• MTS Economic News 20200511

    11 May 2020 | Economic News


·         CORONAVIRUS CRISIS:

Ø  Total confirmed cases: More than 4,179,839

Ø  Total deaths: At least 283,850

Ø  The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 212 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances: the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan, and the Holland America's MS Zaandam cruise ship.

Ø  US cases: At least 1,367,638 and deaths: 80,787

Ø  Spain cases: At least 264,663 and deaths: 26,621

Ø  UK cases: At least 219,183 and deaths: 31,855

Ø  Italy cases: At least 219,070 and deaths: 30,560

Ø  Russia cases: At least 209,688 and deaths: 1,915

Ø  Thailand cases: At least 3,009 (+5) and deaths: 56

 

·         US is risking a second coronavirus wave and a depression, economist Mark Zandi warns

Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics is getting increasingly worried states are taking a large gamble by reopening businesses too quickly.

He warns a spark in new coronavirus infections would send the economy further into tailspin — especially since there’s no vaccine.

“If we get a second wave, it will be a depression,” the firm’s chief economist told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday. “We may not shut down again, but certainly it will scare people and spook people and weigh on the economy.”

Zandi defines a depression as 12 months or more of double digit unemployment.

 

·         Pence to distance for next couple days after his press secretary tests positive for coronavirus
Vice President Mike Pence will distance himself from others for the next couple days after his press secretary tested positive for coronavirus, a senior official told NBC News on Sunday.
The official said Pence’s precautions did not amount to self isolation because there are no restrictions on his schedule. Pence will be low key for the next couple days, the official said, but that doesn’t mean anything for next week.

The Associated Press, also citing an official, said Pence would indeed self isolate.

“Vice President Pence will continue to follow the advice of the White House Medical Unit and is not in quarantine,” said Devin O’Malley, the vice president’s spokesman. “Additionally, Vice President Pence has tested negative every single day and plans to be at the White House tomorrow.”

 

·         Here’s what travel will look like after the Covid-19 pandemic finally recedes


The coronavirus pandemic has brought the travel and tourism industry to a standstill — when it does reopen, expers say look for it to start with road trips not far from home. The new travel normal may mean a shift to vacation rentals over hotels, driving rather than flying, and an increase in the use of travel insurance and personal travel advisors.

“Tourism recovery typically begins locally,” said Elizabeth Monahan, spokesperson for TripAdvisor.com. “Travelers tend to first venture out closer to home, and visit their local eateries, stay local for a weekend getaway or travel domestically before a robust demand for international travel returns.”

 

·         Dollar gains after April US non-farm payrolls report

The U.S. dollar rose on Friday after data showed the world’s largest economy lost fewer jobs than expected last month on fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

The greenback was on track to post its largest weekly gain versus the euro in more than a month, although that was more related to the European single currency concerning the European Central Bank’s asset purchases.

In mid-morning trading, the dollar rose 0.3% against the yen to 106.57 yen, while the euro was flat against the dollar to $1.0827.

The dollar index, as a result, was up 0.1% at 99.824.

Risk appetite was broadly higher on the day, with U.S. stocks and Treasury yields higher.

 

·         A record 20.5 million jobs were lost in April as unemployment rate jumps to 14.7%


The impact of the coronavirus-induced economic shutdown tore through the U.S. labor market in April at historic levels, slashing 20.5 million workers from nonfarm payrolls and sending the unemployment rate skyrocketing to 14.7%, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Both numbers easily smashed post-World War II era records and help reflect the profound damage done through efforts used to combat the virus.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting payrolls to shed 21.5 million and the unemployment rate to go to 16%. April’s unemployment rate topped the post-war record 10.8% but was short of the Great Depression high estimated at 24.9%. The financial crisis peak was 10% in October 2009.

A more encompassing measure that includes those not looking for work as well as those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons also hit an all-time high of 22.8%. That reading may be a more accurate picture of the current jobs situation as millions of workers are being paid to stay home and thus not willing or able to look for new jobs. Its previous worst level was 17.2% in April 2010.

The jump in the “real” unemployment rate reflected a plunge in the labor participation rate to 60.7%, its lowest level since 1973.

 

·         U.S. unemployment rate will get worse, Treasury's Mnuchin says

The staggering U.S. unemployment rate reported by the government on Friday amid coronavirus lockdowns may get even worse, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday.

