• MTS Economic News 20200302

    2 Mar 2020 | Economic News

CORONAVIRUS UPDATES:


Ø Total confirmed cases: More than 88,591

Ø Total deaths: At least 3,051

Confirmed Cases and Deaths by Country, Territory, or Conveyance

The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 67 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan).

- Europe could see other surprise coronavirus outbreaks like Italy’s, WHO chief warns

The World Health Organization’s director-general cautioned Sunday that other countries within the European Union might see coronavirus outbreaks similar to the rapid spread seen in Italy.

Italy has 1,128 confirmed cases as of Sunday, according to the WHO, which is the largest in Europe and the third largest globally. Infections are now being seen beyond the original epicenter in the north, with cases in Tuscany, Le Marche, Emilia Romagna, Alto Adige, Piedmont, Liguria, Lazio and Sicily, far south of the capital in Rome.

“Europe may have some surprises like Italy. You know, other developed countries in Europe may have surprises,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble during a panel discussion at the King Salman Humanitarian Aid Center’s International Humanitarian Forum in Riyadh.

- Australia, Thailand and U.S. report first virus-related deaths over weekend

Australia, Thailand and the U.S. all reported their first deaths from the coronavirus over the weekend as the outbreak continues to stretch across the globe.

- Coronavirus deaths rise in Italy, government prepares economic support
The death toll from an outbreak of coronavirus in Italy has risen to 34, five more than a day earlier, officials said on Sunday, as the government prepared to boost spending to help the fragile economy.

- New York state has confirmed its first coronavirus test, Goveror Andrew Cuomo said on Twitter Sunday evening, calling on residents to remain calm and not have any “undue anxiety.”

Cuomo said the patient is a woman in her 30s who contracted the virus while traveling abroad in Iran. He said the woman is in quarantine in her home.

- French coronavirus cases rise to 130: public health chief

- Iraq reports six new coronavirus cases, bringing the total number of cases there to 19, the health ministry said.

- UK coronavirus cases jump, PM Johnson says he expects more

Britain announced a jump in coronavirus cases on Sunday, with 13 new infections taking the total to 36, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he expected the number to rise further.

- The United States has 75,000 diagnostic kits for testing coronavirus available at the moment and will expand that number “radically” in coming weeks, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar told ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday.

- Virus disclosure in China was delayed because disease control group lacks authority, top scientist says

China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention has such low status in the country that there was a delay in alerting higher authorities to the new coronavirus, widely-followed epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan said at a press conference Thursday.

“Except for reporting to upper levels of authorities, the CDC has no power to make any decision for the next move,” Zhong said, according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks. He was the first to identify the SARS virus and played a pivotal role in fighting its outbreak in 2003.

Budget cuts to CDC

As other experts have pointed out, China’s disease control and prevention center has suffered from budget cuts and talent losses.

The National Health Commission cut its budget allocation to CDC by 70% over the last five years, from a peak of 1.1 billion yuan ($157.5 million) in 2015 — during an outbreak of the H7N9 avian influenza that year that infected humans — to 284 million yuan last year, according to CNBC’s analysis of publicly available data.

Overall, China cut spending on public health by more than 30% over that time period, while increasing allocation to the broader category of medical, health and family planning by at least 8% each year since 2014.

Zhong also said Thursday that thanks to Chinese authorities’ subsequent swift action, he expects the virus will be under control in the country by the end of April.

- Vaccine trials weeks away, Pence says, but won’t be available this season

Clinical trials for a coronavirus vaccine could be just six weeks away, Vice President Mike Pence said on Fox New Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures.”

“Dr. Fauci made us aware a couple days ago that because of the expedited process that the FDA has approved, we actually are going to be able to go to clinical trials in six weeks on a vaccine for the coronavirus,” said Pence.

The vaccine likely won’t be available for this season, Pence clarified. “But were working very earnestly with multiple providers and multiple researchers to develop a vaccine. We are clearing the red tape out of the way, the FDA is providing great leadership on this front to have a vaccine for the American people by next year.”

- Pence says more than 15,000 coronavirus testing kits are on the way to health professionals

More than 15,000 coronavirus testing kits are in the mail this weekend en route to health professionals, according to Vice President Mike Pence.

There has been a concern that capacity is limited across the country to conduct tests amid a potential epidemic. The latest numbers show only 472 people so far have been tested in the U.S, according to the CDC.

“The FDA has approved a testing regime that state and local officials can be using,” Pence said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.” He added the government is working with another “commercial provider” to send another 50,000 kits out. He did not provide details on the timing of when those kits would be finished.

- Pence says stock market will recover

Vice President Mike Pence is confident the stock market’s weakness last week will recover. “This economy and particularly the stock market that saw some downturns this week, it’ll come back,” Pence said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday.

The stock market experienced its worst week since the financial crisis as investors worried about the coronavirus denting global economic growth.

“The fundamentals of this economy are strong. We just saw new numbers come out in housing, consumer confidence, business optimism, unemployment’s at a 50 year low,” Pence added. Pence said the Trump administration is focused on the health and safety of the American people.

- WHO chief on coronavirus: Global markets ‘should calm down and try to see the reality’

Market panic over the fast-spreading new coronavirus is uncalled for, the World Health Organization’s director-general said Sunday as governments around the world rush to contain its spread.

