• MTS Economic News_20200416

    16 Apr 2020 | Economic News

Latest on the spread of the coronavirus around the world

Ø Total confirmed cases: More than 2,084,792

Ø Total deaths: At least 134,686

Ø The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 210 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances: the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan, and the Holland America's MS Zaandam cruise ship.

Ø US cases: At least 644,348 (+259), and deaths: 28,554 (+25)

Ø Spain cases: At least 180,659, and deaths: 18,812

Ø Italy cases: At least 165,155, and deaths: 21,645

Ø Thailand cases: At least 2,672 (+29), and deaths: 46 (+3)

· IMF expects Asia growth to be at its lowest in 60 years

The International Monetary Fund said in it expects growth in Asia to stall at zero percent in 2020.

“This is the worst growth performance in almost 60 years, including during the Global Financial Crisis (4.7 percent) and the Asian Financial Crisis (1.3 percent),” Chang Yong Rhee, director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific department, wrote in a blog post.

However, he added that Asia still looks to fare better than other regions in terms of economic activity.

Rhee said downward revisions are substantial, ranging from 3.5 percentage points in the case of South Korea, to over 9 percentage points in the case of Australia, Thailand and New Zealand. The latter three countries have been hit by the global tourism slowdown while Australia has also been affected by lower commodity prices.

China is projected to decline from 6.1% in 2019 to 1.2% in 2020. Overall, IMF expects the global economy to contract in 2020 by 3%, describing it as “the worst recession since the Great Depression.”

The IMF on Tuesday said the global economy is expected to shrink by 3% this year. The economies of Asia’s largest trading partners are expected to experience deep contractions: The U.S. is projected to shrink by5.9%, while the euro area as a whole is forecast to contract 7.5%.

“We cannot expect that magnitude of stimulus this time, and China won’t help Asia’s growth as it did in 2009,” he added.

As a result of that, the fund has made “substantial” downward revisions in its forecasts for Asian economies, said Chang. Here are some of those projections, according to prepared remarks by Rhee planned for a press conference in Washington D.C.:

Japan to shrink by 5.2%

India to grow by 1.9%

South Korea to shrink by 1.2%

Southeast Asia’s five largest economies — Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines — to collectively contract by 1.3%

Still, Asia “looks to fare better than other regions in terms of activity,” Rhee wrote in the blog post. He said growth in the region could rebound strongly in 2021 if measures to contain the virus and stimulus to support the economy work.

· Grab CEO says he anticipates transport business to bounce back once people start commuting again

Southeast Asia’s ride-hailing giant Grab saw its transport GMV fall by a double-digit percentage in some countries, CEO Anthony Tan told CNBC’s Nancy Hungerford in an interview.

GMV is a commonly tracked metric by internet companies that measures the total value of sales for goods and services sold on their platforms.

Tan said the company’s diversified business model, which includes food and grocery delivery, has helped it weather some of the impact brought about by the pandemic.

The company has adjusted to the environment by scaling up other business segments to meet demand spikes, and moving its supplies around to ensure drivers on its platform can still have income opportunities, he said.

The uptick in Grab’s delivery services has not completely offset the impact on the transport business, according to Tan.

“Looking ahead, though, I know that transport is a mass-market essential service, so we anticipate it will recover strongly once people start commuting again post lockdown,” he added.

· New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on Thursday that significant restrictions would be kept in place even if the country eases the nationwide one-month lockdown enforced to beat the spread of the coronavirus.

· Australia will keep in place restrictions implemented to curb the spread of the coronavirus for at least four more weeks, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Thursday, despite signs that Canberra has been successful in slowing infection rates.

Morrison said Australia will over the next month expand testing, improve its capacity to trace contacts of known coronavirus cases, and plan a response to any further local outbreaks.

Morrison said these three steps will be finished within four weeks, and Australia will then review the restrictions that include curtailing the movements of residents, and the closures of schools, restaurants and pubs.

· China reported on Thursday fewer new coronavirus cases involving travellers arriving from overseas, but locally transmitted infections rose, with the Chinese capital seeing new local cases for the first time in more than three weeks.

New imported cases dropped to 34 on Wednesday from 36 a day earlier, the National Health Commission said, down for the third straight day, amid stringent border checks and reduced international flights.

But the number of locally transmitted cases rose to 12 from 10 a day earlier, with the city of Beijing seeing three new local cases for the first time since March 23.

· Germany’s confirmed coronavirus cases have risen by 2,866 to 130,450, data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for infectious diseases showed on Thursday, meaning the number of new infections rose for a second consecutive day.