“The reported numbers are probably going to get worse before they get better,” Mnuchin told the Fox News Sunday program.

The unemployment rate surged to 14.7% in April, the Department of Labor reported.

That shattered the post-World War Two record of 10.8% touched in November 1982.

 

·         U.S. next week to start purchasing $3 billion worth of farm goods: Trump

President Donald Trump on Saturday said the United States will next week begin purchasing $3 billion worth of dairy, meat and produce from farmers as unemployment soars and people are forced to food lines.

“Starting early next week, at my order, the USA will be purchasing, from our Farmers, Ranchers & Specialty Crop Growers, 3 Billion Dollars worth of Dairy, Meat & Produce for Food Lines & Kitchens,” Trump wrote in a post on Twitter.

It was unclear whether his statement referred to a $19 billion relief plan announced by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in April. The agency said it would buy $3 billion worth of agricultural commodities as part of that program.

The White House did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

 

·         No end to lockdown yet but 'careful' easing begins, British PM Johnson says

The coronavirus lockdown will not end yet, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Sunday, urging people to “stay alert” to the risks as he outlined plans to begin slowly easing measures that have closed much of the economy for seven weeks.

While his directions were for England, the government wants the United Kingdom’s other nations to take the same approach. But there were immediate divisions, with the leaders of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland saying they were sticking with the existing “stay-at-home” message.

 

·         UK wants to 'slowly and cautiously' ease lockdown to restart economy: minister

The British government wants to slowly and cautiously restart the economy, housing minister Robert Jenrick said on Sunday ahead of a televised address from the prime minister to set out plans to begin easing the coronavirus lockdown measures.

It has been nearly seven weeks since Boris Johnson asked Britons to stay at home to help prevent the spread of the virus, all but shutting down the economy.

 

 

·         Russian coronavirus cases above 200,000

The Russian authorities said on Sunday they had recorded 11,012 new cases of the coronavirus in the last 24 hours, bringing the nationwide tally to 209,688.

Russia’s coronavirus taskforce said 88 people had died in the past day, pushing the national death toll to 1,915.

Russian coronavirus cases overtook French and German infections this week to become the fifth highest in the world.

 

 

·         China central bank signals more policy measures to support virus-ravaged economy

China’s central bank said on Sunday it will step up counter-cyclical adjustments to support the economy and make monetary policy more flexible to fend off financial risks.

The first-quarter monetary policy implementation report from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) did not repeat the central bank’s long-standing vow to refrain from “flood-like” stimulus to support growth, reinforcing signs of more policy measures.

China’s long-term stable economic trend remains unchanged, despite the coronavirus outbreak, the central bank said.

 

·         Japan to compile second extra budget to combat coronavirus pandemic: Nikkei

Japan will compile a second supplementary budget for the current fiscal year to fund additional measures to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Monday.

The government plans to pass the supplementary budget through the current parliamentary session that runs through June 17, the paper said, without citing sources.

 

·         Crude rallies as market eyes tightened global supply picture

Oil futures rallied in final minutes of trading to settle up 5% on the day as the global supply picture in the wake of more producers announcing cuts Friday.

NYMEX June WTI settled up $1.19 at $24.74/b, the highest front-month print since April 8, and ICE July Brent was up $1.51 on the day at $30.97/b. WTI climbed 25% over the past five days as numerous upstream players have announced capex reductions and production cuts in first quarter earnings this week.

 

·         Oil prices fall 1% as glut weighs

Oil prices opened about 1% lower on Sunday as a persistent glut continued to weigh on prices and the coronavirus pandemic eroded global oil demand even as some governments began to ease lockdowns.

Brent crude LCOc1 was down 34 cents, or 1.1%, at $30.63 a barrel by 7:01 p.m. (2301 GMT), while U.S. oil CLc1 fell 35 cents, or 1.4%, to $24.39 a barrel.

Global oil demand has plummeted by about 30% as the coronavirus pandemic curtailed movement across the world.

 

Reference: CNBC, Reuters, S&P Global



MTS Gold Co., Ltd.
40,42,44, Sapsin Road, Wang Burapha Phirom Sub-district, Pranakorn District, Bangkok, 10200
Tel. 0 2770 7777 Fax. 0 2623 9366 E-mail: support@mtsgoldgroup.com