· The safe-haven yen hovered near a seven-week high against the dollar on Thursday as investors limited their exposure to riskier assets amid dire global economic data, rising trade tensions and concerns over the euro zone.
The yen last stood at 106.15, after rising to 105.985 per dollar in the previous session, its firmest since mid-March. Against the euro, it traded at 114.66 yen per euro, having hit a 3 1/2-year high of 114.43 overnight.
The yuan firmed about 0.1% to 7.0959 to the dollar while the Aussie ticked up 0.25% to $0.6420.
The euro was little changed at $1.0801 after three straight days of falls so far this week, hit also by the German court decision challenging the country’s participation in the European Central Bank’s stimulus.
The British pound eased a tad on Thursday to $1.2322 , touching its lowest level in almost two weeks.
· Turkey’s lira hits its lowest level ever
The lira fell as low as 7.49 to the dollar on Thursday, passing its previous record low of 7.236 during Turkey’s August 2018 currency crisis.
The Turkish currency has been under mounting pressure amid rising inflation, growing unemployment and slow growth — and now, the highest number of coronavirus cases in the Middle East region.
· EUR/USD Forecast: Decline set to extend
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
The bearish pressure mounts around the EUR/USD pair, which barely holds above the 1.0800 figure. The 4-hour chart shows that the 20 SMA has turned sharply lower and is about to cross below the 100 and 200 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain flat near their daily lows, showing no signs of changing direction. A steeper decline could be expected on renewed selling interest below 1.0790, the immediate support.
Support levels: 1.0790 1.0755 1.0710
Resistance levels: 1.0830 1.0865 1.0900
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS:
Ø Total confirmed cases: More than 3,822,295
Ø Total deaths: At least 265,116
Ø The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 212 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances: The list of countries and territories and their continental regional classification is based on the United Nations Geoscheme.
Ø US cases: At least 1,263,224 (+132) and deaths: 74,809 (+10)
Ø Thailand cases: At least 2,992 (+3) and deaths: 55
· China reported that its dollar-denominated exports rose but imports fell for the month of April as movement restrictions to contain the coronavirus outbreak eased.
Data from the General Administration of Customs released on Thursday showed exports rose 3.5% from a year ago while imports fell 14.2% in the same period.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected exports to have fallen 15.7% in April from a year earlier while imports were expected to have fallen 11.2% from a year earlier.
Chinese businesses are reopening and getting back to work as the daily number of new coronavirus cases slow in the country.
But the situation remains serious in the rest of the world with more than 3.74 million people infected so far, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Many economies have come to a halt due to widespread lockdowns, hitting consumption and demand.
· Trump says could say in a week or two whether China adhering to trade deal
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he would be able to report in about a week or two whether China is fulfilling its obligations under a Phase 1 trade deal the two countries signed in January before the coronavirus spread globally.
He said China was buying a lot of American farm products, but questioned whether the purchases were at the levels needed to meet the deal’s commitments on U.S. agricultural and manufactured goods, energy and services.
Washington has pledged to launch negotiations with Beijing on a Phase 2 trade deal tackling government subsidies and thornier technology transfer issues, but there has been no effort to start these talks since the coronavirus has locked down large parts of the U.S. economy.
· New Zealand said on Thursday that retail, domestic travel and local sport can resume if social restrictions are eased next week, as the country prepares to end months of economic disruptions due to the coronavirus.
· US Nonfarm Payrolls to show record job losses - Refinitiv poll
The US Nonfarm Payrolls report scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT on Friday is expected to show the economy shed 21.85 million jobs in April to hit the largest number since records began in 1939, according to economists polled by Refinitiv. The poll says the jobless rate soared to 16%.
If payrolls drop by 21.85 million in April, the combined two-month decline would wipe out all jobs gained over the past decade. The economy added 22.8 million jobs between March 2010 and February 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
· Millions more Americans likely sought unemployment benefits last week, suggesting a broadening of layoffs from consumer facing industries to other segments of the economy and could remain elevated even as many parts of the country start to reopen.
“Even with the economy slowly starting to reopen, the number of unemployed should continue to rise sharply as governments, as well as businesses that have tried but not succeeded at holding the line, are now laying off workers,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economics in Holland, Pennsylvania.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits likely totaled a seasonally adjusted 3.0 million for the week ended May 2, according to a Reuters survey of economists. That would be down from 3.839 million in the prior week and mark the fifth straight weekly decrease in applications since hitting a record 6.867 million in the week ended March 28.
