• MTS Economic News 20200319

    19 Mar 2020 | Economic News


· CORONAVIRUS UPDATES:

- Total confirmed cases: More than 218,768

- Total deaths: At least 8,944

- The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 173 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan).

- US cases: At least 9,269 (+2,858), and deaths: 151 (+42)

- Italy cases: At least 35,713 (+4,207), and deaths: 2,978 (+475)

- Iran cases: At least 17,361 (+1,192), and deaths: 1,135 (+147)

- Thailand cases: At least 212 (+35), and deaths: 1


- China’s first coronavirus vaccine approved for clinical trials

China has greenlit the start of clinical trials on a coronavirus vaccine — developed by researchers led by a biowarfare expert from ground zero of the pandemic.

The National Medical Products Administration on Tuesday approved the tests for the country’s first COVID-19 vaccine, which was created by the Academy of Military Medical Sciences in Wuhan.

- Coronavirus vaccine: first volunteers receive trial dose in US

A group of volunteers in the United States have become the first to receive doses of a potential vaccine for the COVID-19 virus. Jennifer Haller, Neal Browning, and Rebecca Sirull received the first doses on Monday at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle.

The volunteers – who are all healthy and young and therefore at lower risk of serious complications – will be given two injections 28 days apart to test the vaccine’s safety.

UK scientists are among others around the world working on a vaccine aimed at preventing outbreaks similar to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Researchers from the University of Plymouth have made progress in developing vaccines designed to prevent infections jumping from animals to humans.

A vaccine to stop COVID-19 is not expected to be available for another 12 to 18 months, with a recent Imperial College London report warning that drastic tactics to suppress the disease may need to remain in place until one is found.


- Senate passes coronavirus relief plan to expand paid leave, sends it to Trump

The Senate passed a bill Wednesday to expand paid leave and unemployment benefits in response to the coronavirus pandemic, part of a staggering response expected in the coming weeks to avoid economic calamity.

The chamber approved the bipartisan plan in a 90-8 vote. Two senators — Republicans Cory Gardner of Colorado and Rick Scott of Florida — did not vote while in self-quarantine after exposure to people who tested positive for the coronavirus disease known as COVID-19.

Some GOP lawmakers opposed the bill, arguing it could harm small businesses.

- U.S. restaurants seek $455 billion of federal aid due to coronavirus hit

U.S. restaurants on Wednesday asked the White House and congressional leaders for at least $455 billion in aid to help them weather the coronavirus crisis, saying the industry could shed nearly half of its 15.6 million jobs and a quarter of annual sales.

- NYSE to shift fully to e-trading from Monday after two coronavirus cases

The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) will temporarily close its trading floors and move fully to electronic trading from Monday, its owner Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE.N) said after an employee and a trader were tested positive for the coronavirus.

They were last in the exchange building on March 13, the company said on Wednesday.

The facilities to be closed include the equities and American options trading floors in New York and Arca options trading floor in San Francisco.

Trading and regulatory oversight of all NYSE-listed securities will continue without interruption, the company said.

- Britain ordered schools to shut down as the coronavirus crisis worsened on Wednesday, with panic buying forcing supermarkets to ration food and the pound plunging to its lowest levels in more than three decades.

Boris Johnson’s government has faced mounting criticism that it was acting too slowly compared with other European nations such as Italy, Spain and France. Meanwhile, stimulus efforts by policymakers have been overshadowed by market fears about the economic impact of the pandemic.

The pound plunged to its lowest level since March 1985, barring levels seen during a freak “flash crash” in October 2016. British stock markets fell for the eighth day in 10 as more companies warned of a severe hit to earnings.

- Coronavirus poses new threat to Egypt's economy

The coronavirus outbreak is posing an increasing threat to Egypt’s economy, with pressure on tourism, trade and gas exports coming on top of a longstanding failure to drum up private investment.

Analysts have hailed Egypt for reforms tied to a $12 billion loan program with the International Monetary Fund agreed in 2016, which included devaluing the currency by about half, cutting energy subsidies and introducing a value-added tax.

- Brazil sliding into deep, coronavirus-linked recession in 2020: Goldman, JPMorgan

Economists at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan said on Wednesday they expected Brazil’s economy to tip into recession this year as the global coronavirus pandemic pummels demand, investment and trade.

Goldman Sachs slashed its 2020 growth forecast to -0.9% from 1.5% only two weeks ago, while JP Morgan went further to predict that Latin America’s largest economy will shrink by 1.0%.

These are among the most gloomy outlooks for Brazil among the world’s big banks, most of which had estimated growth of between 2.0 and 2.5% at the start of the year. The reversals were prompted by the scale of the coronavirus shock.

“Global and domestic dynamics take a turn for the worse. Recession seems unavoidable,” said JP Morgan economists in a note on Wednesday.

- Coronavirus-linked recession to hit Brazil, Mexico, Latin America this year: Goldman Sachs

Economists at Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday they expect the Latin American economy, including its two biggest components Brazil and Mexico, to tip into recession this year, citing the economic, trade and financial damage from coronavirus.

They slashed their Brazil growth forecast to -0.9% from +1.5% only two weeks ago, and cut their Mexico outlook to -1.6% from +0.6%. They expect the Latin American economy as a whole to shrink 1.2% this year, compared with their previous forecast of 1.1% growth.

