• MTS Economic News_20180906

    6 Sep 2018 | Economic News

• The dollar was steady against a currency basket on Thursday as concerns over global trade tensions and recent turmoil in emerging markets supported safe haven demand for the greenback.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 95.04 by 03:25 AM ET (03:25 AM GMT), after ending the previous day down 0.33%.

Investors remained focused on the U.S. - China trade dispute amid fears that an escalation could be imminent.

U.S. President Donald Trump could slap tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of imports from China when a public consultation period ends later Thursday.

The dollar slid lower against the yen, with USD/JPY losing 0.16% to trade at 111.35.%

The euro edged lower against the U.S. currency, with EUR/USD dipping 0.13% to 1.1616.

• [EURUSD] BULLISH SETUP ON INTRADAY CHART

If the pair is able to keep the previous low, we expect a technical rebound with TARGET 1 around 1.1750 on daily chart.

In near term, target reached: From a technical point of view, the pair has reached our TARGET 1 around 1.1620, and with a gain about 70 pips, we have made to recover to our followers, the previous 2 stop losses taken (60+10). Technically speaking, we are monitoring a key level, and if you continue to follow us, maybe later we will post some updates.

• Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, now sees the pair attempting a visit to 1.1745/50 band ahead of 1.1790.

“EUR/USD has stabilised at the 1.1540/20 as expected and should now retest the resistance offered by the 1.1745/50 area and the 1.1790 recent high. A recovery above here will trigger a move to the 1.1853 mid-June high and the 1.1917 55 week ma. We suspect that the recent low at 1.1301 was a significant turn for the market”.

“Initial support lies at 1.1547 20 day ma. The cross will need to drop sub 1.1508 to alleviate immediate upside pressure. Currently near term dips lower are indicated to hold around 1.1560/20”.

• The Chinese yuan will trim only some of its recent losses against the dollar over the coming year, with the People’s Bank of China increasingly likely to intervene to support the currency against a still-rampant dollar, a Reuters poll found.

The yuan CNY=CFXS is expected to gain 1 percent to 6.77 per dollar in a year, according to the poll of over 50 foreign exchange strategists taken Sept 3-5 from around 6.84 late on Wednesday.

• President Donald Trump accused social networks of interfering in the 2016 presidential election and November's midterm elections.

Trump told online conservative publication The Daily Caller he thinks big tech firms "already have" intervened in the midterms, and said Facebook and Google intervened in the 2016 presidential election on behalf of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

"I mean the true interference in the last election was that — if you look at all, virtually all of those companies are super liberal companies in favor of Hillary Clinton," Trump said, according to the outlet.

"Maybe I did a better job because I'm good with the Twitter and I'm good at social media, but the truth is they were all on Hillary Clinton's side, and if you look at what was going on with Facebook and with Google and all of it, they were very much on her side."

• The United States and Canada have made progress in talks to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement, and officials from the two sides will work together into the night to flesh out areas for further discussion, Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said on Wednesday.

• China’s commerce ministry said on Thursday that China will be forced to retaliate if the United States implements new tariff measures.

• The outlook for consumer spending in Asia, a region which accounts for 60 percent of the world's population, remains bright overall, according to a report issued Monday by Daiwa Capital Markets in Hong Kong.

"Consumption will likely be a dominant economic theme in Asia in the next few decades, underlined by population expansion and rising private incomes," wrote the report's lead author, Paul M. Kitney, Daiwa's chief equity strategist for Asia-Pacific research.

"Possible setbacks caused by renewed protectionist sentiment and global liquidity tightening in the near term are unlikely to derail the uptrend in Asian consumption, in our view," the report said.

• Italy would be moving backwards if it returned to a budget deficit of 3 percent of national output, the European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs was quoted on Thursday as saying, after Rome said it wanted to boost spending.

Party leaders in the Italian coalition government on Monday signaled they would seek leeway from the EU to increase next year’s budget deficit, heading onto a collision course with the European Commission and investors who want it cut.

• North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said he wants to denuclearize the Korean peninsula during U.S. President Donald Trump’s first term, as he agreed to hold a third summit with his South Korean counterpart this month in Pyongyang, Seoul officials said on Thursday.

Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in will meet in the North Korean capital on Sept. 18-20, during which they will discuss “practical measures” toward denuclearization, the South’s national security adviser, Chung Eui-yong, told reporters a day after meeting Kim in Pyongyang.

• The United States and India are engaged in “very detailed conversations” over Washington’s request to completely stop India’s oil imports from Iran, a senior U.S. State Department official said on Thursday.

U.S. President Donald Trump this year ordered the reimposition of economic curbs on Iran after withdrawing his country from a 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and six world powers. The United States has since been trying to persuade countries to economically isolate Iran.

The United States and India began talks in New Delhi to deepen political and security ties on Thursday, with officials hoping for an accord on military communications that could lead to increased U.S. arms sales to the South Asian giant.

• India's economy is racing ahead, shrugging off global trade tensions and a sharp fall in its currency.

The country's gross domestic product grew 8.2% in the quarter ended June, according to official data released Friday.

That's a big jump from the 7.7% it delivered in the previous quarter, and widens India's growth gap over other major economies, including regional rival China.

The much larger Chinese economy grew 6.7% in the quarter ended June.

The Indian government cited an expansion in manufacturing and construction as key factors in the sharp spike in growth.

• Japan should spend 10 trillion yen ($90 billion) on fiscal stimulus each year for the next five years to offset a decline in consumption expected after a sales tax hike, an adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Thursday.

The government plans to raise the nationwide sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent in October 2019 to pay for rising healthcare costs.

• Oil prices dipped on Thursday as emerging market turbulence weighed on sentiment, while a deadline neared for a potential new round of U.S. tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese goods.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $68.59 per barrel at 0645 GMT, down 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last settlement.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 fell by 4 cents, to $77.23 a barrel


Reference: Reuters, CNBC, DailyFX

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