• MTS Economic News_20200313

    13 Mar 2020 | Economic News

· dollar stood tall on Friday as investors scrambled for the world’s most liquid currency amid deepening panic about the coronavirus, while the euro nursed losses after the European Central Bank disappointed by not cutting rates.

The greenback held gains against most currencies after a blowout in swap spreads showed investors are facing a shortage of dollars as equity markets plunged on fears about the global economic impact of the flu-like virus.

The Federal Reserve moved to provide $1.5 trillion in short-term liquidity and changed the durations of Treasuries it buys, but money markets show investors expect the Fed will have to go even further to restore calm to financial markets.

Investors have so far expressed disappointment with the government response to rising infections in the United States, and traders warn there could be more disruptions in a broad range of financial markets.

The euro EUR=EBS traded at $1.1202, following a 0.72% decline on Thursday in the wake of the ECB decision. For the week, the common currency was on course for a 0.7% decline.

Against the pound GBP=D3, the dollar rose slightly to $1.2541 in Asia on Friday, which followed its biggest one-day gain against sterling since July 2016. The dollar was up 3.8% against sterling this week, its best performance since October 2016.

The dollar rose 0.88% to 105.58 yen JPY=EBS on Friday, on course for a 0.2% weekly advance.

· JP Morgan forecasts a US recession for 2020

JP Morgan has revised its US gross domestic product (GDP) forecast to -2 percent annualized growth in the first quarter of 2020, and -3 percent in the second, as tweeted by CNBC contributor James Pethokoukis.

Essentially, the investment bank sees the US economy falling into a recession this year. An economy is said to be in a recession when the GDP growth rate is negative for two consecutive quarters or more.

CORONAVIRUS UPDATES:

Ø Total confirmed cases: More than 134,918 (+378)

Ø Total deaths: At least 4,990 (+19)

Ø Recovered: 70,395

Ø The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 127 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan).

Ø US cases: At least 1,762 (+65), and deaths: 41 (+0)

Ø Italy cases: At least 15,113, and deaths: 1,016

Ø Iran cases: At least 10,075, and deaths: 429




· Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s wife, Sophie Gregoire, has tested positive for COVID-19.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be in isolation for two weeks after his wife, Sophie, tested positive for coronavirus on Thursday, and the outbreak prompted the province of Ontario to shutter schools to limit the spread.

· The U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued emergency authorization for a coronavirus test made by Swiss diagnostics maker Roche (ROG.S), a move aimed at boosting screening capacity to help contain the growing epidemic.

The tests provide results in 3.5 hours and can produce up to 4,128 results in 24 hours, Roche said on Friday.

· China’s Wuhan city, ground zero of the new coronavirus outbreak, reported five new cases on Friday, the second day in a row the tally has been less than 10, while no locally transmitted infections were reported in the rest of the country.

Wuhan, capital of central Hubei province, registered the five new cases on Thursday, the National Health Commission said, down from eight cases the previous day. The commission routinely reports new cases the day after the data is collected.

Excluding Wuhan, Hubei has reported no new infections for eight consecutive days.

The financial hub of Shanghai reported two new cases, while Beijing saw one, all imported by people traveling to China from affected areas abroad, the health authority said.

· Singapore will deny from Monday entry or transit to visitors who have been in Italy, France, Spain or Germany in the last 14 days, as part of measures to control the fast-spreading coronavirus, the health ministry said on Friday.

· The Indonesian government has prepared a 120 trillion rupiah ($8.1 billion) stimulus package to support Southeast Asia’s biggest economy as the spread of coronavirus disrupts global activities, the country’s finance minister said.

The stimulus, representing 0.8% of gross domestic product, includes exempting workers in manufacturing from income tax and giving manufacturing companies a 30% discount on corporate tax payments, both measures to take effect starting April for six months, Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati told a news conference.

· Australia on Friday urged locals not gather in groups of more than 500 people as Canberra accelerates its efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

Australia has recorded 156 infections and three deaths from the flu-like disease but authorities expect this to increase rapidly in the coming weeks with the arrival of the southern hemisphere winter.

· A diplomat from the Philippine mission to the United Nations tested positive on Thursday for the coronavirus, prompting a lockdown at the consular offices on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan, officials said.

· South Korea reports more recoveries than coronavirus cases for the first time

South Korea reported more recoveries from the coronavirus than new infections on Friday for the first time since its outbreak emerged in January, as a downward trend in daily cases raised hopes that Asia’s biggest epidemic outside China may be slowing.

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) recorded 110 new coronavirus cases on Friday compared with 114 a day earlier, taking the national tally to 7,979. The death toll rose by three to 70.

In contrast, 177 patients were released from hospitals where they had been isolated for treatment, the KCDC said.

This marks the first time that the daily number of recovered people exceeded that of new infections since South Korea’s first patient was confirmed on Jan. 20.

The latest figures are in line with a downward trend in new cases which has raised hopes that the outbreak may be easing in Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

· At an extraordinary meeting on 12 March, Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee voted unanimously to reduce the policy rate by 0.50 percentage point to 1.00 percent.