- JP Morgan economist says U.S. GDP could drop 14% in second-quarter

The U.S. economy could shrink 14% next quarter, a JP Morgan economist said on Wednesday, one of the most dire calls yet on the potential hit to the United States from the coronavirus epidemic.

A drop of that size would be steeper than in the fourth quarter of 2008 - the worst of the Great Recession - when the economy shrank 8.4%.

That is assuming the Federal Reserve will continue to find “creative” ways to support the economy and that the Trump administration and Congress deliver $1 trillion in fiscal support, according to the bank’s U.S. chief economist, Michael Feroli.

- JPMorgan Chase to close 1,000 Chase branches on coronavirus concerns

JPMorgan Chase and Co (JPM.N) will temporarily shut about 1,000 bank branches, roughly 20%, to protect employees and reduce the spread of the coronavirus, according to a memo the bank sent to employees Wednesday.

Beginning Thursday, the bank’s remaining roughly 4,000 branches will be open as usual but operating on reduced hours, as JPMorgan Chase becomes the first national lender to temporarily close operations as a precaution against the escalating health crisis.


- Canada unveils major aid package to battle coronavirus outbreak, ready to do more

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Wednesday his government would provide C$27 billion ($18.6 billion) in direct support to families and businesses struggling because of the coronavirus outbreak, and stood ready to do more.

- Trump, Canada's Trudeau agree on importance of maintaining trade: White House

U.S. President Donald Trump spoke with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Wednesday and the two leaders agreed it was important to keep trade flowing despite travel restrictions put in place to combat the coronavirus, the White House said.

“The two leaders discussed the coronavirus pandemic and the close cooperation on efforts to combat the virus, including the agreement to reduce movement across the United States-Canada border to essential travel only,” the White House said in a statement.

“President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau agreed it was important to preserve supply chains and trade, regardless of travel restrictions,” it said.

- Russia deploying coronavirus disinformation to sow panic in West, EU document says

Russian media have deployed a “significant disinformation campaign” against the West to worsen the impact of the coronavirus, generate panic and sow distrust, according to a European Union document seen by Reuters.

The Kremlin denied the allegations on Wednesday, saying they were unfounded and lacked common sense.


· ECB to gobble up 750 billion euros of debt in emergency move to combat virus hit

The European Central Bank launched a 750 billion euro ($820 billion) emergency bond purchase scheme after an unscheduled meeting on Wednesday, attempting to stem a spiraling economic and financial crisis.

With much of Europe in lockdown amid the coronavirus outbreak, economic activity has come to a near standstill and markets have been in a tailspin, foreshadowing a deep recession on par with the downturn seen in the 2008 global financial crisis.

The bond purchases will continue until the “crisis phase” of the epidemic is over and non-financial commercial paper will also be included for the first time among eligible assets, the ECB said.

Although the ECB’s purchases will be done according to each country’s shareholder in the bank, the so-called capital key, the ECB said it would be flexible and may deviate from this rule, a hint that it will not tolerate a surge in yield spreads between euro zone members.

· Euro gains after ECB announces asset purchase program

The euro rose on Thursday against the dollar and the pound after the European Central Bank announced a 750 billion euro asset-purchase program in response to the coronavirus outbreak.

The ECB said the new program, which targets public- and private-sector assets, will be conducted until the end of 2020.

The ECB’s announcement is the latest in a series of steps by major central banks this week to offset the impact the coronavirus outbreak is having on the global economy and financial markets.

The euro EUR=EBS rose 0.26% to $1.0947 early in Asia on Thursday. Against the pound, the euro rose 0.6% to 94.30 pence.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was last at 101.160 after rising from levels below 100 yesterday.

The Japanese yen traded at 108.39 per dollar after seeing levels below 106 earlier in the week. The Australian dollar changed hands at $0.5798 after declining from levels above $0.6 earlier in the week.


The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 1.21% Wednesday after trading around 0.77% midday Tuesday before details of the potential stimulus emerged. It began the week at around 0.65%. It wasn’t the outright rate level that caused uneasiness among traders, but the rapid nature of the move overnight.


· Britain and EU exchange Brexit agreement drafts

Britain and the European Union have exchanged draft legal texts containing their proposals for how relations between the two sides should work after the end of a Brexit transition period on Dec. 31, a British government spokesman said on Wednesday.

“Teams will now analyze each other’s texts and we expect further conversations between the teams next week.”

· U.S. oil plunges to 18-year low as lockdowns trigger market meltdown

Oil prices plunged on Wednesday, with U.S. crude futures hitting an 18-year low, as governments worldwide accelerated lockdowns to counter the coronavirus pandemic.

U.S. crude CLc1 fell $6.58, or 24.4%, to settle at $20.37 a barrel. U.S. crude futures have lost 56% over last 10 days.

Brent crude LCOc1 settled down $3.85, or 13.4%, at $24.88 a barrel after dropping as low as $24.52, its weakest since 2003.

Oil futures have lost more than half their value in the past 10 days as schools have closed, businesses have shuttered and governments worldwide have urged residents to limit gatherings. The decline in the U.S. market in the last 10 days is the largest ever for the contract since it was introduced in 1983.

Global oil demand by the end of March could fall as much as 8 million to 9 million barrels per day (bpd), Goldman Sachs said.

Goldman forecast a fall in Brent prices to as low as $20 in the second quarter. Rystad Energy projects a year-on-year decline in demand of 2.8 million bpd, or 2.8%, this year.

Reference: CNBC, Reuters, New York Post, Sciencefocus

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