· Coronavirus Updates:
Ø Total confirmed cases: More than 114,285
Ø Total deaths: At least 4,009
Ø The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 113 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan).
Ø US cases: At least 624 (+83), and deaths: 26 (+4)
Ø Italy cases: At least 9,172 (+1,797), and deaths: 463 (+97)
Ø South Korea cases: At least 7,478 (+165), and deaths: 53 (+3)
Ø Iran cases: At least 7,161 (+595), and deaths: 237 (+43)
- Italy sees its largest single-day rise in cases
The death toll from an outbreak of coronavirus in Italy has risen by 97 to 463, the Civil Protection Agency said on Monday, a slower rate of increase than registered the day before.
The total number of cases in Italy, the European country hardest hit by the virus in Europe, rose 24% to 9,172, the largest daily increase in terms of absolute numbers since the contagion first came to light on Feb. 21.
The head of the agency said that, of those originally infected, 724 had fully recovered, compared to 622 the day before. Some 733 people were in intensive care against a previous 650.
- Italy expands its quarantine to the entire country as coronavirus cases and deaths surge
Italy will expand the lockdown of the Lombardy region to the entire country, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said Monday as Italy’s case count surged, making it the country with the most COVID-19 cases outside of China.
People throughout the country of 60 million should not travel other than for work or emergencies, Conte said. He added that all public gatherings will be banned and sporting events suspended. The decision was made to protect the most vulnerable people in the country, he said, and the measures will take effect Tuesday and last until April 3.
Schools and universities all over the country will remain closed until April 3, he said, but public transit will remain operational. All schools in the country were previously closed until March 15. He also said all restaurants and bars across the country will have to close at 6 p.m.
- New Jersey declares state of emergency as cases surge in tri-state area
New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy declared a state of emergency and a public health emergency to free up state funds for districts across the state. The announcement comes as the number of COVID-19 cases in the tri-state area tripled to at least 155, up from 49 confirmed cases on Friday.
- Trump says he’s working on a payroll tax cut to help US workers
President Donald Trump said he will be meeting with Senate and House Republicans on Tuesday to discuss a possible tax relief measure to provide “a timely and effective response to the coronavirus.”
“We are to be meeting with House Republicans, Mitch McConnell, and discussing a possible payroll tax cut or relief, substantial relief, very substantial relief,” Trump said at a press briefing with coronavirus task force members.
“It’s a big number,” he added. “We’re also going to be talking about hourly wage earners getting help so they can be in a position where they’re not going to miss a paycheck.”
- Iraq calls on citizens to avoid sacred cities and sites
Iraq has banned all public gatherings and called on citizens to avoid visiting sacred cities and sites to stop the spread of the coronavirus, an official statement said on Monday.
Authorities also called on Iraqis arriving from Iran, China, South Korea, Italy, Japan, Thailand, Singapore, Kuwait and Bahrain to stay at home for self-quarantine for 14 days, the statement said.
- Biden, Sanders consider changing campaign plans amid coronavirus outbreak
Democratic presidential candidates Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders on Monday said they were consulting with public health experts about coronavirus risks in planning their next campaign moves, as election officials in upcoming primary states urged people to consider voting early.
Neither Sanders, a U.S. Senator from Vermont, nor Biden, the former vice president, has yet called off a major rally because of the outbreak that has sickened more than 110,000 people globally, although public health officials have urged people at risk for contracting the disease to avoid large gatherings.
· Russia, Saudi Arabia squabble over oil strategy, but the real battle is with the US
The clash between Russia and Saudi Arabia over an oil price strategy appears to pit the two nations against each other in a vicious battle for market share, but analysts say they are really at war with the U.S. oil industry.
Intentional or not, the open price war has sucker punched the U.S. oil industry with a massive decline in oil prices since Friday. The downturn could damage the U.S. economy, result in a smaller American energy industry, and knock the U.S. from its position as the world’s largest oil producer, analysts say.
· JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank now see ECB cutting rates this week - BBG
Bloomberg News reports that economists are increasingly counting on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates on Thursday, with Deutsche Bank AG and JPMorgan Chase & Co. joining colleagues at HSBC Holdings Plc and Oxford Economics in predicting reductions.
ECB President Christine Lagarde “will be aware that her first big policy decision will shape perceptions of her approach, and therefore it now makes sense to err on the side of a bigger response, given the deteriorating backdrop,” Greg Fuzesi, an economist at JPMorgan in London, said in a note to clients on Monday.
The ECB holds a scheduled policy meeting in Frankfurt this week, and investors expect a 10 basis point rate cut to the deposit rate, though economists still are divided if the Governing Council will act. Some are also predicting bond purchases will be boosted and a measure to direct liquidity to struggling small firms looks likely.
The virus is hitting exports to China and threatens to disrupt the supply of crucial parts from Chinese companies. Fears of contagion, school closures, event cancellations and travel restrictions on workers are hurting tourism, airlines and leisure companies across Europe — as well as investor and business sentiment.
For the eurozone economy, which had already slowed to its lowest growth rate for seven years at 1.2 per cent in 2019, coronavirus could hardly have come at a worse time.
The economies of France and Italy both shrank in the final quarter of last year, while Germany’s flatlined. Many economists are now predicting the eurozone will suffer a recession — two consecutive quarters of negative growth — in the first half of this year.
The risk for the ECB — which is expected to cut its own economic forecasts on Thursday — is that its response will be seen as inadequate, leaving Ms Lagarde and her fellow governing council members looking increasingly powerless.
· Yen, Swiss franc soar as risk appetite plunges on oil, coronavirus
The safe-haven yen and Swiss franc surged on Monday, as risk appetite plummeted after a 30% crash in oil prices and tumbling stock markets panicked investors and sent currency prices swinging wildly.
Investors were also alarmed after U.S. Treasury yields declined to record lows, with the benchmark 10-year yield falling below 40 basis points and the entire yield curve below 1% for the first time ever.
That further increased nervousness in the market already rattled by weeks of wild moves, as investors struggled to assess the economic damage caused by the coronavirus.
As a result, currency volatility shot up. A gauge of volatility in the euro/dollar market - the world’s most-traded currency pair - shot to its highest since April 2017 as the euro surged more than 1% to its strongest since January 2019.
Dollar-yen one-month implied volatility surged to an 11-year high at more than 18% as the dollar slid to its weakest since 2016.
In hectic trade, the dollar fell as low as 101.20, its lowest in more than three years. It was last down 3.2% at 10.82 yen.
The yen was headed for its largest three-day gain since the 2008 financial crisis. It is up around 9% in a dozen trading days. The euro rallied 1.3% to $1.1425 after earlier touching $1.1492.
The dollar index dropped to its weakest since September 2018, and was last at 95.039, down 0.5% . The dollar also dropped 1% against the Swiss franc to 0.9280.
· Oil plunges 25%, hit by erupting Saudi-Russia oil price war
Crude prices suffered their biggest daily rout since the 1991 Gulf War on Monday as top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia began a price war that threatens to overwhelm global oil markets with supply.
A nearly 25% slump in oil prices triggered panic selling and heavy losses on Wall Street’s main stock indexes as the rapid spread of coronavirus amplified fears of a global recession.
Saudi Arabia and Russia both said they would raise production at the weekend after a three-year pact between them and other major oil producers to limit supply fell apart on Friday.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 fell $10.91, or 24.1%, to settle at $34.36 a barrel. The contract fell by as much as 31% earlier in the day to $31.02, its lowest since Feb. 12, 2016.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 fell $10.15, or 24.6%, to settle at $31.13 a barrel. WTI earlier dropped 33% to $27.34, also the lowest since Feb. 12, 2016.
Monday marked the biggest one-day percentage decline for both benchmarks since Jan. 17, 1991, when oil prices fell a third at the outset of the U.S. Gulf War.
Trading volumes in the front-month for both contracts hit record highs.
Reference: Worldometers, CNBC, Reuters, Financial Times, FX Street
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