• MTS Economic News_20200320

    20 Mar 2020 | Economic News

· Dollar pauses on way to best week since 2008 crisis

The dollar lost steam on Friday after an ascent that left it set for its biggest weekly gain since the 2008 global financial crisis, as the coronavirus pandemic caused a stampede for cash that has trampled asset markets.

The dollar is up about 3.5% on a basket of currencies through a week when investors have liquidated everything from stocks to bonds, gold and commodities.

The Australian dollar led Friday’s partial recovery among beaten-down majors with a 3% gain to $0.5897. Sterling rose 1.5% from a 35-year low to $1.1654.

The yen rose 0.7% to 109.97 per dollar. The South Korean won rallied more than 3% from an 11-year low, amid broader gains in regional stock markets.


CORONAVIRUS UPDATES:

- Total confirmed cases: More than 199,264

- Total deaths: At least 10,049

- Affecting 182 countries and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship).

- US cases: At least 14,366, and deaths: 217

- Italy cases: At least 41,035, and deaths: 3,405

- Iran cases: At least 18,407, and deaths: 1,284

- Thailand cases: At least 322, and deaths: 1



· Testing for coronavirus vaccine could start next month

Trials of a coronavirus vaccine could begin within the next month, the British government’s health agency has said, as it prepares to start evaluating a drug developed by Oxford University.

Scientists at Public Health England (PHE) could sanction human testing well ahead of the usual time frame for drug development.

The health agency is only due to start preliminary evaluation of the vaccine on animals next week.

· Chinese military scientists have been ordered to win the global race for a coronavirus vaccine

The Chinese military has been ordered to join the race to develop the world's first vaccine for Covid-19, according to military and scientific sources.

The state broadcaster CCTV reported on Tuesday that a research team led by Major General Chen Wei, a top epidemiologist and virologist with the Academy of Military Medical Sciences (AMMS), had been authorised to start a clinical trial.

CCTV described the vaccine being developed by Chen's team alongside Tianjin-based CanSino Biologics as the front-runner among nine possible treatments being worked on by Chinese scientists.

Researchers around the world are scrambling to develop a vaccine for the disease, and one expert said the Chinese leadership would feel they had "lost face" if the Americans beat them to it.

· Coronavirus deaths in Italy overtake China as economic damage mounts

The world’s richest nations poured unprecedented aid into the global economy on Thursday as coronavirus cases ballooned in the new epicentre Europe, with the number of deaths in Italy outstripping those in mainland China, where the virus originated.

· Malaysia will deploy the army starting Sunday to assist the police in enforcing a restricted movement order aimed at keeping people at home to stem the spread of the new coronavirus, reported Reuters.

Malaysia has reported 900 confirmed cases of the new coronavirus — the highest number in Southeast Asia — and two deaths as of Thursday, according to the health ministry. Of the confirmed cases, 576 are linked to a gathering of 16,000 Muslim missionaries last month in the outskirts of capital Kuala Lumpur, according to Reuters.

· Vietnam will temporarily suspend visa-free travel for citizens of Japan, Russia and Belarus starting Saturday, the country’s foreign affairs ministry said in a statement.

· Brazil announced it will bar citizens from some countries affected by the outbreak, from entering its country. These include the European Union, China, Japan, Australia, Malaysia and South Korea, according to a Reuters report. The United States is exempted from the ban.

· India Prime Minister Narendra Modi told residents to observe a one-day curfew on March 22, in a video address on Thursday night. He urged people to stay indoors from 7 a.m. until 9 p.m.

“The success of a people’s curfew on 22nd March, and the experience gained from it, will also prepare us for our upcoming challenges,” Modi said, according to an official English translation of his remarks.

· Italy’s Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri said on Friday that European Union bonds are needed to fight the coronavirus emergency hobbling the block’s countries.

· German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier wants to loosen anti-trust laws to allow greater cooperation between retail businesses in the fight against coronavirus, magazine Der Spiegel reported on Friday.

· The foreign ministers of South Korea, China and Japan will hold a video conference on Friday to foster cooperation on the coronavirus pandemic, Seoul’s foreign ministry said.

The ministers are expected to share information on the outbreak in their countries and discuss ways to prevent the further spread of the virus while maintaining economic and people-to-people exchanges.

