• China is set to report GDP numbers on Monday.

    15 Jan 2021 | Economic News
  

China is set to report GDP numbers on Monday.

 

China’s new economic data next week will likely confirm the country as one of the few economies that grew in 2020 despite challenges from the Covid pandemic, said analysts.

 

China will release official data on Monday which includes fourth-quarter gross domestic product — tracked as an indicator of China’s economic health, but which outside experts have long expressed skepticism over the veracity of the reports.

 

China was the first country to report cases of the coronavirus in December 2019.

 

While there have been pockets of occasional outbreaks in some regions, the Chinese economy has largely recovered since reporting a 6.8% year-on-year slump in the first quarter of 2020, when the country locked down to contain Covid-19.  


Economists polled by Reuters expect China’s recovery to accelerate in the final months of last year. They forecast a median 6.1% year-over-year jump in GDP in the fourth quarter — improving from the previous quarter’s 4.9% growth. 

 

Here’s what some economists are saying about the Chinese economy.

 

Nomura — stronger exports

 

Forecast: GDP growth of 5.7% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, and 2.1% year-on-year in 2020.

 

ING — potential ‘upside surprise’

 

Forecast: GDP growth of 5.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter

 

ING noted that growth in Chinese exports “nearly doubled” to 17% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, from 8.9% in the third quarter.

 

“This should outweigh any possible softening of domestic demand due to the renewed virus threat,” the bank said in a note.

 

Barclays — catch up in services

 

Forecast: GDP growth of 6.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, and 2.3% year-on-year in 2020.

 

 Natixis — better outlook for 2021

 

Forecast: GDP growth of 6.3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, and 2.3% year-on-year in 2020.

 

“As China is likely to pass the freezing winter with continued scrutiny on the Covid-19, its economy is bound to improve, extending the current momentum toward a more solid economic rebound in 2021,” said the bank.

 

However, Chinese economic performance will also be affected by the external environment, “which will not only depend on global recovery on the back of effective vaccines and its rollout but also the evolution of the uncertain US-China relationship,” said Natixis.

 

Reference: CNBC

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