• MTS Economic News_20181017

    17 Oct 2018 | Economic News

• The dollar edged higher on Wednesday as a rally on Wall Street boosted risk appetite, although gains were capped before the release of Fed minutes later in the day.

Against a basket of its rivals, the dollar rose 0.1 percent to 95.15. It remains about 2 percent below a 2018 peak of near 97 hit in mid-August.

Markets will be looking for clues on the dollar’s direction and the path for U.S. interest rates from minutes of the Fed’s September meeting, due for release later on Wednesday.

Interest rate futures are pricing in a 77 percent likelihood that the Fed will raise rates in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Two more increases are likely next year.

On Wednesday, the euro traded lower at $1.15575, down 0.2 percent. On Tuesday, it reached $1.1622 - its highest since Oct. 1 - before giving up its gains.


• The Aussie came under fresh selling pressure and returned to the red zone amid a renewed buying interest seen around the US dollar across the board, having failed once again to take out the 0.7150 resistance in Asia.

• EURUSD short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the decline to 1.1427 low ended cycle degree wave II pullback. The internals of that pullback unfolded as a Flat structure which ended the correction against 8/15/2018 low. Up from 1.1427 low, the pair is expected to resume the next leg higher in cycle degree wave III. The internals of wave III is expected to nest higher as impulse structure for further upside. Up from there, the initial rally to 1.1610high intermediate wave (1) in 5 waves structure.

Where lesser degree Minor wave 1 ended at 1.1515, Minor wave 2 ended at 1.1479 low. A rally to 1.1572 high ended Minor wave 3. A pullback to 1.1540low ended Minor wave 4. Then finally a rally to 1.1610 high ended Minor wave 5 & also completed intermediate wave (1). Currently, the correction against1.1427 low remains in progress as a Flat structure where Minor wave A ended at 1.1534 low. Then a rally to 1.1621 high ended Minor wave B bounce and Minor wave C looking to end 5 waves structure somewhere between 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of Minor A-B at 1.1545-1.1497 area. Afterwards, pair is expected to resume the next leg higher in intermediate wave (3) higher. We don’t like selling it.

• Saudi Arabia has committed to conducting a complete investigation into the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Wednesday before departing the kingdom for Turkey.

Pompeo said he would meet with President Tayyip Erdogan in the Turkish capital Ankara, two weeks after Khashoggi vanished when he visited the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to collect documents he needed for his planned marriage.

• Europe may need to amend its relations with Saudi Arabia, depending on the outcome of an investigation into the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, an ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Wednesday.

Khashoggi, a U.S. resident and a critic of the Saudi crown prince, vanished after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2. Turkish officials say they believe he was killed there and his body removed, which the Saudis strongly deny.

• The U.S. Trade Representative’s office told Congress on Tuesday it intends to open trade talks with the European Union, the United Kingdom and Japan.

Under fast-track rules, the United States cannot start talks with the EU, Japan and the United Kingdom until 90 days after notifying Congress.

“We will continue to expand U.S. trade and investment by negotiating trade agreements with Japan, the EU and the United Kingdom,” U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in a statement.

“We are committed to concluding these negotiations with timely and substantive results for American workers, farmers, ranchers, and businesses.”

• Traders and investors are awaiting the release of minutes from September’s FOMC meeting. The September FOMC meeting resulted in a rate hike of 25basis points, this being the third-rate hike of 2018. The significant question which continues to loom is whether or not the Federal Reserve will initiate one last rate hike in December. Therefore, market participants will glean through the minutes looking for any possible insight as to the likelihood of a fourth rate hike this year.

The current administration has come out with harsh words for recent Fed action. Last week President Trump said that he thinks the Fed is making a mistake. “They are so tight. I think the Fed has gone crazy.”

Today the president ratcheted up his criticism of the current monetary policy when he said that the federal reserve is “my biggest threat.”

In an interview with FOX Business today, the president said that the Fed is raising rates too fast. “I’m not happy with what he’s doing because it’s going too fast. Because - you look at the last inflation numbers, and they’re very low.”

• International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde has postponed her trip to the Middle East, according to an IMF statement on Wednesday.

Lagarde's visit to the region included attending the Future Investment Initiative, also known as "Davos in the Desert," in Saudi Arabia. The conference is scheduled for Oct. 23 to 25.

The investing event in Riyadh has seen mounting cancellations since the disappearance and suspected killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. Turkish officials allege that he was murdered by a team of Saudi operatives, but Riyadh has fiercely denied the claim.

• It would not hurt Europe if Britain was allowed to remain in the European Union customs union and internal market beyond an agreed transitional arrangement, Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn said.

“What can be extended with no major problem is the Jan. 1, 2020 date for the transition period. If a year is added to that it won’t hurt Europe, I hope not Britain as well,” Asselborn told German broadcaster Deutschlandfunk on Wednesday.

• A Brexit deal is not far away and could be reached in the coming weeks, said French finance minister Bruno Le Maire on Wednesday.

• Turkish economic growth is expected to fall short of sharply lowered government forecasts this year and next, with a recession now likely in the coming six months, a Reuters poll showed, underscoring serious damage from a currency crisis.

The lira TRYTOM=D3 has collapsed nearly 40 percent this year, pushing up the price of everything from food to fuel and sending annual inflation to nearly25 percent, its highest in 15 years.

Sparked by concerns about President Tayyip Erdogan’s control over monetary policy, the sell-off has prompted the central bank to hike rates aggressively, although not enough to reverse the lira’s losses. Investors are now worried about slowing output and the potential impact on the banking sector.

• “Investors are bearish on global growth but not bearish enough to signal anything but a short-term bounce in risk assets,” BAML chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett said.

• A claim by the United States to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero is a “political bluff” the head of the state-run National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), Ali Kardor, was quoted as saying by the Tasnim news agency on Wednesday.

U.S. officials have said they aim to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero in an effort to force its leaders to change their behavior in the region. U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports are due to kick in on Nov. 4.

The U.S. administration has been pushing its allies to cut Iranian oil imports and encouraging Saudi Arabia, other OPEC states and Russia to pump more oil to meet any shortfall.
• CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices continue to tread water at trend line support set form mid-August, now at 71.21. A daily close below that opens the door for a retest of former resistance in the 70.05-26 area. Alternatively, a push above 78.22 exposes the 75.00-77.31 resistance region (August 2011 – June 2012 lows) once again. Longer-term positioning hints a major top is forming.

• Oil prices rose for a fourth day on Wednesday after industry data showed a surprise decline in U.S. crude inventories and tension over the disappearance of a prominent Saudi journalist stoked supply worries.

Brent crude LCOc1 was up 15 cents at $81.56 a barrel by 0735 GMT, after gaining $1.15 in the previous three sessions. The global benchmark, which hit a two-week low late last week as equity markets dropped, is trading around $5 below a four-year high of $86.74 reached on Oct. 3.

U.S. light crude oil CLc1 was up 10 cents at $72.02.


Reference: Reuters, CNBC,Kitco,DailyFX


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