· CORONAVIRUS UPDATES:
Ø Total confirmed cases: More than 3,644,795
Ø Total deaths: At least 252,364
Ø The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 212 countries and territories around the world and 2international conveyances: The list of countries and territories and their continental regional classification is based on the United Nations Geoscheme.
Ø US cases: At least 1,212,835 and deaths: 69,921
Ø Thailand cases: At least 2,987 and deaths: 54
· New projection shows about 135,000 US deaths from Covid-19 by August with lockdown measures being lifted
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimates nearly 135,000 coronavirus deaths in the US through the beginning of August, citing the easing of lockdown orders as the main driver of the new number, Reuters reports.
The forecast from the IHME puts the U.S. death toll through early August at 134,475, the midrange between 95,092 and 242,890.
The new projections reflect reopening measures underway across the country and the increase of social contact between people that will increase transmission, the IHME said, according to Reuters.
“This new model is the basis for the sobering new estimate of U.S. deaths,” IHME Director Christopher Murray said about the reopening measures, Reuters reported.
· HSBC expects a ‘jagged U-shaped recovery’ and backs these currencies to thrive
The global economy is most likely set for a U-shaped recovery with a “jagged bottom” after the coronavirus crisis, and will benefit currencies in countries with strong fiscal positions, according to HSBC.
Speaking to CNBC Monday, Head of Global Foreign Exchange Strategy David Bloom outlined the bank’s game plan in the event of L-, U- and V-shaped recoveries, emphasizing that analysts should be making plans for all eventualities.
In a U-shaped scenario, the economy fails to respond immediately to exits from lockdowns around the world, but the expectation for a delayed rebound remains in place with multiple “false dawns,” Bloom suggested, causing a “jagged bottom” to the U curve.
He suggested that while the situation is unlikely to worsen beyond last month’s unprecedented crash in oil price futures to negative $40 and tens of millions of job losses, the assumption of a V-shaped recovery similar to the one that emerged after the financial crisis was optimistic.
· US Treasury seeks to borrow a record $3 trillion this quarter
Massive stimulus to support the U.S. economy through the coronavirus crisis will cause the Treasury to borrow a record $3 trillion this quarter.
The department on Monday announced the total, which is actually $2.999 trillion.
“The increase in privately-held net marketable borrowing is primarily driven by the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, including expenditures from new legislation to assist individuals and businesses, changes to tax receipts including the deferral of individual and business taxes from April – June until July, and an increase in the assumed end-of-June Treasury cash balance,” the department said in a statement.
On top of that borrowing, the Treasury also said it anticipates another $677 billion in the third quarter. First-quarter borrowing totaled $477 billion.
· Economists say the way out of the recession depends on the level of consumer fear
Economists are looking for new ways to measure a rebound from a deep recession, suggesting that the recovery will depend on individual psychology, overall consumer confidence, and also whether the government was successful enough in filling the income gap for the workers who lost their jobs.
“It’s much more behavioral. It’s not just driven by incomes. It’s driven by fear,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. Economists have been looking to China as an example, since the disease started there. “Even a month after they reopened in Wuhan, people are still worried about going to public places and malls.”
· U.S. Senate returns to Washington amid concerns about coronavirus risk
The U.S. Senate convened in Washington for the first time in nearly six weeks on Monday, despite concern it might put lawmakers and staff at risk of contracting the coronavirus, but made clear it could take weeks to pass any new relief legislation.
· The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 99.498 after seeing levels above 99.5 earlier.
The Japanese yen traded at 106.63 per dollar after seeing levels around 107 yesterday. The Australian dollar changed hands at $0.6431 after crossing the $0.654 level last week.
· U.S. should drop tariffs on pandemic-related goods for 90 days: key lawmaker
The U.S. government should suspend all tariffs on products needed to combat the coronavirus pandemic for 90 days and take steps to boost domestic production of medical supplies and drugs, a key U.S. lawmaker said on Monday.
· Britain needs good trade deal with EU to remove uncertainty for U.S. firms: U.S. Chamber
The top U.S. business lobby on Monday urged Britain to conclude a bilateral trade deal with the European Union as quickly as possible to remove uncertainty that is limiting investment flows and could pose risks to its trade talks with the United States.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, in a series of recommendations issued ahead of the start of U.S.-UK trade talks on Tuesday, said U.S. firms had invested more than $750 billion in Britain, in large part to secure access to the larger EU single market before Britain voted to leave the bloc.
· Oil pares losses and jumps 3% as lockdowns ease
Oil rose on Monday as more countries announced they would begin easing coronavirus lockdowns and crude supply cuts take hold, though a fresh spat between the United States and China over the origin of the virus limited the rise in prices.
Worldwide fuel demand fell by an estimated 30% in April largely due to stay-at-home orders, and weak consumption is expected to overhang the crude market for months, even as major world oil-producing nations and companies quickly reduce output. However, analysts have said that swift action by those parties could help reduce the supply glut more quickly.
Brent crude gained 28 cents, or 1.1%, to $26.72 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 61 cents, or 3.08%, to settle at $20.39 per barrel.
In addition to fresh cuts that began this month by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, oil and gas output from some of the world’s top oil companies is set to drop in the second quarter of 2020 to levels not seen in at least 17 years.
Goldman Sachs said it is growing more optimistic about the rise of oil prices next year due to lower crude production and a partial recovery in oil demand.
The Wall Street bank raised its 2021 forecast for global benchmark Brent to $55.63 per barrel from $52.50 earlier. The bank hiked its estimate for WTI to $51.38 a barrel from $48.50 previously.
The re-emergence of trade tensions between the United States and China limited the rise in prices.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat last week to impose tariffs on China, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Sunday there was “a significant amount of evidence” that the new coronavirus emerged from a Chinese laboratory.
Oil prices recovered some of their losses after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he expected China to make good on its trade agreement with the United States. He also said he expected oil markets to rebound, and that the Trump administration was looking for more storage capacity.
Reference: CNBC, Reuters
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