• MTS Gold Evening News 20210422

    22 Apr 2021 | Gold News



Gold hovers near eight-week high on easing U.S. dollar, yields

 

·         Gold prices rose on Thursday to hover near an eight-week high touched in the last session, as a sagging dollar and weaker U.S. Treasury yields boosted the metal’s appeal, while palladium held close to an all-time high hit in the previous session.

 

·         Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,794.67 per ounce by 0115 GMT, after hitting its highest since Feb. 25 at $1,797.41 on Wednesday.

 

·         U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,795.40 per ounce.

 

·         Palladium gained 0.1% to $2,877.26 an ounce, having surged to an all-time high of $2,891.20 per ounce on Wednesday, boosted by supply concerns for the auto-catalyst metal.

 

·         Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was pinned below 1.6%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

 

·         The dollar index fell 0.1% against its rivals, making gold less expensive for other currency holders.

 

·         A bipartisan U.S. congressional push to counteract China picked up steam on Wednesday as a Senate committee overwhelmingly backed a bill pressing Beijing on human rights and economic competition and other lawmakers introduced a measure seeking billions for technology research.

 

·         The U.S. economy will grow at its fastest annual pace in decades this year and outperform most of its major peers, but another COVID-19 surge was the biggest risk over the next three months, a Reuters poll showed.

 

·         Market participants await a European Central Bank meeting due later today and a U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting next week.

 

·         More than 143.22 million people have been reported to be infected by the novel coronavirus globally and 3,187,963? have died, according to a Reuters tally.

 

 

·         Gold Futures Hit $1798.40 and Closed Up Over $15.00

Gold and silver futures had solid gains today with the most active June Comex 2021 contract gaining almost a full percent after gaining $15.90.


Currently gold futures are fixed at $1794.30 that is a net gain of +0.89%. Although it has not challenged $1800 per ounce that would be the next target we would want to see gold futures close above.



Silver also made a solid upside move today gaining over 3% (+3.10%) a $0.80 gain. Currently silver futures basis the most active May 2021 contract is fixed at $26.64.

 

On a technical basis both gold and silver have broken above former resistance as they have effectively traded and closed above their 50-day moving averages. In the case of silver futures, the current fix of the 50-day moving average is $26.082. Silver’s longer-term moving averages such as the 200-day, and the 100-day have remained in bullish alignment with the short-term 50-day moving, average above the 100-day moving average, which is above the 200-day moving average.

 

In the case of gold futures, the June contract traded above its 50-day moving average on Thursday of last week when market forces resulted in a $28 gain. However, the longer-term moving averages remain in a bearish formation in that the highest moving average is the 200-day. Below the 200-day at $1858.10, is the 100-day at $1802.60.

 

If gold continues its upward trajectory, it should be able to close above $1800 as well as its 100-day MA which as we mentioned is just above $1800 per ounce.

According to many analysts this recent uptick is a flip back to the safe-haven asset class as concerns about rising Covid-19 infections in various countries has created a growing sense of uneasiness.

 

·         Gold Prices Extend Higher as Yields Fall, ECB Meeting in Focus

 

Gold prices rallied to an eight-week high as viral resurgence in some parts of the world dampened the growth outlook, boosting the demand for safety. While stocks have rebounded overnight, the market remains jittery about the unwinding of “reflation trades”. This encouraged investors to reassess recovery prospects and reshuffle their portfolios towards a more balanced setting.

 

Haven-linked Treasuries were bid during early in the APAC trading session, sending the 10-year rate to a six-week low of 1.538%. The real yield, as represented by the 10-year inflation-indexed security, also declined by 2 bps to -0.80%. Falling real yields boosted the appeal of precious metals as the opportunity cost of holding them decreased.





Traders will also keep an eye on the upcoming ECB interest rate decision for clues about the central bank’s monetary policy guidance. The ECB is widely expected to keep its policy unchanged and maintain an accommodative stance amid a third viral wave in the region. A relatively slower pace of vaccination compared to the UK and US suggests that the Eurozone is likely to suffer greater economic hardship in the months to come. Against this backdrop, the chance for the ECB to stay dovish is higher.

 

The risk is when the central bank decides to pull back the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) after front-loading payments in March. ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference after the meeting, and her speech will be closely scrutinized by currency and gold traders.




Technically, gold has likely formed a “Double Bottom” chart pattern after hitting US$ 1,677 twice. The “Double Bottom” pattern usually appears at the end of a downtrend and may be viewed as a strong bullish signal. Prices breached above an immediate resistance level at US$ 1,785 - the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement- and thus opened the door for further upside potential.




The next resistance level can be found at the 100-day SMA line (1,794). A daily close above this level would likely intensify near-term buying pressure and expose the next resistance level of US$ 1,818 – the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A swing lower however, may bring the immediate support level of US$ 1,785 (previous resistance) into focus.


·         Among other precious metals, silver eased 0.1% to $26.55 per ounce and platinum slipped 0.2% to $1,211.96.

 

Reference: CNBC, FX Empire,DailyFX

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