• MTS Economic News 20200317

    17 Mar 2020 | Economic News


 

· CORONAVIRUS UPDATES:

- Total confirmed cases: More than 182,438

- Total deaths: At least 7,157

- The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 162 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan).

- US cases: At least 4,663 (+983), and deaths: 86 (+18)

- Italy cases: At least 27,980 (+3,233), and deaths: 2,158 (+349)

- Iran cases: At least 14,991 (+1,053), and deaths: 853 (+129)

- Thailand cases: At least 147 (+33), and deaths: 1


- Malaysia closes borders, schools and businesses

Malaysia’s Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin said late Monday that the country will close its borders to travelers, shut schools and most businesses from Wednesday until March 31.

The announcement came after Malaysia reported an additional 125 coronavirus cases to bring its total to 553, the highest number in Southeast Asia. Of those, 42 have recovered. Malaysia hasn’t reported any deaths.

In a televised speech, Muhyiddin announced the closure of all schools and universities, as well as ordering most public and private enterprises to shut — except supermarkets, grocery stores and those providing “essential services” such as airports and defense.

Foreigners will not be allowed into the country and Malaysian residents will not be allowed to leave, said the prime minister.

- Spain has imposed a 15-day nationwide lockdown, banning its 46 million citizens from all-non essential movement.

- Supply impact of the coronavirus outbreak is waning, but demand shock will linger, economist says

China’s industrial production is likely to improve in March over a slump in January and February due to the coronavirus outbreak, but consumer demand will take longer to recover both in the country and globally, an economist said Monday.

“We will see some recovery, but this recovery, I think, is being undermined by the global spread as well,” said Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard.

According to the latest figures from the World Health Organization, there have been at least 153,648 cases of coronavirus globally, with at least 5,746 deaths from COVID-19.

- Coronavirus wreaks havoc on retail supply chains globally, even as China’s factories come back online

At first, U.S. retailers were most concerned about manufacturing facilities being disrupted by COVID-19 in China, where the virus originated. While some manufacturing operations are getting back up and running, much of the rest of the world is in distress.

The disruption is already starting to impact the shipment of goods to retailers for the back-to-school season, analysts say. And if the situation persists, it could end up hitting the holiday shopping season, when many retailers make the bulk of their profits.

“In 25 years, I have never seen anything like this,” parcel managing and logistics platform ShipMatrix President Satish Jindel said. “There is a psychological element, which is very hard to predict. ... This is an unprecedented situation.”

- Top concern for CFOs is coronavirus leading to global recession

The potential for COVID-19 to lead to a global economic downturn is the top concern for finance leaders in the U.S. and Mexico, according to a new survey of chief financial officers by PwC. Of those surveyed, 54% of respondents say the outbreak has the potential for “significant” impact to business operations, however 90% say their business would return to normal in less than 3 months if the COVID-19 outbreak were to end immediately. The survey included 50 financial leaders, 80% are whom are from Fortune 1000 companies.

- Trump issues ‘Coronavirus Guidelines’ for next 15 days to slow pandemic

President Donald Trump on Monday announced a strict set of guidelines for Americans to follow for the next 15 days to try to “slow the spread” of the growing coronavirus pandemic. The recommendations call on people to sharply limit their normal behaviors when it comes to eating out, shopping and socializing.

Trump laid out the guidelines at a White House press conference on a day that saw the number of reported coronavirus cases in the United States rise above 4,000. At the same time, stock market indices posted record-breaking losses as states and cities took dramatic actions in efforts to reduce the rate of transmission.

- Mnuchin seeks 'big number' for additional coronavirus U.S. stimulus package

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, speaking to reporters on Monday after a meeting with Senate Republicans, said he was seeking a “big number” for an additional stimulus package intended to prop up the economy amid the coronavirus outbreak, but he did not elaborate.

One Senate Republican, Marco Rubio, told reporters that Mnuchin had asked Republicans to move on an additional measure targeting airlines and small businesses this week.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he aimed to win Senate passage of a coronavirus response bill that has already passed in the House of Representatives.

- U.S. poll shows growing worries about coronavirus; drop in confidence in government

Some 60% of Americans are now ‘very’ or ‘somewhat worried’ they or a family member will be exposed to the coronavirus, up from 36% in February, while confidence in the government’s ability to respond has fallen sharply, a new poll showed.

The Gallup poll was conducted on March 2-13, shortly after the first positive case of the fast-spreading virus was reported in the United States, and came as the administration of President Donald Trump accelerated its response to the pandemic.

