• MTS Economic News 20200416

    16 Apr 2020 | Economic News



·         
Latest on the spread of the coronavirus around the world

Ø  Total confirmed cases: More than 2,083,033

Ø  Total deaths: At least 134,603

Ø  The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 210 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances: the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan, and the Holland America's MS Zaandam cruise ship.

Ø  US cases: At least 644,089, and deaths: 28,529

Ø  Spain cases: At least 180,659, and deaths: 18,812

Ø  Italy cases: At least 165,155 , and deaths: 21,645

Ø  Thailand cases: At least 2,643, and deaths: 43


Trump says US has ‘passed the peak’ of coronavirus outbreak

President Donald Trump said the U.S. has “passed the peak” of the coronavirus outbreak, which has infected more than 632,000 people in America.

“While we must remain vigilant, it is clear that our aggressive strategy is working,” Trump said at a White House news briefing with coronavirus task force on Wednesday. “The battle continues, but the data suggests that nationwide we have passed the peak on new cases.”

Trump said new cases are “declining” in New York, which has more confirmed cases than any country outside the U.S. He added that cases are “flat” in Denver and Detroit, while other cities including Baltimore and Philadelphia “are showing great signs of success.”

“Some states are looking at other states and they’re saying I can’t imagine what they’re going through because they’re not in that position. They’re in very good shape,” he said. “I would say that we have 20 states, at least, but you really have 29 that are in extremely good shape. You have others that are getting much better.”

Trump to announce 'guidelines' on reopening U.S. economy Thursday

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that data suggested the country had passed the peak on new coronavirus infections, and said he would announce “new guidelines” for reopening the economy at a news conference on Thursday.

“The battle continues but the data suggests that the nation has passed the peak on new cases,” Trump told his daily White House news briefing.

WHO regrets Trump funding halt as global coronavirus cases top 2 million

The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday he regrets U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to pull funding for the agency, but that now is the time for the world unite in its fight against the new coronavirus.

Germany eases out of coronavirus lockdown with partial opening of shops, schools

Germany has achieved a “fragile intermediate success” in its the fight against the coronavirus and will take small steps out of lockdown with the partial reopening of shops next week and schools from May 4, Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Wednesday.

Social distancing rules would remain in place until May 3 under the measures that Merkel and the governors of Germany’s 16 states agreed at Wednesday’s meeting. They plan to meet again on April 30 to review how to proceed after May 3.

UK virus outbreak 'probably' peaking, but too soon to ease lockdown

Britain’s coronavirus outbreak is probably peaking, but it is too early to start relaxing restrictions, officials said as critics warned that the country may end up with the worst death rate in Europe due to government failings.

Bank of Canada says coronavirus to trigger huge slump, eyes possible June restart     

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday said the coronavirus outbreak was set to trigger the biggest ever near-term domestic slump, but expressed optimism the economy might be able to start reopening by June.

EU gives advice on lifting coronavirus lockdowns: Don’t all return to work at once

The European Union (EU) has urged countries to adopt a gradual and targeted approach to lifting lockdown measures, with new cases across the continent finally slowing.

In guidance published Wednesday, the EU’s executive arm, the European Commission, instructed countries to take gradual actions, relaxing restrictions in stages and allowing time between each action to measure the impact. The advice echoes that released on Tuesday by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Coronavirus could cause more countries to default on their debt, economist says

An increasing number of countries could default on their debt in the coming 12-18 months as governments globally increase spending to limit the economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic, an economist said on Wednesday.

“I do think we will see some issues there, possibly we could see a euro zone crisis come back with countries like Greece or Italy ... likely to be at the center of that,” Simon Baptist, global chief economist at consultancy The Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection.”

“Across the emerging world, I’ll pick out countries like South Africa and Brazil as being likely to suffer a further crisis as a result of this,” he added. “And, of course, Argentina has effectively gone back into sovereign default already.”

