• MTS Economic News_20200415

    15 Apr 2020 | Economic News

Latest on the spread of the coronavirus around the world

Ø  Total confirmed cases: More than 2,000,933

Ø  Total deaths: At least 126,779

Ø  The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 210 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances: the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan, and the Holland America's MS Zaandam cruise ship.

Ø  US cases: At least 614,246 (+360), and deaths: 26,064 (+17)

Ø  Spain cases: At least 174,0+0, and deaths: 18,255

Ø  Italy cases: At least 162,488, and deaths: 21,067

Ø  Thailand cases: At least 2,643 (+30), and deaths: 43 (+2).


· The dollar nursed losses on Wednesday as investors cautiously stepped into riskier currencies after U.S. President Donald Trump edged toward rolling back some restrictions put in place to contain the coronavirus outbreak.

The greenback also remains under pressure following heavy measures by the Federal Reserve to boost dollar supply, though analysts say it is too early for a full-scale retreat from safe-havens with the public health threat not yet fully contained.

The yuan eased after the People’s Bank of China nudged its guidance range for the currency slightly lower and cut the interest rate on its medium-term funding for financial institutions to a record low.

The dollar fell 0.16% to 107.05 yen JPY=EBS on Wednesday, close to its lowest level in a month, and also briefly slipped to $1.0994 per euro EUR=EBS, the weakest in two weeks.

But against sterling GBP=D3, the dollar managed to snap two days of losses and advanced to $1.2588.

Trump on Tuesday said he is close to completing a plan to end the coronavirus shutdown and would speak with governors of all 50 states to authorise them to open their economies in a timely manner.

However, many analysts remain cautious after Trump’s top infectious disease adviser said the U.S. president’s target for restarting the economy by May 1 was “overly optimistic.”


· EUR/USD Price Analysis: Sidelined after bullish daily close

EUR/USD is sidelined near 1.0980 at press time, having found acceptance above a key average hurdle during the overnight trade.

The pair jumped 0.67% on Tuesday and formed a green marubozu candle, which comprises a strong body and little or no wicks. The marubozu candle, a sign of strong bullish sentiment, also marked a daily close above the 50-day average and indicates scope for a rise to the 100-day average at 1.1030.

The bullish candle is also backed by an above-50 reading on the 14-day relative strength index.

The bullish bias would be invalidated if the spot drops below Tuesday's low of 1.0901.


· PBOC injects CNY 100 billion via 1-year MLF at 2.95%

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) extended one-year loans through its medium-term lending facility (MLF) on Wednesday by injecting CNY100 billion at a reduced lending rate unchanged of 2.95%.

The lending rate on one-year MLF was cut to 2.95% from 3.15% previous, the lowest rate ever for an MLF operation.


· The news is crossing the wires via NHK, Japan's national broadcasting organization, that Prime Minister Abe is considered the request made by the coalition partner to pay a cash handout of 100,000 yen per month.

The initial plan was to provide 300,000 yen (2,800 U.S. dollars), to households whose monthly income has dropped to a certain level in one month between February to June, according to news reports released Tuesday.


· Trump halts US funding for World Health Organization as it conducts coronavirus review

The U.S. will suspend funding to the World Health Organization while it reviews the agency’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic, President Donald Trump announced Tuesday, saying the international health agency made mistakes that “caused so much death” as the coronavirus spread across the globe.

Trump criticized the international agency’s response to the outbreak, saying “one of the most dangerous and costly decisions from the WHO was its disastrous decision to oppose travel restrictions from China and other nations” that Trump imposed early on in the outbreak.

The WHO didn’t immediately return CNBC’s request for comment. But in a statement, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said that now is not the time to reduce resources in the fight against Covid-19.


· DoubleLine's Gundlach: The Fed has failed and is fundamentally broken

The Fed has failed and is fundamentally broken, Jeffrey Gundlach, Wall Street's bond king and Founder and Chief Executive Officer of DoubleLine Capital, tweeted out early Wednesday.

Gundlach tweeted: “The Federal Reserve is presently acting in blatant non-compliance with the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. An institution violating the rules of its own charter is de facto admitting that said institution has failed and is fundamentally broken.”

‘Of course, the Federal Reserve will make some wonky semantic argument about why they are “technically” in “compliance”. Just like the balance sheet expansion program last fall was “not QE”.”


· Japan’s death toll from the novel coronavirus could reach 400,000 without measures to stem the contagion, according to a health ministry projection reported by local media.

A ministry team studying clusters of the disease estimated that serious cases needing ventilator intervention could reach 850,000, Kyodo and the Asahi newspaper reported.


· The coronavirus health crisis likely knocked China’s economy into its first decline since at least 1992 in the first quarter, raising the heat on authorities to do more to restore growth as mounting job losses threaten social stability.

Analysts expect China’s gross domestic product to have shrunk 6.5% in January-March from a year earlier, according to a Reuters poll. That would reverse a 6% expansion in the fourth quarter of 2019 and mark the first decline since at least 1992 when official quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) records started.

Forecasts by 57 analysts polled by Reuters ranged from a 28.9% GDP contraction to a 4% expansion for the first quarter.


· U.S. opposition seen stalling major IMF liquidity boost

U.S. opposition is expected to prevent the International Monetary Fund this week from deploying one of its most powerful tools to help countries fight the coronavirus: creating a new allocation of Special Drawing Rights.

The move, akin to a central bank “printing” new money, has been advocated by economists, finance ministers and non-profit groups to provide as much as $500 billion in urgently-needed liquidity for the IMF’s 189 member countries.


· Oil prices fell on Wednesday on persistent worries about oversupply amid global coronavirus-related lockdowns and as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of a deep recession.

Brent futures were down 51 cents, or 1.7%, at $29.09 a barrel as of 0735 GMT, giving up earlier gains and extending losses from Tuesday’s 6.7% decline.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slid 4 cents, or 0.2%, to $20.07, having crashed 10.3% in the previous session.


· WTI remains on the offer after rejection at $20.80

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is operating on slippery grounds at press time, having faced rejection at $20.80 during the overnight trade.

A barrel of black gold is currently changing hands at $20.30, representing a 1.5% decline on the day.

Prices printed a low of $19.92 on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia slashed its official selling price for Asian customers for May in a bid to capture market share before output cuts take effect from May 1. Further, fears of a coronavirus-led recession overshadowed the recently reached OPEC+ output cut deal and added to bearish pressures around WTI.

Technical levels

Resistance: $22.80 (overnight high), $22 (hourly chart hurdle).

Support: $19.92 (Tuesday's low), $19.00 (psyhcological support).



Reference: CNBC, Reuters, Worldometers, FX Street


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