

The dollar ticked lower on Friday as investors, cautiously optimistic about the results of a drug trial and President Donald Trump’s plan to reopen the economy, regained some appetite for risk.

Sentiment was boosted overnight by a media report detailing encouraging partial data from experimental drug trials on severely ill COVID-19 patients at a University of Chicago hospital.

The dollar also fell against the euro EUR= and the British pound GBP=, though it strengthened against the Japanese yen JPY= and the Swiss franc CHF=, other safe-haven currencies.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 99.807 after crossing the 100 mark last week.

The Japanese yen traded at 107.68 per dollar after touching levels below 107.4 in the previous trading week. The Australian dollar changed hands at $0.6341 following turbulent trading last week that saw it rising to levels above $0.64 and falling below $0.63.

 

·         Oil mixed as weak Chinese data, growing U.S. supplies offset Trump plan to ease lockdown

Oil prices were mixed on Friday, with weak Chinese economic figures and rapidly filling U.S. crude storage offsetting bullishness built on U.S. President Donald Trump’s outlines for the U.S. economy to emerge from the coronavirus shutdown.

U.S. crude futures hit a more than 18-year-low, extending their losses in comparison to global benchmark Brent, in part due to the coming expiration of the current May contract.

However, later-dated futures contracts were also down as the country’s storage rapidly fills, and producers and traders expect output cuts in coming months.

Brent futures LCOc1 rose 26 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $28.08 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate crude contract (WTI) for June CLc2, which became the day’s more active contract, ended the session down 50 cents, or 2%, at $25.03.

The less active prompt WTI for May delivery CLc1 tumbled by $1.60, or 8.1%, to $18.27, ahead of its April 21 expiration as investors rapidly switched out of that contract into June futures. The contract slumped to a low of $17.31 a barrel during the session, the lowest since November 2001.

May WTI futures slumped nearly 20% on the week, based on last Thursday’s settle, while Brent dropped nearly 11%. Markets were closed last Friday for Good Friday.

China’s economy shrank 6.8% year-on-year in the three months to March 31, the first such decline since quarterly records began in 1992. The nation’s daily refining output fell to a 15-month low, though there are some signs of recovery as the country begins to ease coronavirus containment measures.

Prices found some support as the U.S. plans to ease lockdown measures after Trump laid out new guidelines for states to emerge from a coronavirus shutdown in a three-stage approach, but the early boost to Brent prices was largely short-lived.


Crude oil futures drop at open of Asian trading

Crude oil futures fell in electronic trading on Sunday evening, with U.S. futures touching levels not seen since November 2001, extending last week’s weakness on the back of sliding demand because of the COVID-19 pandemic that has killed more than 159,000 people worldwide.

The front-month May futures contract was down 4%, or 76 cents, to $17.50 a barrel as of 6:23 p.m. EDT (2223 GMT). At one point, U.S. futures hit $17.29 a barrel, the lowest since November 2001.

That contract is expiring on Tuesday, and the June contract, which is becoming more actively traded, was down 36 cents, or 1.45, to $24.71 a barrel. Brent was also weaker, falling 15 cents, or 0.5%, to $27.93 a barrel.

The oil industry has been swiftly reducing production in the face of an estimated 30% decline in fuel demand worldwide.

 

Reference: Reuters, CNBC



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