• MTS Economic News_20161115

    15 Nov 2016 | Economic News

 

Treasury Rout Sends Yields to 10-Month High as Volatility Surges

The global bond rout intensified Monday, with a gauge of Treasuries volatility surging to the highest since February, on expectations that President-elect Donald Trump will increase government spending to boost economic growth and stoke inflation.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note climbed to 2.26 percent, the highest closing level since Jan. 1. The move marks a quick reversal -- just four months ago, it touched a record-low 1.318 percent, surprising analysts who back in January predicted it would end the year at 2.75 percent.


ภาพในบรรทัด 1


The CBOE/CBOT 10-Year Treasury Note Volatility Index rose for a fourth day to its highest level since February.

Technical indicators such as the relative-strength index are signaling the Treasuries selloff may have gone too far, too fast. The 10-year yield’s RSI rose to about 83 on Monday, the highest since 1990, with a number above 70 signaling yields may be overbought -- or, in other words, that the notes may be oversold.

BlackRock Inc., the world’s biggest money manager, said U.S. bond investors should favor Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities as the gap between yields on 10-year Treasuries and equivalent-maturity TIPS, a measure of inflation expectations, touched 1.97 percentage points, the highest since April 2015.

"We see a post-election reflationary trend and a Fed willing to let inflation run hotter putting pressure on longer-term bonds," Richard Turnill, BlackRock’s London-based global chief investment strategist, wrote in a post on the company’s website Monday. "We prefer TIPS over nominal bonds."

TIPS have returned about 5.8 percent in 2016, versus about 2.3 percent for conventional Treasuries, according to index data compiled by Bloomberg.


Too early to tell impact of Trump policies: Fed's Kaplan

"There are some potential policies that would be positive for GDP; there are some potential policies that might be negative for GDP; and I don’t know which ones, nor does the country," Dallas Fed Bank President Robert Kaplan told reporters Monday in this Republican stronghold, where Trump voters outnumbered Clinton supporters three to one.

Kaplan has repeatedly called for broad economic policies that can take over from monetary policy as a main driver for U.S. growth. But he has also said that trade has boosted U.S. job growth, and immigration is an important way to increase the labor force and economic output.

Kaplan said that the rise in bond yields is too short-lived to have any impact on his view of appropriate monetary policy.

"It doesn’t yet have implications for what I might or might not do – it gives me a sense of what the market is thinking," he said, adding that he's sticking to his current view that the U.S. economy will probably grow about 2 percent next year, and that it is "appropriate" for the Fed to raise interest rates soon.

"I think you'll see us in the near future remove some accommodation," Kaplan said. The Fed next meets in December, and is widely expected to raise rates then.

Fed’s Lacker says rates may rise faster under Trump presidency

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said a possible fiscal stimulus under the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump could cause the Fed to raise interest rates faster than anticipated.

“If a more stimulative fiscal stance would materialize that would bolster the case for raising rates,” he told reporters ahead of a panel discussion at Washington College. “As a general matter, doing monetary policy with a more stimulative fiscal outlook usually warrants higher policy rates.”

The Fed last raised rates in December to a range between 0.25% and 0.5%. Fed officials expect to raise rates by a quarter-percentage point once this year, most likely at their Dec. 13-14 meeting. They have also penciled in two possible rate increases next year.

Officials will release updated economic and interest-rate forecasts following their December meeting. Lacker also said he hoped the new administration would maintain the traditional independence of the Fed.


Oil rebounds from three-month lows on renewed hopes for OPEC cut

Oil prices were largely steady on Monday, rebounding from three-month lows, on a report saying that OPEC members were seeking to resolve their differences on a deal to cut production ahead of a meeting later this month.

OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia and fellow exporters Iran and Iraq have been at odds over how to rein in supply to reduce a glut in global markets. The lack of agreement within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries following a tentative deal in September has put pressure on benchmark prices.

Qatar, Algeria and Venezuela were leading the push to overcome the divide between the group's biggest producers ahead of an output policy meeting on Nov. 30 in Vienna, according to a Bloomberg report. (bloom.bg/2eTLwNI)

Brent crude futures LCOc1 settled at $44.43 per barrel, down 0.72 percent, after falling to as low as $43.57. U.S. crude CLc1 ended the session down 0.2 percent at $43.32, after hitting a low of $42.20. Both benchmarks' session lows were the weakest since Aug. 11.


Reference: Bloomberg, MarketWatch, Reuters



MTS Gold Co., Ltd.
40,42,44, Sapsin Road, Wang Burapha Phirom Sub-district, Pranakorn District, Bangkok, 10200
Tel. 0 2770 7777 Fax. 0 2623 9366 E-mail: support@mtsgoldgroup.com