Evidence is mounting that US President Donald Trump’s trade disputes with countries and regions including China and the EU are reducing global trade flows and thereby having a harmful impact on economic growth worldwide.
The International Monetary Fund, for one, is in little doubt. “The global economy is in a synchronized slowdown and we are, once again, downgrading growth for 2019 to 3%, its slowest pace since the global financial crisis,” according to the IMF’s Gita Gopinath.
“Growth continues to be weakened by rising trade barriers and increasing geopolitical tensions. We estimate that the US-China trade tensions will cumulatively reduce the level of global GDP by 0.8% by 2020, she added.
The IMF is certainly not alone. European Council President Donald Tusk said at the start of the August summit of the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations that escalating trade tensions between Trump and other world leaders risk throwing the world into recession, bemoaning “senseless disputes” that had ripped countries apart. “This may be the last moment to restore our political community,” he added.
Global Activity Trade Indicators
World Trade Outlook Indicator
Reference: Daily FX
Thai
Eng