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MTS Economic News_20180821

21 Aug 2018 | Economic News
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• The dollar traded lower against a basket of major peers on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was “not thrilled” with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for raising interest rates.

The dollar was also soft as investors pulled out of the safe-haven currency ahead of anticipated talks this week between China and the United States, which some market participants believe might lead to an easing in their escalating trade dispute.

The dollar index against a basket of six other currencies fell 0.37 percent to 95.554 as of 0345 GMT after touching as low as 95.440, its lowest level since Aug. 9.

• On Tuesday, the offshore Chinese yuan was nearly flat against the greenback, edging 0.07 percent higher to 6.8326 per dollar as of 0347 GMT.

• The euro, which had slipped to a 13-month low early last week amid concerns that the Turkish crisis could hurt European bank, gained on Tuesday.

• The single currency rose 0.36 percent to $1.15225 as of 0347 GMT, giving up some gains after trading at $1.1544 during early morning trade.

· The dollar extended a decline against major peers on comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, and most Asian stocks gained after U.S. equities flirted with record highs.

The greenback accelerated a slide after the euro broke through the key $1.15 level amid thin summer liquidity. It had weakened earlier after a report from Reuters that Trump said China and Europe manipulate their currencies as well as separate remarks lamenting the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases. Treasuries gave back some of Monday’s gains ahead of a meeting of central bankers later this week.

Investors remain on tenterhooks as they await the outcome of talks between the world’s biggest economies on trade that have made their way back onto the agenda. Meanwhile, traders will be closely watching this week’s Jackson Hole symposium for clues on monetary policy, and to see whether central bankers can do anything to help bring back stability after the recent bout of emerging market-led volatility.

· Once the U.S. dollar strength is out of the way, the focus will shift back to how flat the U.S. yield curve is, TD’s commodity strategists said in a note published on Monday.

“We are still expecting precious metals to rebound later this year and into 2019,” Bart Melek, Ryan McKay, and Daniel Ghali wrote. “As dollar strength lets up, focus will return to the flatness of the yield curve and speculators will have record amounts of bearish positions to unwind, providing a considerable boost to precious metal prices.”

Also, bearish speculative investors continue to hold record number of short positions, according to the latest trade data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC's disaggregated Commitments of Traders report, for the week ending August 14, showed money managers increased their speculative short bets by 16,162 contracts to 188,127.

· The lira weakened against the dollar in thin holiday trade on Tuesday, after U.S. President Donald Trump ruled out agreeing to any demands from Turkey to gain the release of a detained U.S. pastor.

The lira TRYTOM=D3 stood at 6.16 against the U.S. currency at 0707 GMT, down from a close of 6.0865 on Monday, when Turkish markets entered a holiday to mark the Muslim Eid al-Adha festival which continues for the rest of this week.

· Real estate investment accounts for about two-thirds of Chinese household assets, according to wealth manager Noah Holdings. The property market also plays a significant role in local government revenues, bank loans and corporate investment. As a result, a sharp slowdown in the real estate market's growth and drop in prices would have a negative affect on overall economic growth.

However, it's unclear whether a downturn in China's property market would necessarily impact overall growth on the same scale. The public still expects property prices to increase because the government has constantly switched between tightening and easing policies, often to prevent a drop in growth, CEIBS' Sheng said in the report.

Analysts also generally predict authorities will counter tightening measures with stimulus in other parts of the economy such as infrastructure. In the meantime, China's export-reliant economy also faces pressure from U.S. tariffs and rising trade tensions.

· U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday ruled out agreeing to any demands from Turkey to gain the release of a detained American pastor and said he was not concerned that his tough stance could end up hurting European and emerging market economies.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he was worried that any statements under oath he provides to Special Counsel Robert Mueller could be used to bring perjury charges against him as part of the probe into Russia’s electoral interference.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he would “most likely” meet again with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, while defending his efforts to convince Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons.

· Taiwan vowed on Tuesday to fight China’s “increasingly out of control” behavior after Taipei lost another ally to Beijing when El Salvador became the third country to switch allegiances to China this year.

Taiwan now has formal relations with only 17 countries worldwide, many of them small, less developed nations in Central America and the Pacific, including Belize and Nauru.

· China’s Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that it hopes a good outcome can be reached during trade talks this week with the United States.

Ministry spokesman Lu Kang made the remark at a regular news briefing, after U.S. President Donald Trump said he does not expect much progress from the talks to be held in Washington.

· Oil prices held firm on Tuesday, with U.S. fuel markets seen to be tightening, although the release of crude from the American strategic reserve somewhat offset an expected supply cut due to upcoming sanctions against Iran.

Front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were up 30 cents, or 0.45 percent, at 0651 GMT, at $66.73 per barrel. The contract expires on Tuesday.

International Brent crude oil futures were down 9 cents, at $72.12 a barrel.

Reference: Kitco,Bloomberg,Reuters

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MTS Economic News_20180821