· The Olympics are the ‘only silver lining’ for Japan’s economy right now, analyst says

Japan’s economy will take a hit if the Olympic Games are canceled due to the coronavirus outbreak, an analyst said on Friday amid swirling speculation over whether the massive sporting event will take place as scheduled this summer in Tokyo.

The Japanese economy has already been hit by a consumption tax hike that crimped spending and the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic is likely to affect Japanese exporters this year, said Waqas Adenwala, Asia analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit.

“The Olympics actually is the only silver lining Japan has right now,” Adenwala told CNBC.

“The Olympics is the only scenario we can expect some incoming of tourist arrivals, some spending there. It wouldn’t have been a big lifesaver, but it would’ve been some sort of support rather than nothing being there,” said Adenwala.

Japan’s top government spokesman Yoshihide Suga emphasized on Friday that the country is on track to hold the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested a possible delay, Reuters reported.

· Australia’s home affairs minister Peter Dutton said he tested positive for coronavirus on Friday.

· Japan’s parliament on Friday approved a bill giving Prime Minister Shinzo Abe emergency powers that will let him close schools, halt large gatherings and requisition medical supplies as Japan tries to slow the coronavirus outbreak.

· New York Federal Reserve injects $1.5 trillion into markets amid coronavirus chaos for stocks

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Thursday took steps to inject more than $1.5 trillion into the markets in a bid to calm investors who are fearful of the economic impact of the coronavirus.

With market chaos swirling, the New York Fed's Open Market Trading Desk revealed plans to flood the short-term funding markets with capital.

"These changes are being made to address highly unusual disruptions in Treasury financing markets associated with the coronavirus outbreak," the Fed said in a statement.

The initial step involves an offer to purchase $500 billion in a so-called "repo operation" beginning today. A repo operation is an effort to keep interest rates in the Fed's preferred range.

· Economists at Deutsche Bank have changed their forecast and are now expecting more rate cuts from the Fed at its next meeting. Meanwhile, the US dollar is showing off its safe-haven status.

Key quotes

“Our Fed call has changed and we now expect 100bps of cuts at the next meeting, bringing the fed funds rate directly to the zero bound.”

· Oil falls a third day, Brent crude set for worst week since 1991

Oil prices fell on Friday for a third day, with Brent crude set for its biggest weekly drop since 1991 and U.S. crude heading for the worst week since 2008 as panic about plunging demand from the coronavirus outbreak grips the market.

Brent crude was down 67 cents, or 2%, at $32.55 a barrel by 0126 GMT after falling more than 7% on Thursday. For the week, Brent is set to fall 28%, the biggest weekly decline since the week of Jan. 18, 1991, when it fell 29% at the outbreak of the first Gulf War.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 66 cents, or 2.1%, at $30.84 after falling more than $1 earlier. The contract fell 4.5% in the previous session. WTI is set to drop 25% this week, the most since the week of Dec. 19, 2008, when it fell 27% at the height of the Global Financial Crisis.

· Oil prices keep tumbling, with no sign of stopping

An epic battle between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Shrinking demand for jet fuel, gasoline and diesel. And now an unprecedented travel ban between the United States and Europe. It's a nightmare scenario for the oil market.

US crude oil plunged another 6% to $31 a barrel on Thursday after President Donald Trump announced the travel restrictions with Europe in a bid to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Crude dropped to as low as $30.02 a barrel. At that level, it was down 27% for the week.

The travel ban is only intensifying fears in the oil patch about demand destruction for energy products.

The big problem for the oil market is that jet fuel demand is cratering. Thousands of flights have been canceled and more will likely be nixed because of restrictions and nervous travelers.

Rystad Energy estimates that the travel ban with Europe will cause the loss of 600,000 barrels per month in jet fuel demand. That's on top of the 700,000 barrels per month that the firm had previously estimated due to earlier coronavirus disruptions.

Beyond the demand implications, the travel ban with Europe is weighing on investor confidence.

"It leads to further loss of confidence in the governments' handling of the fallout and increases uncertainty about the extent of the virus impact on the overall economy," Bjoernar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy, said in an email.


The crash in oil prices has slammed the energy companies large and small. The energy sector of the S&P 500 plunged 10% Thursday alone.


· WTI Price Analysis: Magic Fibonacci golden ratio offers support in oil

WTI has moved lower again as more travel restrictions hit the news one by one. Many nations including the US have imposed travel bans with many cities on lockdown. There is also the matter of the rift between Saudi Arabia and the rest of the OPEC nations.

Looking at the chart now you can see the lows are being hit at the time of writing. The 161.8 golden Fibonacci ratio has provided the market with a decent support zone and for now, it is being respected. On the topside $36.00 per barrel is the consolidation high and psychological resistance. This could be a shorting area if the price moves back up. Obviously $30.00 per barrel is a psychological support level too.


Reference: Reuters, CNBC, FXStreet,CNN,New York Times,USA Today


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