• MTS Economic News 20200320

    20 Mar 2020 | Economic News


· CORONAVIRUS UPDATES:

- Total confirmed cases: More than 244,979

- Total deaths: At least 10,035

- The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 179 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan).

- US cases: At least 13,865 (+4,606), and deaths: 211 (+61)

- Italy cases: At least 41,035 (+5,322), and deaths: 3,405 (+427)

- Iran cases: At least 18,407 (+1,046), and deaths: 1,284 (+149)

- Thailand cases: At least 272 (+60), and deaths: 1

- Coronavirus deaths in Italy overtake China as economic damage mounts

The world’s richest nations poured unprecedented aid into the global economy on Thursday as coronavirus cases ballooned in the new epicentre Europe, with the number of deaths in Italy outstripping those in mainland China, where the virus originated.

With over 242,000 infections and nearly 10,000 deaths, the epidemic has stunned the world and drawn comparisons with painful periods such as World War Two, the 2008 financial crisis and the 1918 Spanish flu.

U.N. chief Antonio Guterres warned that a global recession, “perhaps of record dimensions”, was a near certainty.

- Trump cancels in-person G-7 meeting set for June at Camp David

President Donald Trump has canceled June’s in-person meeting of leaders from the Group of Seven nations, which was set to take place at Camp David, as the world fights the spread of the coronavirus.

Instead, the summit will be conducted by video conference. The move adheres to guidelines about social distancing for combating the virus’ spread.

The president will also hold video conferences with the leaders in May and April, Deere added. Trump and the other G-7 chiefs held a video conference earlier this week, as well, as the coronavirus continues to spread in the United States and abroad.

Trump has said the coronavirus crisis in the United States, which has rocked markets and spurred fears of a recession, could last until July or August.

- California estimates 25.5 million residents — 56% of the state — will get virus in next 8 weeks

California estimates that more than half of the state — 25.5 million people — will get the new coronavirus over the next eight weeks, according to a letter sent by Gov. Gavin Newsom to U.S. President Donald Trump.

“In the last 24 hours, we had 126 new COVID-19 cases, a 21 percent increase. In some parts of our state, our case rate is doubling every four days,” Newsom wrote in a letter dated Wednesday. Newsom asked Trump to dispatch the USNS Mercy Hospital Ship to the Port of Los Angeles through Sept. 1 to help with the influx of expected cases.

The state reported nearly 699 confirmed cases as of 9 p.m. ET Wednesday night, according to the California health department. Newsom said the virus is spreading in the community in 23 counties across the state. It is the third hardest-hit state in the U.S., behind Washington state which has 1,376 cases as of 6 p.m. EDT Thursday and New York which has at least 5,000 cases.

- Senate GOP releases coronavirus relief plan with up to $1,200 in cash payments to individuals

Senate Republicans released their proposal for a third coronavirus relief package as Washington moves swiftly to try to head off economic disaster.

The 247-page legislation introduced by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell includes cash payments of up to $1,200 for individuals and $2,400 for couples. The sum would go up by $500 for every child.

The check totals would start to phase out above $75,000 in adjusted gross income based on 2018 tax returns.

- Trump says he would support government taking stake in certain companies

President Donald Trump on Thursday opened the door to a radical shift in the U.S. government’s relationship to private industry as the coronavirus outbreak upends the nation’s economy, saying he would back the government taking stakes in certain companies.

Asked if he supported the federal government moving to take an equity stake in some companies, Trump said: “I do. I really do.”

Trump, speaking at a news conference at the White House, added: “We will be helping the airline industry. We will be helping the cruise ship industry. We probably will be helping the hotel industry.”

The White House did not immediately respond when asked if purchasing shares in battered companies was really under consideration. The U.S. government rarely invests in public companies except in the case of bailouts to save ailing firms and jobs.

- Canada-U.S. border to close as early as Friday; millions overseas trying to return home

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Thursday that he expected the closure of the U.S.-Canada border to take effect overnight on Friday and was working with domestic carriers to bring home citizens stranded overseas.

Canada, which closed its borders this week to most foreign nationals, agreed with the United States to close their shared border to “non-essential traffic” to curb transmission of the novel coronavirus.

- Boris Johnson says the UK can turn the tide against coronavirus within 12 weeks

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson offered citizens a piece of optimism Thursday, saying in a daily briefing that the country could turn the tide against the coronavirus if the right measures were taken.

“We can turn the tide within the next 12 weeks and I’m absolutely confident that we can send coronavirus packing in this country but only if we take the steps — we all take the steps — that we have outlined,” Johnson told reporters. He later added that he couldn’t say whether the country would be on a downward slope by the end of June.

The prime minister added that restrictive measures may have to go further in London, with evidence suggesting the virus is spreading much further in the capital city. He added that compliance with the government’s advice to stay at home has been patchy.

But he said that there is no prospect of stopping public transport in London. His comments come as Londoners speculate about a potential lockdown of the city, with possible restrictions on entry and exits where around 9 million people live.

- China's $118 billion virus lending push stymied by bureaucratic confusion

China’s efforts to pump 800 billion yuan ($118 billion) into companies via cheap bank loans to counter the economic impact of the virus outbreak have run into a snag: bureaucratic confusion.

- Australia to unveil second stimulus package within days: sources

Australia will within days unveil a second stimulus package designed to shelter its economy from the impact of the coronavirus, two sources familiar with the government’s plan told Reuters on Friday.