The reported death toll has risen by 315 to 3,569, the tally showed.

· UK to keep some social distancing until vaccine available: epidemiologist

Britain will probably have to maintain some level of social distancing until a vaccine for the novel coronavirus is available, Neil Ferguson, a professor who has helped shape the government’s response to the pandemic, said on Thursday.

“We will have to maintain some level of social distancing, a significant level of social distancing, probably indefinitely until we have a vaccine available,” Ferguson told BBC radio.

· As virus hits Japan, deflation risks grow while bars, restaurants ail

For someone like Sumako Furihata, who owns two small restaurants in Tokyo’s Akasaka nightlife district, the coronavirus health crisis has been a nightmare that crushed sales and put her in a difficult situation.

Many of her rivals in the district, which relies on lunch and dinner demand from business workers, are also suffering as more companies have employees work from home at the government’s request.

“The pace of fall in sales is much faster than during the global financial crisis,” said Furihata, who has temporarily shut down one of her restaurants.

The pandemic has throttled an economy already on the brink of recession as social distancing policies have forced sectors such as transport, retail and tourism to temporarily scale down.

Economists say the outbreak also risked increasing deflationary pressure in Japan as people stay at home more and spend less.

· The coronavirus outbreak has virtually shut down corporate Australia and New Zealand, forcing companies to throw out their strategic plans and resulting in thousands of layoffs or staff suspensions.

Listed companies in both the countries have already laid off or began considering laying off more than 100,000 people, temporarily or permanently, highlighting the toll on livelihoods as virtual shutdowns take hold.

Ultimately, economists forecast the crisis will more than double unemployment to more than 11%, the highest in three decades.

· Bank of America said Wednesday that first-quarter profit slumped 45% as the company set aside $3.6 billion for loan-loss reserves because of the coronavirus pandemic.

The bank posted profit of $4.01 billion, or 40 cents a share, compared with the 46 cent estimate of analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. Revenue of $22.8 billion essentially matched expectations, and trading results exceeded expectations by more than $500 million. Bank of America shares fell 6.5%.

· Dollar extends gains as US retail slump sparks flight to safety

A flight to safety bid pushed the dollar higher against its peers on Thursday after dire retail and factory data showed the severity of the collapse in U.S. economic activity caused by the novel coronavirus outbreak.

The dollar rose 0.2% to 99.831 against a basket of six other major currencies, turning positive on the week.

The euro dropped 0.25% to $1.0881, off its two-week high of $1.0980 hit in the previous session, while the dollar advanced 0.4% to 107.86 yen.

The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2482 after having lost nearly 1% in the previous session.

“The dollar is maintaining its momentum following U.S. data yesterday,” said Kazushige Kaida, head of foreign exchange at Tokyo Branch of State Street.

“But the main player in the market now is short-term leveraged accounts, or hot money. It is not like a lot of investors are taking part in this,” he added.

· U.S. weekly jobless claims seen underscoring deepening economic slump

Millions more Americans likely sought unemployment benefits last week, lifting total filings for claims over the past month above an astounding 20 million, which would underscore the deepening economic slump caused by the novel coronavirus outbreak.

Thursday’s weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department will follow dismal data on Wednesday showing a record drop in retail sales in March and the biggest decline in factory output since 1946.

Economists are predicting the economy, which they believe is already in recession, contracted in the first quarter at its sharpest pace since World War II.

“We expect that claims will remain very elevated in coming weeks as states struggle to clear backlogs and more companies lay off workers in response to the shutdown,” said Joseph Briggs, an economist at Goldman Sachs in New York.

“Including this week, we currently project an additional 20 million in initial jobless claims through the end of May, after which we expect new claims to fall to levels consistent with prior recessions.”

· Oil edges higher after hitting 18-year lows but demand outlook weighs

Oil edged higher on Thursday after sharp losses in the previous session, with investors hoping that a big build-up in U.S. inventories may mean producers have little option but to deepen output cuts as the coronavirus pandemic ravages demand.

With official data showing U.S. inventories surging the most on record, WTI fell on Wednesday to its lowest since February 2002, with Brent slumping more than 6%.

Brent crude LCOc1 was up 25 cents, or 0.9%, at $27.94 a barrel by 0643 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up 14 cents, or 0.7%, at $20.01.

Concerns about crumbling demand kept a lid on gains, with both contracts trading earlier in the session as much as 2.5% higher than on Wednesday.

Energy Information Administration data also showed large U.S. refined fuels stock builds despite refiners operating at 69% of capacity nationwide, the lowest since September 2008.


Reference: CNBC, Reuters, Worldometers, FX Street

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