· The foreign ministers of South Korea, China and Japan expressed their support for Tokyo to host “complete” Tokyo Olympics at a video conference held on Friday, South Korea’s foreign ministry said.

· The Bank of England said on Friday it was cancelling this year’s stress test of eight major banks and building societies to enable them to focus on providing lending through the coronavirus crisis.

· China kept a benchmark lending rate unchanged on Friday, defying expectations for a reduction with the economy jolted by the coronavirus pandemic although policymakers will likely need to loosen lending rates soon to free up funds.

The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) CNYLPR1Y=CFXS was left unchanged at 4.05% from the previous monthly fixing while the five-year LPR CNYLPR5Y=CFXS remained at 4.75%.

· China kept a benchmark lending rate unchanged on Friday, defying expectations for a reduction with the economy jolted by the coronavirus pandemic although policymakers will likely need to loosen lending rates soon to free up funds.

The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) CNYLPR1Y=CFXS was left unchanged at 4.05% from the previous monthly fixing while the five-year LPR CNYLPR5Y=CFXS remained at 4.75%.

· The European Central Bank’s new crisis response package to fight the impact of the coronavirus outbreak impact will be effective, ECB governing council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Friday.

Villeroy, who is also governor of the Bank of France, told French BFM Business radio that there would be no liquidity problems.

Villeroy also urged companies drawing on credit lines unnecessarily as a precaution to be reasonable.

· U.S. Senate will seek deal on $1 trillion coronavirus economic aid package

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell introduced emergency legislation on Thursday to stem the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, and Republicans and Democrats agreed to meet on Friday to seek an agreement.

The $1 trillion-plus package will include direct financial help for Americans, relief for small businesses and their employees, steps to stabilize the economy and new support for healthcare professionals and coronavirus patients, McConnell said.

“We are ready to act as soon as agreement with our colleagues across the aisle can be reached,” he said on the Senate floor. “The Senate is not going anywhere until we take action.”

A vote could still be days away, said Republican Senator Lamar Alexander.

· Oil extends recovery as Trump hints at intervening in Saudi-Russia price war

Oil prices recovered further on Friday, following steep gains in the previous session after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted he may intervene in the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia at an “appropriate time”.

Prices were also supported by United States’ plans to buy up to 30 million barrels of crude oil for its emergency stockpile by the end of June, while regulators in the country’s largest oil-producing state Texas were reportedly considering curtailing production.

The more active West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures contract for May CLc2 was up 43 cents, or 1.7% at $26.34 a barrel by 0540 GMT. The contract rose as much as 5.5% to $27.34 per barrel earlier in the session.

U.S. crude futures for April CLc1 also rose 43 cents to $25.65 a barrel. The front-month April contract, which spiked 24% on Thursday, expires later on Friday.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 climbed 28 cents, or about 1%, to $28.75 per barrel.

The international benchmark rose 14.4% on Thursday in its biggest one-day gain since September, but was on track for its fourth consecutive weekly drop on Friday.

U.S. crude and Brent have both collapsed about 40% in the last two weeks since talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, broke down, which led Saudi Arabia to ramp up supply.

· OPEC supply curbs, U.S. measures could support oil prices near term: Goldman

Supply restraint by core-OPEC producers could push second-quarter Brent oil prices up to $30 a barrel, while U.S. measures to support the market could underpin prices in the near term, Goldman Sachs said in a research note.

Citing Wall Street Journal reports that the United States was considering intervening in the ongoing Saudi-Russian price war and Texas regulators may curb oil output, the U.S. investment bank said such action would reduce global and U.S. domestic supplies.

While any U.S. measures could support the oil market into the second half of the year, however, Goldman Sachs said accompanying supply cuts would still not be enough to offset the 8 million barrels per day (bpd) demand loss - brought about by countries slowing economic activity to halt the spread of the coronavirus which has caused nearly 10,000 deaths worldwide.

U.S. production quotas could create a $5 to $10 upside to Goldman Sachs’ West Texas Intermediate price forecast of $40 to $45 a barrel in 2021, the bank said.


Reference: Reuters, CNBC, FXStreet, Worldometers

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