• MTS Economic News_20180815

    15 Aug 2018 | Economic News

·       The dollar rose on Wednesday to its highest levels in over a year as a crisis in the Turkish lira that has spread to emerging markets fed demand for the greenback as a safe-haven asset.

Signs the U.S. economy remains robust ahead of an expected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next month have seen the dollar dominate other currencies in recent weeks.

Against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday, the dollar rose to 96.862, its highest level since late June 2017.

On Wednesday, however, the lira recovered some ground to trade briefly at 5.7503 to the U.S. dollar, firming from a close of 6.3577 a day earlier.

The single currency drifted down toward $1.13 for the first time since July 2017 and sterling dipped below $1.27 for the first time since June last year.

Against the yen, the dollar rose about 0.1 percent to about 111.27 yen.

·       Retail sales in 2018 are now forecast to climb higher than what had been expected thanks to U.S. tax reform and other upbeat economic indicators, according to an industry trade organization.

Spending at retailers — excluding automobiles, gasoline stations and restaurants — is predicted to climb at least 4.5 percent, the National Retail Federation said Monday, giving an updated outlook for the remainder of the year. That's compared with a prior forecast range of 3.8 to 4.4 percent.

"Higher wages, gains in disposable income, a strong job market and record-high household net worth have all set the stage for very robust growth in the nation's consumer-driven economy," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement. "We knew this would be a good year, but it's turning out to be even better than expected."

·       China’s state planner pledged on Wednesday to keep debt levels under control even as Beijing rolls out fresh stimulus to support the stumbling economy as a trade war with the U.S. deepens.

·       With Sino-American trade tensions escalating, China's cybersecurity standards could be used as an "invisible tool" of retaliation against Washington's tariffs, according to one expert.

Those so-called standards are government-issued guidelines about things like firewalls and software that are technically voluntary, but are oftentimes treated as mandatory by foreign firms' Chinese business partners. Over the past several years, Beijing has issued close to 300 new national standards, Washington-based think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a report earlier this month.

Those additions are contributing to China becoming an increasingly difficult market for some firms, the report said, explaining that the new standards could potentially hit foreign-owned firms with unforeseen costs and delays for operating in China — or they could even lead to companies shutting down their Chinese businesses.

Now, there's some concern that Beijing would use its standards regime to retaliate against the U.S. as the countries exchange salvos in their trade war.

And, if Asia's largest economy were to weaponize tech guidelines to hit American companies, the cost would be difficult to quantify, but the effects on foreign firms could long outlive current tensions, according to the report.

·       Turkey has raised tariffs on some U.S. products under the principle of reciprocity “in response to the U.S. administration’s deliberate attacks on our economy”, Vice President Fuat Oktay wrote on Twitter on Wednesday.

Last Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he had authorized higher tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from Turkey as tensions mount between the two NATO allies over Ankara’s imprisonment of a pastor and other diplomatic issues.

The United States is warning more economic pressures may be in store for Turkey if it refuses to release a jailed American pastor, a White House official said on Tuesday, in a dispute that has further strained relations between the NATO allies.

·       Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh will attend a meeting of an OPEC/non-OPEC committee that monitors output compliance, known as the JMMC, in Algeria in September, the Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA) reported on Wednesday.

·       Crude oil prices are still trading water near support-turned-resistance marking the uptrend from early February. A daily close above its upper layer at 68.48 exposes the 69.89-70.41 area anew. Alternatively, a break below the August 13 swing low at 65.74 targets the 63.96-64.26 zone.

·       Oil prices dipped on Wednesday, weighed down by a report of increased U.S. crude inventories and as a darkening economic outlook stoked expectations of lower fuel demand.

Front-month Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were at $72.34 per barrel at 0648 GMT, down by 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were down 23 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $66.81 per barrel.


Reference: Reuters, CNBC, Daily FX

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