• MTS Economic News_20200331

    31 Mar 2020 | Economic News

CORONAVIRUS CRISIS UPDATES:

-Total confirmed cases: More than 787,273

-Total deaths: At least 37,846

-The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 200 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan, and the Holland America's MS Zaandam cruise ship.)

-US cases: At least 164,320, and deaths: 3,173

-Italy cases: At least 101,739, and deaths: 11,591

-Thailand cases: At least 1,651 (+127), and deaths: 10 (+1)


- Coronavirus epidemic 'far from over' in Asia: WHO official

The coronavirus epidemic is “far from over” in the Asia-Pacific region, and current measures to curb the spread of the virus are buying time for countries to prepare for large-scale community transmissions, a WHO official said on Tuesday.

Even with all the measures, the risk of transmission in the region will not go away as long as the pandemic continues, said Takeshi Kasai, Regional Director for the Western Pacific at the World Health Organization (WHO).


- UK coronavirus outbreak shows early signs of slowing, expert says, but restrictions may last for six months

The UK could remain under coronavirus emergency measures for as long as six months, a top health official has said, even as one expert said there were early signs that the outbreak was slowing in Britain.

Curbs on normal life may need to continue through the summer and into the autumn in order to avoid progress being "wasted," England's Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jenny Harries said on Sunday.

Harries suggested that while lockdown rules imposed last week could be relaxed once the curve of cases begins to flatten, strict social distancing guidelines will likely remain in place.

Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London whose modeling has influenced UK government policy, told BBC Radio on Monday that he believes "the epidemic is just about slowing in the UK right now."


- Mexico declared a health emergency on Monday and issued stricter rules aimed at containing the fast-spreading coronavirus after its number of cases surged past 1,000 and the death toll rose sharply.

- Australia on Tuesday reported a sustained fall in the country’s rate of new coronavirus infections but officials and experts warned against complacency, stressing the need for further strict social distancing policies.

- Indonesia’s foreign minister said on Tuesday the government would ban all arrivals and transit by foreigners in Indonesia as the number of coronavirus cases and deaths rise.

-Vietnam will begin 15 days of social distancing from Wednesday to curb community transmission of the coronavirus, the Southeast Asian country’s prime minister said on Tuesday.


· The dollar rose against the yen on Tuesday as Japanese investors and companies rushed to cover a greenback shortage before their fiscal year end, but sentiment remained fragile as the global coronavirus crisis worsened.

China’s yuan held steady even after a key survey showed manufacturing returned to growth in March, but investors remain skeptical of the uptick given many businesses are still struggling to resume operations from coronavirus disruptions.

The pound fell against the dollar and the euro as a sovereign ratings downgrade continued to weigh on sterling, underlining the public finances strain from a much needed massive fiscal stimulus.

Tuesday is the last trading data for Japan’s fiscal year and the end of the quarter for major investors elsewhere, which could lead to some volatile swings as big currency market players close their books.

However, analysts warn that an almost certain global recession due to the coronavirus will remain a dominant influence in trading and eventually favor currencies least affected by the economic downturn.

The dollar rose 0.45% to 108.31 yen JPY=EBS on Tuesday.

In the onshore market, the yuan CNY=CFXS was little changed at 7.0888 against the dollar.

The euro EUR=EBS fell 0.22% to $1.1017. Traders are bracing for data expected to show a rise in German unemployment as the global economy reels from the coronavirus pandemic.


· Former Fed head Yellen: Impossible to know how deep recession will be

While the coronavirus outbreak has caused a rapid and sharp downturn in the economic activity, it is impossible to predict how deep the recession would be, former US Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said on Monday, according to Xinhua News and Reuters News.

Key quotes

The downturn has been rapid and sharp and it's different than any we've ever experienced in America.

Every indication so far suggests there will be a huge plunge in output in the second quarter.

Frankly, it's impossible to know at this point how deep the recession will be. It depends critically on how long the period of social distancing lasts.

The best-case scenario would be a V-shaped recession, but if containment measures lead to more layoffs and bankruptcies, a prolonged recession could be seen.


· Moody’s cuts outlook on $6.6 trillion US corporate debt pile to ‘negative

Moody’s Investors Service has cut its outlook on corporate debt to negative, saying that an economy about to tip into recession because of the coronavirus will result in rising default rates.

The ratings agency warned that sectors “most sensitive to consumer demand and sentiment” will be especially hard-hit due to social distancing measures that slashed economic activity. They include global passenger airlines, the lodging and cruise industries, and autos.

In addition, plummeting energy prices will leave the oil and gas sector exposed, while banks also will face a challenging environment amid falling interest rates that eat into profitability and a deteriorating economy that will undermine credit quality.

Nonfinancial corporate debt totaled $6.6 trillion at the end of 2019, a 78% increase since the Great Recession ended in mid-2009.


· Coronavirus triggers collapse in garment industry demand, putting jobs in Asia at risk

The garment industry is witnessing a collapse in demand due to the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak, putting jobs across Asia at risk.

“Across the entire industry, shops are closed, brands and retailers actually right now have an oversupply situation with whatever orders they have placed. They fear that they may not be able to sell it, so they are actually canceling orders or delaying shipments of orders,” said Stanley Szeto, executive chairman of Lever Style, a Hong Kong-based garment maker.

“I guess nobody is lacking a shirt to go out,” said Szeto, who is also an honorary chairman at the Textile Council of Hong Kong.

Lever Style’s customers include Hugo Boss and Everlane.

Asia is key for garment manufacturing and many jobs in the region will be at risk, potentially causing social problems in countries like Bangladesh, Cambodia and China that are dependent on the export economy, Szeto told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday.

“A lot of factories in Asia they’re seeing orders dry up in a few weeks,” he said.


· Coronavirus will hit profitability of Asia Pacific banks through 2021, says Fitch

Asia Pacific banks will find it increasingly challenging to maintain their financial performance as economies around the world get hit by the coronavirus pandemic, Fitch Ratings said.

The ratings agency earlier this month downgraded the outlook for 10 banking systems in the region to “negative.” All 17 banking systems in Asia Pacific that Fitch assesses now have a “negative” outlook.


· Factory activity in China unexpectedly expanded in March from a collapse the month before, but analysts caution that a durable near-term recovery is far from assured as the global coronavirus crisis knocks foreign demand and threatens a steep economic slump.

China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52 in March from a plunge to a record low of 35.7 in February, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Tuesday, above the 50-point mark that separates monthly growth from contraction.


· Volkswagen expects vehicle sales in China, the world’s largest car market, to quadruple in March, it said, pointing to a recovery following the coronavirus pandemic.

Woellenstein said he expected vehicle sales of up to 1 million in March, up from 250,000 in February.


· Huawei reported slowing profit growth in 2019 as the U.S. blacklisting the Chinese technology giant weighed on its business.


· Britons made over 79 million extra grocery shopping trips in the four weeks to March 21 year-on-year as they stocked their “pandemic pantries”, driving a 20.5% jump in supermarket sales, industry data published on Tuesday showed.


· Oil recovered ground on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to talks to stabilize energy markets, with benchmarks climbing off 18-year lows hit as the coronavirus outbreak cut fuel demand worldwide.

Brent crude LCOc1 was up by 30 cents, or 1.3%, at $23.06 a barrel by 0635 G5MT, after closing on Monday at $22.76, its lowest finish since November 2002.

U.S. crude Clc1 was up by $1.21, or 6.0%, at $21.30 a barrel, after settling in the earlier session at $20.09, lowest since February 2002.


Reference: Reuters, CNBC, CNN, Worldometers





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