• MTS Economic News_20200319

    19 Mar 2020 | Economic News

CORONAVIRUS UPDATES:

Total confirmed cases: More than 220,229

Total deaths: At least 8,982

Affecting 167 countries and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship).

US cases: At least 9,464, and deaths: 155

Italy cases: At least 35,713, and deaths: 2,978

Iran cases: At least 17,361, and deaths: 1,135

Thailand cases: At least 272, and deaths: 1


· Beijing recorded 21 new cases of infections from abroad on Wednesday, mostly people travelling from Spain and Britain. The Beijing infections accounted for the bulk of the 34 new imported cases in mainland China.- The total number of confirmed cases in mainland China stands at 80,928, with the overall death toll at 3,245 as of the end of Wednesday, up by eight from the previous day. In Hubei, there were eight new deaths, with Wuhan accounting for six of them.

· Wuhan is expected to see new coronavirus infections dry up by mid-to-late March and the lockdown of the central Chinese city, the epicenter of the outbreak, may be lifted once there are no new cases for 14 days, the state-backed China Daily reported.

However, strict disease control and prevention measures will still be needed to prevent a possible rebound, China Daily reported on Thursday, citing epidemiologist Li Lanjuan.

· Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Thursday all non-citizens and non-residents would be banned from entering the country from 9 pm (1000 GMT) Friday.

“The overwhelming proportion of cases in Australia have been imported.,” Morrison told a televised briefing in Canberra.

Australia has recorded around 600 coronavirus infections and six deaths, a relatively small number compared to other countries, but officials are growing increasingly concerned about the prospect of a rapid spike in cases.

· Chilean President Sebastian Pinera on Wednesday declared a 90-day state of catastrophe as cases of the new coronavirus mounted in the nation, giving the government extraordinary powers to restrict freedom of movement and assure food supply and basic services.

· Lufthansa said that the airline industry may not survive without state aid if the coronavirus pandemic lasts for a long time, as it throws everything at bringing home travelers and keeping industrial supply chains open.

· The dollar resumed its relentless climb against major currencies on Thursday as wild financial market volatility and worries over tightening liquidity triggered by the coronavirus pandemic sparked an investor flight into cash.

Sterling teetered near the lowest since at least 1985 against the greenback. The Australian dollar skidded to a 17-year low, while the New Zealand dollar crashed to an 11-year low as investors dumped riskier assets.

The euro briefly rose against the dollar and the pound after the European Central Bank announced a 750 billion euro ($817 billion) asset-purchase program in response to the coronavirus outbreak, but even this effort was overwhelmed by a stampede into the dollar.

Investors are selling what they can to keep their money in dollars due to the unprecedented amount of uncertainty caused by the epidemic, which threatens to paralyze large swathes of the global economy.

“This is similar to what happened during the global financial crisis in that investors are even selling what are normally considered safe-haven assets,” said Junichi Ishikawa, senior foreign exchange strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.

· The dollar rose 0.8% against the pound GBP=D3 to $1.1528, approaching the strongest since at least 1985, as the rush into dollars left no currency unscathed.

The greenback jumped 3% to an 11-year high versus the New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 and rose more than 3% against the Australian dollar AUD=D3 to a 17-year high.

Against the yen JPY=EBS, the greenback rose 0.65% to 108.76.

The euro EUR=EBS initially rose after the ECB announced a new asset purchase program, but the common currency erased gains to trade little changed at $1.0924.


· EUR/USD Forecast: Fresh year lows at sight




Fretting investors blindly bought the greenback this Wednesday, with major currencies plummeting to multi-year and even multi-decade lows against their American rival. The EUR/USD pair attempted to regain the 1.1000 figure but finally collapsed to 1.0807, approaching this year low at 1.0777.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the mentioned low and trades in the 1.0830 region ahead of the close, retaining its bearish technical stance. In the 4-hour chart, the pair has met resistance around a flat 200 SMA, now developing below all of its moving averages, and with the 20 SMA accelerating its slump, reflecting sellers’ strength. Technical indicators pared their declines, hovering now in oversold levels and far from indicating the slump is over.

Support levels: 1.0805 1.0770 1.0735

Resistance levels: 1.0860 1.0900 1.0940

· U.S. Fed moves to ensure liquidity in money market mutual funds

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday night rolled out its third emergency credit program in two days, announcing it would make loans to banks that offer as collateral assets purchased from money market mutual funds.