Citigroup profit tumbles 46% on expected credit card losses

Citigroup Inc (C.N) reported a 46% plunge in quarterly profit on Wednesday as it prepared for losses driven primarily by its credit card business, and analysts raised worries that there is more pain to come as the economic outlook darkens.

Japan urges citizens to isolate as reports warn of 400,000 deaths

Japan urged its citizens on Wednesday to stay home, as media reports warned that as many as 400,000 of them could die of the coronavirus without urgent action, and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came under pressure to hand out more cash.

·         Dollar jumps as investors seek safety after dismal US data

Bleak U.S. retail sales figures and a dramatic drop in New York state manufacturing data sent the dollar higher on Wednesday as investors fled risk assets for safe havens.

Wednesday’s data underlined growing investor fears that the damage to the global economy from the coronavirus outbreak will be long and protracted.

The U.S. dollar index, which had fallen in the four previous trading days, rose as high as 99.98, but had returned some of those gains later in the morning, last trading up 0.6%.


·         U.S. retail sales, factory output sink as coronavirus batters economy

U.S. retail sales suffered a record drop in March and output at factories declined by the most since 1946, buttressing analysts’ views that the economy contracted in the first quarter at its sharpest pace in decades as extraordinary measures to control the spread of the novel coronavirus shut down the country.

Retail sales plunged 8.7% last month, the biggest decline since the government started tracking the series in 1992, the Commerce Department said. Data for February was revised slightly up to show retail sales slipping 0.4% instead of falling 0.5% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales tumbling 8.0% in March. Compared to March last year, retail sales dropped 6.2%.

The $46.2 billion decrease in sales in March was almost equal in a single month to the $49.1 billion peak-to-trough decline that unfolded over 16 months in the Great Recession.

The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday in its April “Beige Book” report of anecdotal information on business activity collected from contacts nationwide that “economic activity contracted sharply and abruptly across all regions in the United States as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

 

·         The economic data is even worse than Wall Street feared: ‘The economy is clearly in ruins here’



The economic reports showed the double whammy of state shutdowns in mid-March on two pillars of the economy — the consumer and business. The reports were even more dire than expected, and foreshadow even worse declines in April’s activity, with state shutdowns affecting areas responsible for more than 90% of the economy.

“The economy is clearly in ruins here,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “Nobody is buying cars, down 25.6%, nobody is buying furniture, down 26.8%, and eating and drinking places were down 26.5%.

The economic decline, which started in the first quarter is expected to reach its trough in the second quarter. Economists anticipate an unprecedented drop of more than 30% in GDP for the second quarter. JPMorgan economists expect a 40% decline in the second quarter, on top of a 10% drop in the first quarter.


·         Japan business mood slumps to decade low on coronavirus hit: Reuters Tankan

Japanese business confidence plunged to fresh decade lows in April as firms reported widespread damage from the coronavirus pandemic which is threatening to throw the world economy into recession, the Reuters Tankan survey showed on Thursday.

The global spread of the highly contagious virus has caused entire regions to be placed on lockdown, upended supply chains and halted services and production around the world.


·         Oil drops to more than 18-year low on inventory build, supply concerns

Oil dropped to its lowest level in more than 18 years on Wednesday amid reports suggesting persistent oversupply and collapsing demand due to global coronavirus-related lockdowns could continue to hammer prices.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday forecast a 29 million barrel per day (bpd) dive in April oil demand to levels not seen in 25 years and said no output cut could fully offset the near-term falls facing the market.

Brent crude fell $1.91, or 6.45%, to settle at $27.69, giving up an earlier gain. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 24 cents, or 1.19%, to settle at $19.87 per barrel, its lowest settle since Feb. 2002.

According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, for the week ending April 10 inventory increased by 19.2 million barrels. Analysts polled by FactSet had been expecting a rise of 12.02 million barrels.

 

Reference: CNBC, Reuters, Worldometers


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