Sixty-one percent of Americans are ‘very’ or ‘somewhat confident’ in the U.S. government’s ability to respond, a drop of 16% from February, the poll showed.

Trump, after initially downplaying the risks of the outbreak, last week declared a national emergency and on Monday urged Americans to avoid gatherings of more than 10 people and halt most social activities for 15 days to halt the spread of the disease.

- Euro zone pledges 'whatever it takes' to fight coronavirus effects

Euro zone finance ministers pledged on Monday an “unlimited” commitment to fight the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, saying they would do whatever it takes and more to restore confidence and a rapid recovery.

The promise came after a five-hour videoconference as the European Commission forecast the effects of the pandemic would turn the previously expected 1.4% European Union economic growth this year into a 1% recession or worse, as whole sectors of the economy are put out of operation.

- Japan business mood plunges to decade lows on coronavirus woes: Reuters Tankan

Japanese business confidence plunged to decade lows in March as the spreading coronavirus outbreak stoked fears of a global recession and sent stock markets tumbling, the Reuters Tankan survey showed on Tuesday.

The monthly poll suggested that the Bank of Japan’s tankan quarterly survey due April 1 will show a sharp deterioration in business sentiment both at manufacturers and non-manufacturers.

The global spread of the virus has hammered world trade, supply chains and tourism, dealing a heavy blow to Japan’s fragile economy, which is teetering on the edge of a recession.

· Yen jumps as traders seek safety despite Fed’s slashing rates

Japan’s yen surged 2% on Monday with traders seeking cover in safe-haven currencies as fears about the coronavirus trumped central bank efforts to ease the pain, while the dollar stood tall despite the U.S. Federal Reserve slashing rates to zero.

The Fed cut U.S. interest rates on Sunday and said it would expand its balance sheet by at least $700 billion in the coming weeks.

The Bank of Japan said at an emergency meeting it would buy more corporate bonds, commercial debt and establish a new corporate lending scheme. New Zealand’s central bank has also slashed rates in an emergency move.

But equity markets slumped again on Monday as traders fretted about the growing number of coronavirus cases worldwide.

MUFG analysts said policymakers could reduce volatility, but “the ultimate determinant will of course be evidence that COVID-19 is peaking”.

The dollar dropped 2% to as low as 105.70 yen. That was still above last Monday’s 101.18 yen.

The dollar, measured against a basket of currencies, was last up 0.1% at 97.95, off the day’s highs. It had been falling as traders sold because of collapsing Treasury yields, but the U.S. currency has rebounded the past week as panicked investors stocked up on the world’s most liquid currency.

The euro jumped 0.5% to $1.1168 after earlier reaching $1.124. Sterling sank as low as $1.2250, its weakest since October.

MORE STIMULUS

The People’s Bank of China injected 100 billion yuan ($14.28 billion) into financial institutions on Monday.

The move came minutes before data showed China’s retail sales, industrial output, and fixed-asset investment all tumbled in January and February.

“The measures introduced to stop the spread of the virus in China may have led to a sharper slowdown in activity than will be the case elsewhere, but it’s clear that the measures central banks have taken, and whatever they do next, cannot prevent a major economic hit being felt globally,” Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes said.

The offshore yuan rose 0.1% at 7.0206 yuan per dollar.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 75 basis points to a record 0.25%. The Reserve Bank of Australia added A$5.9 billion ($3.63 billion) to the banking system.

The New Zealand and Australian dollars fell 0.3% but were off the day’s lows.

Currencies hit hard by risk aversion, such as the Russian rouble, Mexican peso and Norwegian crown, fell in many cases towards record lows.


· Oil slumps below $30 a barrel as coronavirus spreads, OPEC rancor remains elevated

Oil prices fell below $30 a barrel on Monday after the worldwide coronavirus outbreak worsened over the weekend, exacerbating fears that government lockdowns to contain the spread of the disease would spark a global recession.

Saudi Aramco reiterated plans to boost output to record levels to boost its share of the global market. Top global oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia started a price war after failing to agree on a plan to curb supply as the global economic slowdown destroys oil demand.

The coming flood of supply from Saudi Arabia and other producers could result in the largest surplus of crude in history, said global information provider IHS Markit.

Brent crude LCOc1 settled down $3.80, or 11.2%, at $30.05 a barrel. The international benchmark fell as low as $29.52 a barrel, its lowest since January 2016.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 fell $3.03, or 9.6%, to end at $28.70 a barrel, its lowest since February 2016.

Reference: CNBC, Reuters



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