“Global markets … should calm down and try to see the reality,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble during a panel discussion at the King Salman Humanitarian Aid Center’s International Humanitarian Forum in Riyadh. “We need to continue to be rational. Irrationality doesn’t help. We need to deal with the facts.”

The comments come after global stocks were slammed in their worst week since the 2008 financial crisis. The Dow Jones plunged a whopping 3,500 points across the week, more than 12%, its largest weekly point loss ever and biggest percentage drop in 12 years.

· Virus panic sends yen to seven-week high against dollar

The Japanese yen hit a seven-week high against the U.S. dollar and was on track for its largest daily gain since May 2017 as investors nervous about the spread of the coronavirus in the United States piled into the safe-haven currency.

Hopes that the outbreak can be contained in China have been replaced this week by worries that infections are spreading around the globe. Measures to contain the virus have wreaked havoc on supply chains, the world’s economy and financial markets.

RATE CUTS PRICED IN

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank will act as appropriate to provide support to the U.S. economy.

Expectations the Fed will cut interest rates to cushion the blow are rising in money markets and Powell’s remarks reinforced the sentiment. Fed funds futures <0#FF:> are now fully pricing in a rate cut next month, with the question only being how large it will be.

The European Central Bank historically lags the Fed but it is now seen cutting by another 10 basis points by June.

The yen’s luster shined, with the Japanese currency rising by the most for any week since mid-2016.

On Friday the yen strengthened 1.41% versus the greenback at 108.08 per dollar.

The dollar index fell 0.332%, with the euro up 0.26% to $1.1027. Sterling was last trading at $1.2818, down 0.51% on the day.

The U.S. dollar index was last down 0.093% to 98.349.


· U.S. bank lobby economist predicts global rate cut coming ... this Wednesday

Investors battered by the breathtaking drop in global stock markets on coronavirus fears are ever more convinced the world’s big central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will soon step in to try to quell the storm.

Against that, the top economist for the U.S. bank lobby - a former Fed insider - issued a remarkably specific prediction on Sunday that the rescue is nigh.

In a blog titled "Don't keep your powder dry" here, Bill Nelson, chief economist at the Bank Policy Institute who worked on the Fed's responses to the 2007-2008 financial crisis, predicted:

** A coordinated global interest rate cut by the top central banks, such as the one executed at the height of the crisis in October 2008 by the Fed and five other central banks. They will possibly include in this action the People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetory Authority, the two banks whose economies have so far suffered most from the outbreak.

** It will happen this Wednesday, March 4. Nelson noted that the previous big coordinated actions in December 2007, October 2008 and November 2011 all occurred on a Wednesday.

** It will happen before the U.S. stock market opens, either 7 a.m. or 8 a.m. ET (1200 or 1300 GMT).

** It will be big: half a percentage point at least. The Fed’s current benchmark lending rate is set in a range of 1.50-1.75%, and rate futures markets are pricing in a cut of at least a quarter percentage point at the Fed’s next scheduled meeting March 17-18. “The only way to get a positive market reaction is to deliver more than expected,” he wrote.

** It will include “forward guidance” - a central bank term for some form of pledge regarding future policy action. Nelson said he would not be surprised to see something aimed at preventing a further erosion of inflation, something the Fed and other central banks have been battling for most of the past decade. His suggestion: The Fed pledges not to raise rates or take other policy tightening actions until its preferred measure of inflation is above its formal target of 2% for six months.

· Goldman Sachs sees Fed cutting soon, perhaps before March 17-18 meeting

Goldman Sachs economists on Sunday predicted the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates aggressively and perhaps before its next scheduled meeting in two weeks time, saying the head of the U.S. central bank sent a clear signal with his unscheduled statement on Friday.

As stock markets sank for a seventh straight day, Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday afternoon said the Fed is “closely monitoring” developments and “will use [its] tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.”

Goldman said that “strongly hints at a rate cut at or even before the March 17-18 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.” Goldman expects a cut of a half percentage point by March 18.

· Trump administration officials have rescheduled for March 11 a critical meeting to discuss potential new U.S. restrictions on sales of technology to Huawei and China, people familiar with the matter said.

The cabinet-level meeting had been set for Friday but was postponed. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Defense Secretary Mark Esper, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin are among those expected to attend the meeting, now scheduled for next month, the people said.

· Oil falls nearly 5% for biggest weekly drop since 2008

U.S. oil prices experienced their steepest weekly fall since 2008 as the spread of the coronavirus stokes fears of slowing global demand.

Investors are increasingly worried as the virus has spread beyond its epicenter in China to more than 40 other countries.

West Texas Intermediate crude settled down 4.9%, to $44.76 per barrel. U.S. crude has fallen about 16% for the week, the biggest weekly decline since December 2008.

The most active Brent crude contract for May was down 3.2%, at $50.749 a barrel, a 14-month low. The front-month April contract expires later on Friday.

New infections of the coronavirus reported around the world were now surpassing those in mainland China, where more than 2,700 people have died. A further 57 deaths have been recorded in other countries.

Benchmark Brent crude, which fell about 2% on Thursday, has shed around 13% this week, putting it on track for its steepest weekly decline since January 2016.

But some market participants are expecting the recent sell-offs to be reined in as soon as the demand fears wane.

Reference: CNBC, Reuters, Worldometers




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