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CORONAVIRUS CRISIS:

Ø  Total confirmed cases: More than 3,074,553

Ø  Total deaths: At least 211,773

Ø  The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 210 countries and territories around the world and 2international conveyances: the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored inYokohama, Japan, and the Holland America's MS Zaandam cruise ship.

Ø  US cases: At least 1,010,507 (+151) and deaths: 56,803 (+6)

Ø  Thailand cases: At least 2,938 (+7) and deaths: 54 (+2)

·       The dollar steadied on Tuesday as currency markets entered a holding pattern ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings later this week and as a fresh tumble in oil prices cautioned against risk taking.

The greenback was flat against most majors, apart from a New Zealand dollar weighed down by expectations of further monetary easing.

“The (Fed) has so many new programs in play, it is doubtful they follow with anything new,” said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at AxiCorp.

“The ECB could do something though it is not clear what,” he said. “Hence the reason FX markets are stuck in neutral today.”

The dollar held steady against a basket of currencies at 100.100 - about where it has been parked for a month. It was a fraction softer against the yen at 107.17 yen per dollar and tad firmer on the euro and pound.

The single currency held at $1.0821. Elsewhere the pound was pegged lower at $1.2412 after Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned it was too dangerous to relax a strict lockdown in Britain.

The Australian dollar eased slightly to $0.6450, snapping four sessions of consecutive gains on optimism for a global economic re-start.

 

·       Georgia, at the vanguard of states testing the safety of reopening the U.S. economy in the midst of the coronavirus outbreak, permitted restaurant dining for the first time in a month on Monday while governors in regions with fewer cases also eased restrictions.

Alaska, Oklahoma and South Carolina, along with Georgia, previously took such steps after weeks of mandatory lockdowns that have thrown millions of Americans out of work and led to forecasts that an economic shock of historic proportions is at hand.

 

·       U.S. imposes new rules on exports to China to keep them from its military

The United States said on Monday it will impose new restrictions on exports to China to keep semiconductor production equipment and other technology away from Beijing’s military

The new rules will require licenses for U.S. companies to sell certain items to companies in China that support the military, even if the products are for civilian use. They also do away with a civilian exception that allows certain U.S. technology to be exported without a license.

The rules, which were posted for public inspection and will be published in the Federal Register on Tuesday, could hurt the semiconductor industry and sales of civil aviation parts and components to China.

 

·       China could have choked off the Mekong and aggravated a drought, threatening the lifeline of millions in Asia

China’s upstream activities along the Mekong River have long been contentious — but a recent study has sparked fresh scrutiny over its dam-building exercises, reigniting warnings that millions of livelihoods could be destroyed.

A U.S.-government funded study by research and consulting firm, Eyes on Earth, found that Chinese dams are holding back large amounts of water upstream on the Mekong, which exacerbated a severe drought in the Southeast Asian countries downstream last year.

China dismissed the scientific report as “groundless.”

The 4,350 kilometer (2,700 mile) Mekong River runs through six countries. Starting from China — where it is called the Lancang River — it flows past countries like Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Myanmar, before emptying into the South China Sea via Vietnam.

China built its first dam on the upper Mekong in the 1990s and currently runs 11 dams along the river. The country has plans to build more dams, which are used to generate hydropower.

 

·       Japan’s government said on Tuesday it will change the way it compiles preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) data for the January to March period to better reflect the impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

The Cabinet Office said it usually uses data from January and February to estimate some figures for March but it will take available data from industries for the month in calculating GDP for the first quarter.

For example, it will use sales figures on beer and beverages from major companies and data from a restaurant association for the month

 

·       China's April factory activity seen expanding as lockdowns ease: Reuters poll

China’s factory activity likely rose for a second straight month in April as more businesses re-opened from strict lockdowns implemented to contain the coronavirus outbreak, which has now paralysed the global economy.

The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), due for release on Thursday, is forecast to fall to 51 in April, from 52 in March, according to the median forecast of 32 economists polled by Reuters. A reading above the 50-point mark indicates an expansion in activity.

While the forecast PMI would show a slight moderation in China’s factory activity growth, it would be a stark contrast to recent PMIs in other economies, which plummeted to previously unimaginable lows.

That global slump, caused by heavy government-ordered lockdowns, as well as the cautious resumption of business in China, suggests any recovery in the world’s second-largest economy is likely to be some way off.

 

·       In lockdown UK shoppers make fewer supermarket trips but spend more: Kantar

British grocery sales grew 5.5% year-on-year in the four weeks to April 19 as consumers adapted to life under coronavirus lockdown, making fewer trips to stores but spending more when there, industry data showed on Tuesday.

Market researcher Kantar said that while April’s growth was significantly lower than March’s record growth of 20.6% when Britons were building-up stocks for the lockdown, sales were still 524 million pounds ($652 million) higher than they were in April 2019.

It said on average, UK households shopped only 14 times for groceries over the four weeks, a record low and down from 17 in more normal times.

 

·       German economy to contract by 6.6% in 2020: Ifo

German economic institute Ifo on Tuesday said it expected the economy to contract by 6.6% in 2020 year-on-year due to the coronavirus pandemic.

It said Europe’s largest economy shrank by 1.9% in the first three months of 2020 and is expecting a 12.2% contraction in the second quarter.

A return to the pre-crisis level is expected for the end of 2021, Ifo said.

 

·       Spain's unemployment rises to 14.4% in first quarter

Spain’s unemployment rate rose to 14.4% in the first quarter of the year, data from the National Statistics Institute showed on Tuesday, as a result of the lockdown imposed in mid-March to slow the coronavirus pandemic.

The jobless rate in the first quarter compared with 13.8% in the fourth quarter of 2019 and a forecast of 15.6% by economists polled by Reuters.

The data released on Tuesday is only partial as the country went into lockdown only two weeks before the end of the quarter and most of the household survey on which the indicator is based had already been carried out, the statistics institute said.

Spain, which has the world’s third-highest death toll from the disease after the United States and Italy, has banned most outings since March 14.

 

·       Kim Jong Un may have missed a key holiday on April 15 because of concerns over the coronavirus, not because he is ill, South Korea’s minister for North Korean affairs said on Tuesday.

North Korean leader Kim’s absence from public ceremonies on the birth anniversary of his grandfather and founder of the country, Kim Il Sung, was unprecedented, and he has not been seen in public since. That has led to days of speculation over his health.

 

·       Oil plunges 16%, extending Monday’s 25% decline    

Oil prices fell 16% in Tuesday early morning trading, extending Monday’s nearly 25% decline on ongoing fears that storage around the world is rapidly filling.

West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, slipped 16.12%, or $2.06, to trade at $10.72 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude traded 5.45% lower at $18.90 per barrel. On Monday, WTI fell 24.56%, or $4.16, to settle at $12.78 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude fell 6.76% to settle at $19.99. Each contract is coming off its eighth week of losses in nine weeks.

The coronavirus pandemic has erased as much as a third of global demand for oil, according to some estimates, which has sent prices tumbling to record lows.

 

·       Crude Oil Price Forecast

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market fell rather hard during the trading session on Monday as we continue to see a lot of weakness in this contract. After all, we are running out of places to store oil, so nobody wants to take delivery of it. In other words, there simply are no bids. Furthermore, after seeing what happened with the May contract, a lot of traders are going to be overly cautious about buying this contract in general. Demand is still very weak, and that is not going to change anytime soon. Oversupply and lack of demand brings gravity to the markets. I would not be surprised at all to see this one trade negative eventually. Rallies towards the $20 level are selling opportunities, the $10 level should be short-term support.