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Gold for the 4th straight week proved to be directionless with moves limited in a range although its continuously sending bullish signals via breakouts over and over again. Probably it can be seen as a wait and watch game going on in gold as it seeks further direction from U.S Fed which is due to meet on 16th for its monetary policy or maybe its the same old operator play happening before a substantial move where all the retail bets are cleaned up before any actual movement. This stalemate from gold can be clearly contradicted by a breakdown in dollar and the ailing fundamentals across the the globe which is still reeling under pressure of the pandemic along with geopolitical tensions which seem to tag along without any concessions. All the buzz around a probable vaccine and its availability remains just a noise until one is actually cleared by the FDA which continues to be a generator of uncertainty. Going with the above factors it is quite easy to detect the ongoing trend of gold which remains bullish until things make an one-eighty degree move. To watch next week – U.S fed meeting, Brexit talks and other important economic data.
On the chart –
While gold poses indecisiveness chart suggests otherwise as pattern breakouts are being registered and tested almost every week which advocate continuity of the trend once the lull ends. Last week once again gold had a triangle breakout which can be eyed as an extension of previous triangle which had already been broken. The 10 day moving average (weekly) has also been tested as it caught up with time consolidation suggesting gold might finally be ready to make a directive move. We have 2 scenarios –
1. Gold closed above the support, till this is held it can go to $1945. If this is crossed it can move towards $1963. And if this is taken out it can rally to $1989.
2. Short bets continue to be void in the given situation except scalp trades.
Bullish view – Bulls again held the support of previous high as they continue to fight in the consolidation. It might be tiring for the bulls to just hang around without being able to push the price higher but this movement only strengthens the trend as the supports are getting stronger with every retest with a possibility of a large move remaining high. Apart from the ongoing uncertainty caused by pandemic and other cross border tensions, technically gold has provided another breakout which should aid the bulls further for the quest of $2700 plus in medium to long term.
Bears still don’t find any trade support as trend remains bullish .
On larger terms, Gold continues to remain bullish and prices are expected to head higher.
Possible trades are on both sides but mainly on upside, gold can be bought above $1947 for the targets of $1963 and $1989 with a stop loss placed below $1935. Longer term target $2008.
Dips towards support (and breakout region) can be used to create longs for the above mentioned targets.
Shorts can be useful for scalp trades only.
Reference: Trading View