The new facility through the Boston Federal Reserve bank will offer “support for the flow of credit to households and businesses” by ensuring the $3.8 trillion money market mutual fund industry can sell its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and other high quality assets at full value if investors ask to withdraw their cash.

· ECB to print 1 trillion euro this year to stem coronavirus rout

The European Central Bank launched new bond purchases worth 750 billion euros at an emergency meeting late on Wednesday in a bid to stop a pandemic-induced financial rout shredding the euro zone’s economy and renew concerns about the bloc’s viability.

With much of Europe in lockdown amid the coronavirus outbreak, economic activity has come to a near standstill and markets have been in a tailspin, foreshadowing a deep recession on par with the 2008 global financial crisis and raising questions about the euro zone’s cohesion at times of stress.

Under pressure to act to bring down borrowing costs for indebted, virus-stricken countries such as Italy, the ECB launched a new, dedicated bond-purchase scheme, bringing its planned purchases for this year to 1.1 trillion euro with the newly agreed buys alone worth 6% of the euro area’s GDP.

· Japan may hand out cash to households in stimulus package to battle virus fallout

Japan will look into offering cash payouts to households as part of a stimulus package that could be worth more than $276 billion to combat the widening fallout from the coronavirus outbreak, joining efforts across the world to roll out huge fiscal support to fend of recession risks.

Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said the stimulus package, likely to be compiled by the government in April, will be bold enough to fend off a crisis he described as potentially more serious than when the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 jolted financial markets.

· Japanese big manufacturers’ confidence in the three months to March likely worsened to its lowest in over seven years, a Reuters poll found as the global spread of coronavirus batters financial markets and raises the risk of a sharp recession.

The Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan business sentiment survey is forecast to show the headline index for big manufacturers’ confidence fell to minus 10 in March from zero three months earlier, the poll of 15 economists showed.

· The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announces a second unscheduled Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) purchase on Thursday, offering to buy JPY 300 billion worth of JGBs.

· South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Thursday pledged 50 trillion won ($39 billion) in emergency financing for small businesses and other stimulus measures to prop up the country’s coronavirus-hit economy.

The package is the latest in a string of steps Seoul has taken in recent days to curb pressure on Asia’s fourth-largest economy, including an interest rate cut, an extra 11.7 trillion won ($9.12 billion) budget and more dollar supplies.

· RBA cuts Official Cash Rate by 25 bps to 0.25%, AUD/USD bounces


· Australia’s central bank and government announced support packages on Thursday that will pump around A$100 billion ($56 billion) into the economy, as they seek to cushion the blow from the global coronavirus epidemic.

· Oil prices rose on Thursday, bucking panic selling in other markets, as investors tried to assess the impact of massive central bank stimulus in putting a floor under plummeting fuel demand from the coronavirus pandemic.

Brent crude LCOc1 was up $1.06 cents, or 4.3% at $25.94 a barrel by 0730 GMT, having earlier surged as high as $27.19. The global benchmark slumped 13% on Wednesday in a third day of relentless selling.

U.S. oil CLc1 gained $2.11, or 10.4%, to $22.48 after rising nearly 20% earlier. The U.S. benchmark dropped nearly 25% in the previous session.


· WTI Price Analysis: Recovery rally falters with rejection at $24.00





WTI is again feeling the pull of gravity, having failed to take out the psychological hurdle at $24.00 in early Asia.

A barrel of black gold is currently trading at $22.64 Prices are down 1.26% on the day and a staggering 50% on a month-to-date basis.

The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) continues to report oversold conditions with a below-30 print, but so far, a notable corrective bounce has remained elusive, which isn't surprising as investors are worried the ongoing price war between Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC leader Russia will leave the market in an oversupplied state.

The demand side is increasingly looking weak with the coronavirus outbreak threatening to push the global economy into a recession for a prolonged period of time.

The oversold reading on the RSI would gain credence if and when signs of bear fatigue emerge on the price chart in the form of a bullish engulfing candle, Doji candle, etc.

Also, during a strong bearish trend, the RSI can stay oversold longer than bargain hunters can stay solvent.



Reference: Reuters, CNBC, FXStreet, Worldometers


MTS Gold Co., Ltd.
40,42,44, Sapsin Road, Wang Burapha Phirom Sub-district, Pranakorn District, Bangkok, 10200
Tel. 0 2770 7777 Fax. 0 2623 9366 E-mail: support@mtsgoldgroup.com