• MTS Gold Morning News 20180129

    29 Jan 2018 | Gold News
  

• Gold rose on Friday, climbing back towards the previous session's 17-month peak as suggestions that senior U.S. officials may support a weaker dollar knocked the currency lower.

• The dollar slid 0.4 percent against the euro on Friday as comments in favour of a weaker U.S currency by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin - though later somewhat contradicted by U.S. President Donald Trump - led investors to suspect a protracted decline in the greenback may be likely.

Spot gold was 0.3 percent higher at $1,351.46 an ounce at 1245 GMT, up 1.5 percent so far this week. The metal hit its highest since August 2016 on Thursday at $1,366.07.

• Looking ahead, analysts remain optimistic on gold as the two contradictory comments could indicate that the government has no official policy on the U.S. dollar.

“I think ultimately if the U.S. wants a super strong America they want a weak U.S. dollar to drive export growth,” said Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group. “What I think this means is that they are not going to deliberately weaken the U.S. dollar, but they are also not going to promote strong dollar policies either.”

Lawler added that he expects gold prices to continue to benefit from this confusion and uncertainty in currency markets.

• "Once again it's all about the dollar," Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler said. "Gold is now pushing against the highs of mid-2016 and threatening to break out to levels not seen since 2013, but it is looking overstretched on several technical indicators and there will probably be a degree of short-term profit taking."

"However our medium-term outlook remains constructive on gold and we could well see gold at $1,400 this year if the dollar and real rate environment remains favourable."

• Gold could benefit if that scorching run cools, GFMS analysts at Thomson Reuters said, predicting volatility in equities and concerns over global politics could lead to a spike in gold prices above $1,500 an ounce this year.

• With gold hovering around $1,350, most technical analysts are watching to see if the market can break above the July 2016 highs at $1,375. Because of strong bullish sentiment, many analysts say it’s only a matter of time before this level breaks this year.

• “There is a strong wall of resistance between 1365.8 all the way up to 1392.6 and the psychological $1400 mark,” said Bill Baruch, president of Blue Line Futures.

• Chris Beauchamp, market analyst at IG, said that he is watching initial support at $1,343 an ounce and a break of this level could push prices to $1,326 an ounce.

• U.S. gold futures were down 0.9 percent at $1,350.30 an ounce.

• This week will be busy with major economic events including the Federal Reserve’s first monetary policy meeting of the year, which is also Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s last meeting, and employment data from January. However, commodity analysts say that they will continue to monitor gold’s relationship against the U.S. dollar as President Donald Trump’s administration creates volatility in currency markets.

• Currently, 30-Day Fed Fund futures are pricing a less than 6% chance of a rate hike in January. However, markets see a 75% chance of a 25 basis-point hike in March.

• Among other precious metals, silver was up 0.6 percent at $17.40, having touched its highest in more than four months at $17.69 on Thursday. It was this week's best performing precious metal, climbing 2.4 percent from Friday's close.

• Platinum was up 0.5 percent at $1,015.20, while palladium was little changed at $1,096.90. After hitting record highs early this year, the metal was on track for its second weekly loss, dropping nearly 1 percent so far this week.

Reference: Reuters, Kitco

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