- Bolsonaro says coronavirus to peak in Brazil in three-four months

The coronavirus outbreak in Brazil is expected to peak in three or four months, President Jair Bolsonaro said on Thursday, adding that the country should then return to normality in seven to eight months’ time.

Speaking via a broadcast on his Facebook page on the day Brazil’s death toll from the outbreak rose to seven, Bolsonaro said his government is taking actionable measures to fight it, and that his role is not to cause panic in the country.

- Coronavirus forces Brazilian retailers to close stores and boost e-commerce

Brazilian retailers are feeling the coronavirus heat as malls close and people stay at home, but e-commerce may benefit.

Brazil’s association of e-commerce, ABComm, said on Thursday that it is likely to review its 2020 outlook soon, with some websites already seeing a surge in sales since March 12 of up to 180%, mainly in food and pharmaceutical items.

Before the coronavirus outbreak, ABComm expected Brazilian e-commerce sales to grow 18% in 2020 from 2019 to 106 billion reais ($20.8 billion).

- Spain to close all hotels, help nursing homes as coronavirus deaths climb

The Spanish government on Thursday ordered the closure of all the country’s hotels and promised to implement special measures in nursing homes after a surge in the country’s coronavirus cases and deaths.

Officials reported deaths had jumped by more than a third on Thursday to 767, while the number of cases rose by a quarter to 17,149, making Spain the second worst-hit country in Europe after Italy.

Spain, the second most visited country in the world in 2018, has already closed its land borders to all but its nationals and residents.

- British Airways pilots to face 50% pay cut over coronavirus: FT

British Airways (ICAG.L) pilots will face a 50% pay cut to their basic salary for April and May, as the airline seeks to reduce its cost to try survive the coronavirus crisis, the Financial Times reported on.ft.com.

· Fed balance sheet hits record, banks tap loans as crisis measures take hold

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reached a record $4.7 trillion this week and banks grabbed cut rate loans from the central bank as efforts to blunt the economic damage of a global health crisis took hold.

Data released Thursday showed bank borrowing from the Federal Reserve’s “discount window” spiked to more than $28 billion this week, compared to $11 million the week before, after the central bank slashed the cost of loans and encouraged firms to tap the Fed to help funnel credit into the economy.

The discount window is the main tool through which the Fed acts as the economy’s “lender of last resort,” and has often been avoided by banks who feel that using it is a sign of distress.

But as in the 2007 to 2009 crisis the Fed has been trying to break that stigma and encourage banks to use the discount window freely, on Sunday slashing the interest rate to 0.25% and allowing banks to borrow for up to 90 days at a time.

· Fed's Daly says 'our tools are starting to work' in markets

The U.S. central bank’s moves this week to slash borrowing costs, shore up plumbing in key pockets of the financial markets and remove barriers to tapping the Fed’s emergency loan window are starting to have an effect, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Thursday.

“It’s encouraging to see that there’s more borrowing at the discount window; it’s encouraging to see that some of the volatility in markets has settled down,” Daly said in a phone interview with Reuters.

“Our tools are starting to work in the markets that we care about, and I think that’s really important. We’ll continue to monitor that and see if more needs to be done.”

· As Treasury yields rise, investors see possibility of Fed yield curve control

The prospect of ballooning U.S. Treasury debt issuance, on the back of the government actions to counter the economic pain of the coronavirus, has investors asking whether the Fed will deploy a tool that has not been used in over 70 years - yield curve control.

Yields jumped this week even as stock markets fell as investors rushed to sell assets, including Treasuries, and raise cash. Another negative for bonds would be the jump in new paper that must be sold to finance fiscal stimulus in the scramble to offset the economic hit from business shutdowns as the coronavirus spreads.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR have risen to 1.12% after hitting a record low of 0.318% on March 9. They are still below the 1.91% level from year-end, though yields then reflected more optimism on the economy before the virus spread globally.

· Dollar strengthens, boosted by worries over coronavirus impact

The U.S. dollar rose against a basket of currencies for a third day on Thursday, as worries about the economic fallout from the coronavirus boosted dollar demand despite recent steps by world central banks aimed at alleviating market stress.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six other major currencies, rose about 1.0% to 101.76, its highest since January 2017. The index is up about 3% for the week.

The dollar’s rally has crushed several currencies to multi-year lows. The euro was 1.31% lower at $1.077, its weakest since April 2017, as traders rushed to dump euro positions despite a fresh round of stimulus from the European Central Bank.

The British pound rallied 1.11% after the Bank of England cut interest rates to 0.1% and ramped up its bond-buying program.

· U.S. oil reverses losses, posts largest one-day gain on record

U.S. crude oil prices spiked by 25% on Thursday, the largest single-day gain on record, recouping some losses from three days of selling that drove the benchmark to near 20-year lows.

Analysts saw the rebound as a brief reprieve, anticipating additional weakness as the coronavirus outbreak takes its toll on global demand. U.S. crude and global benchmark Brent have both lost half their value in less than two weeks, most of that since March 6, the day talks between OPEC and allies including Russia broke down.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 settled up $4.85, or 24%, to $25.22 after dropping nearly 25% to an 18-year low in the previous session. It then briefly extended gains in post-close trading to as much as 35%.

Brent crude LCOc1 settled up $3.59, or 14.4%, at $28.47 a barrel, having plunged to $24.52 on Wednesday, its lowest since 2003.

Reference: Worldometers, CNBC, Reuters

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