• MTS Economic News_20200309

    9 Mar 2020 | Economic News

· Coronavirus Updates:

Ø Total confirmed cases: More than 110,110

Ø Total deaths: At least 3,831

Ø Total Recovered: 62,356

Ø The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 109 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan).

· Wuhan shuts down 11 makeshift hospitals as China cases slow

China reports 40 new confirmed cases and 22 additional deaths as of Mar. 8, bringing the total number of cases in the mainland to 80,735 and the cumulative death toll to 3,119.

Following the discharge of most patients, 11 of the 14 makeshift hospitals in Wuhan that were built for treatment of the new coronavirus have closed, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV said.

· Mainland China, outside Hubei province, reported no new locally transmitted cases for the second straight day, as a senior Communist Party official warned against reducing vigilance against the disease and of the risk of social stability.

“We must stay cautious, not be blindly optimistic and must not have war-weariness...,” said Chen Yixin, secretary general of the Communist Party’s Politics and Law Commission.

“We should not reduce the vigilance against the epidemic and the requirements of prevention and control.”

· Italy locks down millions as its coronavirus deaths jump

Italy ordered a virtual lockdown across much of its wealthy north, including the financial capital Milan, in a drastic new attempt to try to contain a outbreak of coronavirus that saw the number of deaths leap again sharply on Sunday.

The unprecedented restrictions, which aim to limit gatherings and curb movement, will impact some 16 million people and stay in force until April 3. They were signed into law overnight by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.

The new measures say people should not enter or leave Lombardy, Italy’s richest region, as well as 14 provinces in four other regions, including the cities of Venice, Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia and Rimini.

· Saudi Arabia has suspended aircraft and ship services Monday with nine countries amid the novel coronavirus outbreak, according to the Interior Ministry.

The government has temporarily banned citizens and foreigners living in Saudi Arabia from travelling to the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Lebanon, Syria, South Korea, Egypt, Italy and Iraq, the official SPA news agency reported.

Arrivals from these countries and those who have been there in the last 14 days have been temporarily barred from entering the country, while Saudi Arabia has also stopped flights and ships from these countries.

· "The return to economic normality in China has been very slow since the coronavirus outbreak," wrote Louis Kuijs, head of Asia Economics at Oxford Economics, in a research note, pointing to the poor trade data and last week's surveys of activity in the country's manufacturing and services sector.

Oxford Economics now expects China's economic growth to contract 2% in the first quarter compared to the prior quarter, though Kuijs wrote that there should be a "robust recovery" through the rest of the year.

Kuijs wrote that the situation should "turn the corner" soon as people return to work and companies catch up on lost activity.

But others pointed to the spread of the coronavirus overseas as a continued cause for concern.

"China may slowly be returning to work, but manufacturers will now likely be facing an international fall in demand," wrote Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst for Asia Pacific at Oanda.

· Older Americans, especially those with chronic medical concerns, should probably avoid big social gatherings and airline flights, given the rapid spread of coronavirus, a top U.S. health official said on Sunday, as investors braced for another volatile week in financial markets.

· Singapore will allow cruise ship Costa Fortuna to dock in the city-state on Tuesday, authorities said, after it was turned away from ports in Malaysia and Thailand over coronavirus fears.

Italian cruise line Costa Crociere said there were no suspected virus cases among its guests, which includes Italians. Italy has the largest number of cases of the virus outside China with 7,375 infections.

However, the ship, which can carry up to 3,470 guests and 1,027 crew, did make a first stop in Langkawi, Malaysia last week, local media reported. Costa Crociere did not say how many people were onboard the ship.

· The dollar dived against the euro and yen on Monday as a slump in oil prices combined with coronavirus fears to drive U.S. yields to once-unthinkable lows.

In hectic trade, it fell 3% against the yen to 101.58, its lowest in three years. The euro EUR= was last up 1% at $1.1408, while the Australian AUD=D3 and New Zealand NZD=D3 dollars were down close to 2% with the fearful mood.



· The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield broke below 0.5% for the first time ever as coronavirus fears, coupled with an all-out oil price war, sent investors flocking to safer government bonds.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury briefly touched an all-time low of 0.487% in overnight trading Sunday. The yield was last trading at 0.536%. Bond yields move inversely with prices.

The benchmark rate has tumbled 40 basis points in March alone. The 30-year Treasury yield also hit a record low of 0.974%, breaching the 1% threshold for the first time in history.

While the coronavirus poses a new threat to the global economy, the bond market has been flashing various warning signs about the economy for a while now. Last summer, the benchmark 10-year yield dipped below the 2-year rate, inverting a key part of the yield curve. The inversion has been a reliable recession indicator as the phenomenon has preceded every recession over the past 50 years.

· The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield broke below 0.4% for the first time ever as coronavirus fears, coupled with an all-out oil price war, sent investors flocking to safer government bonds.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury briefly touched an all-time low of 0.3469% in overnight trading. Bond yields move inversely with prices.

· Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Monday the central bank would take appropriate action as needed with a close eye on how the coronavirus affects the economy, particularly through volatile market movements.