Last week’s filings would lift the number of people who filed claims for unemployment benefits to about 33.3 million since March 21, roughly 22% of the working age population.
· Rising tensions between China and the United States are problematic for all sides and not conducive for the broad multinational cooperation needed to deal with the coronavirus pandemic, the European Union’s ambassador to China said on Thursday.
Nicolas Chapuis told reporters during a briefing that China needs to act to alleviate tensions and further its economic reforms to avoid destruction of global supply chains, decoupling of top economies and rise of protectionism.
· The Bank of England on Thursday held interest rates at 0.1% but said it stands ready to take further action should the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic continue to deteriorate.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, the central bank has cut rates twice from 0.75% to 0.1% and announced £200 billion ($247.55 billion) of new quantitative easing, bringing its bond buying program to a total of £645 billion.
· As countries across the globe are left grappling with the coronavirus crisis, most people are not satisfied with their leaders’ response to the outbreak, according to a new report.
Citizens from just seven out of 23 countries rate their governments’ coronavirus containment measures as broadly positive, based on the “Global Crisis Perceptions” index released Wednesday by insights agencies Blackbox Research and Toluna.
The research, which surveyed approximately 12,500 people across 23 countries between April 3 and 19, asked respondents to rate their nations across four key indicators: national political leadership, corporate leadership, community and media.
China, where the virus is thought to have originated, ranked highest in the citizens’ survey, with a score of 85 out of 100. The world’s second-largest economy was followed by Vietnam (77), the United Arab Emirates (59) and India (59), in a list which saw Asian countries take the top spots.
· Top US-China trade negotiators plan a phone call as early as next week – Bloomberg
Citing sources familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reports that top US-China trade negotiators plan a phone call as early as next week.
The call is likely to be on the progress in implementing the Phase One trade deal following threats from US President Donald Trump about the agreement.
· Escalation in US-China tensions is ‘the last thing’ anyone needs, JPMorgan says
With the world already reeling from the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, a reignition in U.S.-China trade tensions would be the “the last thing” anyone needs, according to JPMorgan Asset Management’s Alexander Treves.
Those comments came on the back of data released Thursday which showed China’s exports besting expectations in April, a statistic Treves told CNBC’s “Street Signs” was “very, very surprising.”
“This means that economies are maybe working better than one might have thought, but the other thing which immediately came to me is I would like to see what the trade surplus number with the U.S. looks like,” Treves, who is managing director and investment specialist of emerging markets and Asia Pacific equities at JPMorgan Asset Management, told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Thursday.
“If the U.S. administration decides that actually these export numbers show that somehow China’s been benefiting unfairly, compared to expectations from the current situation, then that might lead to a ratcheting up of trade tension,” he said. “Frankly speaking, that’s the last thing that any of us need right now.”
· WTI Price Analysis: 50-day average applies brakes to price rally
West Texas Intermediate's recovery rally looks to have stalled, as the black gold has failed twice in the last 24 hours to keep gains above the 50-day average hurdle.
At press time, the front-month contract is trading at $24.22, having hit a high of the 50-day average of $24.56 in early Asia.
Oil fell by 2% on Wednesday after facing rejection above the crucial average hurdle, snapping a five-day winning streak, which was the longest stretch of daily gains since December 2019.
While the 50-day average is capping upside, the downside is being restricted by the 50-hour average since Wednesday's American trading hours. As of writing, the 50-hour average is located at $23.67.
If the 50-hour average fuels a price bounce above $25.00, a bull flag breakout would be confirmed on the hourly chart. That would create room for a rally to $33 (target as per the measured move method).
Meanwhile, acceptance under the 50-hour average will likely yield a deeper pullback to $22.58 horizontal support on the hourly chart), under which the major support is located at $20.48 (lower end of the flag).
· Oil prices extended losses on Thursday as the industry grappled with the growing global surplus of crude and the sharp coronavirus-led downturn in demand, with the outlook still grim despite April data showing a rise in imports into China.
Brent crude LCOc1 was down by 24 cents, or 0.8%, to $29.48 a barrel by 0649 GMT, after dropping 4% on Wednesday.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures CLc1 dropped 34 cents, or 1.4%, to $23.65 a barrel, having declined more than 2% in the previous session.
Reference: Reuters, Worldometers, FX Street,CNBC
Thai
Eng