• MTS Economic News_20191128

    28 Nov 2019 | Economic News

· The safe-haven yen rose and risk-sensitive currencies fell on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump’s formal endorsement of Hong Kong’s anti-government protesters, seen as potentially derailing recent Sino-U.S. progress on trade.

“The yen is being bought because of the news about Trump signing the Hong Kong bill,” said Yukio Ishizuki, foreign exchange strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.

“Algorithmic trading could push the yen up further, but the dollar’s losses will be limited because we’ve had positive U.S. economic data, which has lifted sentiment.”

The yen JPY=EBS rose 0.12% to 109.42 versus the dollar on Thursday, rebounding from a six-month low reached Wednesday after U.S. economic growth was revised up in the third quarter.

In the offshore market, the yuan CNH=D3 fell 0.18% to 7.0269 per dollar. In the onshore market, the yuan CNY=CFXS was little changed at 7.0280 versus the greenback.

· China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Thursday the U.S. has “sinister intentions” and its “plot” is “doomed to fail,” after President Donald Trump signed two bills supporting Hong Kong protesters into law.

A Hong Kong government spokesman also said the bills will send the “wrong message” to protesters, “providing no help to ease Hong Kong’s situation.”

China warned the United States on Thursday it would take “firm counter measures” in response to U.S. legislation backing anti-government protesters in Hong Kong, and said attempts to interfere in the Chinese-ruled city were doomed to fail.

· Japan’s coastguard on Thursday said that North Korea had launched what appeared to be a missile, adding that it was monitoring where the projectile would land.

North Korea has fired an unidentified projectile, South Korea’s office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said on Thursday.

· Why the trade war won't hurt Black Friday sales

Retailers stocked up in anticipation

Retailers are continuously keeping their eye on the triggers impacting the global economy so they can anticipate consumer demand for their goods and services. The trade war is no exception.

The good news for consumers is that retailers already anticipated the potential price increases from the tariffs. According to the National Retail Federation, a trade association, many retailers pre-bought inventory for their stores last year — far ahead of the next expected tariff increase on December 15. Because of this, consumers will see few, if any, price increases passed onto them this holiday season. In fact, we will not likely see prices increase until spring 2020, assuming the December 15 tariff increase goes into effect.

· China’s annual Economic Work Conference is likely to convene within the next two weeks, meaning a trade deal with the U.S. is “imminent,” according to ICBC Standard Bank Chief China Economist Jinny Yan.

“The key priority for (Chinese President) Xi Jinping and policymakers across China is stability, so anything that overthrows stability is going to be essentially a concern,” Yan told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Wednesday.

“That includes Hong Kong, the U.S.-China situation, and that is why a phase one deal is absolutely crucial.”

However, Yan suggested that the slowdown in China is driven primarily by a slump in domestic consumption, rather than the trade war.

“That has been seen in the previous year or two because we are seeing disposable income growth slower than actual GDP growth, so whilst most people are worried about GDP growth, what we should really be worrying about is actual income growth in China,” she added.

· As investors await further developments in U.S.-China trade deal, an economics expert told CNBC Wednesday that the signing of a phase one trade deal between won’t be a real victory for either side.

Speaking to CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe,” Keyu Jin, associate professor of economics at London School of Economics, described the phase one agreement as a “face deal” that would allow both sides to say they’ve made some progress.

She added that even some of the more difficult issues that had been negotiated in the deal — like those surrounding intellectual property and the opening up of Chinese markets — didn’t mark a huge breakthrough.

According to Jin, however, even if China agrees to make concessions around certain laws or regulations, it may still take a while for tangible change to be delivered.

Some analysts weighing in on the phase one deal have agreed with Jin that the signing of the deal would largely be a political win.

Speaking to CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Friday, Stephen Roach, senior lecturer at Yale University’s Jackson Institute, slammed the deal as “hollow” and “flawed,” adding that it was “politically expedient” and would fail to address the structural issues that sparked the trade conflict.

Lu Yu of Allianz Global Investors also told CNBC recently that the phase one deal would not be a significant breakthrough in the conflict, describing it as simply a “pause” in the trade war, while former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers told CNBC earlier this month the deal would not mark the beginning of “some kind of economic nirvana.”

· World trade contracts as US-China trade war drags on

The United States and China could still reach a "phase one" trade deal. That's the message for investors after top US and Chinese negotiators had a phone call late Monday

Timme Spakman, an economist at ING, points out that this is concerning given that uncertainty on the trade front is "far from over."

"Trade tensions have slammed the brake on world trade growth in 2019," he wrote in a note to clients. "While the trade war has directly affected trade flows between China and the US, the fallout has been widespread."

Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes puts it bluntly: "World trade is still not growing and will remain a drag on global GDP."

· The US-China trade war and Brexit don’t help, but behind sluggish global growth lies political gridlock

Income inequality, an ageing workforce and a focus on creating short-term value for shareholders are some of the reasons for the global growth slowdown

Behind all of these is a deadlocked political process in advanced economies that prevents investment in much-needed infrastructure that could spur growth

· This time two years ago, Bitcoin was zooming higher, eventually peaking above $18,000.

Things are different now. This week, the cryptocurrency sank to its lowest level in six months after China pledged to toughen its stance on cryptocurrency operations in the country — indicating that while Beijing is bullish on blockchain technology, it's still likely to exert control over decentralized crypto coins.


Reference: Reuters, CNBC, FX Street, CNN, South China Morning Post

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