“Uncertainty over Japan’s economic outlook is heightening. Investor sentiment is deteriorating somewhat, with market moves unstable,” Kuroda told parliament.

· Japan's economy shrinks faster than first estimated on growing virus, recession risks

Japan's economy shrank more than initially estimated in the fourth quarter - by the most since the 2014 sales tax hike - exacerbating economic fears at a time when the impact of the coronavirus outbreak is increasing recession risks.

A spike in the yen and drop in Tokyo stocks - against a backdrop of oil price cuts that are playing havoc with financial markets - add to woes for an economy which is contending with an October sales tax hike to 10% from 8%, as well as slumping tourism and supply chain disruption caused by the health crisis.

The bleak data piles renewed pressure on the government and central bank to deploy stronger fiscal and monetary support.

· Thousands of Houston jobs could be cut if oil fails to recover from Friday plunge

OPEC and its allies meeting in Vienna on Friday failed to reach a deal with Russia to cut production amid a global supply glut worsened by the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

If the price of West Texas Intermediate rests at $40 per barrel for two or more quarters, the Houston area could shed about 14,000 oil and gas jobs, says Bill Gilmer, an economist with the University of Houston. The oil and gas industry employs more than 265,000 people in the region. Job losses in the industry could rise to 19,000 when including layoffs already caused by the price of crude stuck between $50 and $60 for almost all of last year.

“Oil employment moves very slowly in Houston,” Gilmer explained. “For the whole process to work out, it takes four, five or even six quarters.”

· Goldman cuts Brent forecasts to $30 on price war, virus impact

Goldman Sachs cut its second- and third-quarter Brent price forecasts to $30 per barrel, citing the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia and a significant collapse in oil demand due to the coronavirus that has killed more than 3,500 globally.

“While we can’t rule out an OPEC+ deal in coming months, we also believe that this agreement was inherently imbalanced and its production cuts economically unfounded,” the bank said.

Goldman’s base case is now for no such deal, it said.

· Oil crashes by most since 1991 as Saudi Arabia launches price war

Oil prices suffered an historic collapse overnight after Saudi Arabia shocked the market by launching a price war against onetime ally Russia.

US oil prices crashed as much as 34% to a four-year low of $27.34 a barrel as traders brace for Saudi Arabia to flood the market with crude in a bid to recapture market share.

Crude was recently trading down 27% to $30.04 a barrel. Brent crude, the global benchmark, plunged 26% to $33.49 a barrel. Both oil contracts are on track for their worst day since 1991, according to Refinitiv.

The shock to oil also rattled equity markets, which were already in a panic because of the novel coronavirus outbreak. Stocks in Asia plunged during Monday trading hours, while US futures recorded massive declines.

The turmoil comes after the implosion of the oil alliance between OPEC and Russia on Friday.

Russia refused to go along with OPEC's efforts to rescue the coronavirus-battered oil market by cutting production. The failure of the Vienna meeting left the oil industry shell-shocked, sparking a 10% plunge in oil prices Friday. Oil prices were already stuck in a bear market because of the coronavirus outbreak that has caused demand for crude to fall sharply.

But then Saudi Arabia escalated the situation further over the weekend. The kingdom slashed its April official selling prices by $6 to $8, according to analysts, in a bid to retake market share and heap pressure on Russia.

· Losing more than a quarter of their value, oil prices were set for their biggest one-day decline in 29 years on Monday, after Saudi Arabia ignited a price war in a market already reeling from the impact of the coronavirus on global demand.

Saudi Arabia slashed its official selling prices and made plans to ramp up crude output next month after Russia balked at making a further steep output cut proposed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to stabilize oil markets.

Brent crude futures were down $11.81, or 26%, at $33.46 a barrel by 0650 GMT, after earlier dropping to $31.02, their lowest since Feb. 12, 2016. Brent futures are on track for their biggest daily decline since Jan. 17, 1991, when prices dropped at the start of the first Gulf War, as the market had been expecting the war for months.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by $11.48, or 28%, to $29.80 a barrel, after touching $27.34, also the lowest since Feb. 12, 2016. The U.S. benchmark was potentially heading for its biggest decline on record, surpassing a 33% fall in January 1991.


· FX Street : WTI tanks to four-year low as Saudi Arabia launches price war




West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil opened the week on a negative note, falling as low as $30 in early Asia. That level was last seen in August 2016.

Oil price war
Saudi Arabia stunned the world over the weekend by cutting export prices by $6 to $8 per barrel for its Asian customers. The Kingdom also said it will boost production instead of cutting it to arrest the coronavirus-led slide.

The dramatic reversal in Saudi's policy is widely being referred to as retaliation to Russia's refusal to join the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in a large production cut.

The OPEC+ (OPEC and its allies) meeting convened last week was expected to conclude on a positive note with members agreeing to deeper cuts of 1.5 million barrels per day to counter the effects of the novel coronavirus. Moscow, however, rejected output cuts, leaving the future of Moscow-Riyadh oil cooperation in doubt, as noted by The Moscow Times.


Reference: Reuters ,CNBC, CNN, Energy Voice, Worldometers

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