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Latest on the spread of the coronavirus around the world

-Total confirmed cases: More than 1,926,235

-Total deaths: At least 119,730

-The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 210 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances: the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan, and the Holland America's MS Zaandam cruise ship.

-US cases: At least 587,173 (+232), and deaths: 23,644 (+4)

-Spain cases: At least 170,099, and deaths: 17,756

-Italy cases: At least 159,516, and deaths: 20,465

-Thailand cases: At least 2,613 (+34), and deaths: 41 (+1)

-According to the German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the number of confirmed coronavirus cases rose to 125,098, with a total of 2,969 deaths reported on Tuesday.

Cases increased by 2,082 in Germany, the lowest daily rise in three weeks. The death toll jumped by 180, higher than Thursday’s 116 increase.

The institute reported that 68,200 people are estimated to have recovered from the disease.

- World Health Organization officials said Monday not all people who recover from the coronavirus have the antibodies to fight a second infection, raising concern that patients may not develop immunity after surviving Covid-19.

A preliminary study of patients in Shanghai found that some patients had “no detectable antibody response” while others had a very high response, said Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s lead scientist on Covid-19. Whether the patients who had a strong antibody response were immune to a second infection is “a separate question,” she added.

· The dollar slipped on Tuesday and the Australian dollar led a rally in riskier currencies as China’s trade data painted a less gloomy picture of the coronavirus’ economic fallout than markets had feared.

China’s March exports fell 6.6% from a year earlier, compared with a forecast for a 14% drop and imports fell by less than 1%, compared with a 9.5% drop anticipated by economists.

The Australian dollar AUD=D3 rose 0.7% to $0.6432, the New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 firmed 0.6% to $0.6131 and the pound GBP= added 0.4% to $1.2562 - their strongest since mid-March

The yen JPY= held at 107.70 per dollar, a fraction softer than a two-week peak hit on Monday. The euro EUR= recouped overnight losses to $1.0939. The Chinese yuan CNY= firmed 0.1% to 7.0428 per dollar.

Against a basket of currencies =USD, the dollar was 0.2% weaker at 99.195.

· EUR/USD Price Analysis: Holds above 1.09, charts show failed breakout

EUR/USD is trading in the green near 1.0918 at press time, having found bids near 1.0890 on Monday.

The path of least resistance is to the downside, as the 4-hour chart is reporting a failed breakout - the spot breached the descending trendline connecting March 8 and March 29 highs last week with a move above 1.0940. So far, however, that has failed to entice buyers, as evidenced by the pullback from 1.0968 to 1.0918.

Further, the 4-hour chart shows a rising wedge breakdown, a bearish reversal pattern, which indicates the corrective bounce from 1.0768 has ended and sellers have regained control.

All in all, risks appear skewed in favor of a drop to 1.0768. A convincing move above 1.10 (4-hour chart 200-candle average) is needed to put the bulls back into the driver's seat.

· GBP/USD: Firmer above 1.2550 despite fears of extended lockdown in the UK

GBP/USD takes the bids near 1.2560, monthly high, while heading into the London open on Tuesday. In doing so, the Cable pays a little heed to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis at home as the problems are comparatively larger in the US.

Against the move could be the likely extension of the British lockdown for another month. The Guardian quoted Sir Patrick Vallance, Government Chief Scientific Adviser.

Even so, the market’s risk-tone recovers since early-Asia amid hopes of the pandemic to recede in few weeks.

Technical analysis

Having breached 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March month downside, GBP/USD buyers aim for 50-day and 200-day SMAs, respectively near 1.2580 and 1.2660. However, a daily closing below the said key Fibonacci level around 1.2520 can fetch the quote to a three-week-old rising trend line near 1.2485.

· New York, California and other states plan for reopening as coronavirus crisis eases

Ten U.S. governors on the east and west coasts banded together on Monday in two regional pacts to coordinate gradual economic reopenings as the coronavirus crisis finally appeared to be ebbing.

Announcements from the New York-led group of Northeastern governors, and a similar compact formed by California, Oregon and Washington state, came as President Donald Trump declared any decision on restarting the U.S. economy was up to him.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said he was teaming up with five counterparts in adjacent New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island to devise the best strategies for easing stay-at-home orders imposed last month to curb coronavirus transmissions.

· S&P sees a 33% probability of Australian AAA rating downgrade

S&P Global Ratings is out with its latest review report on the Australian economy, hinting that there is1 in 3 chance of Australian AAA rating downgrade.

“Spending to combat the virus economic impact.

Downgrading the outlook on the credit rating was not a reflection on the spending but that the government had greater debt.

Australia is not losing fiscal discipline, they are responding to an external shock that has hit the economy.

Not S&P's base case to lower the rating.

Expect Australia's fiscal position to weaken for the next two years but anticipated a rebound in 2022.”

· The first wave of stimulus relief checks were deposited into some Americans’ bank accounts over the weekend, according to the IRS. Millions more can expect to receive theirs in the coming weeks as part of the $2.2 trillion stimulus bill passed to aid Americans suffering financially as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

· The French economy is expected to contract 8% this year, the finance minister said on Monday, revising the governments outlook for the second time in a week.

“We will have a growth forecast of -8 in the updated budget law,” Bruno Le Maire told BFM TV, revising the estimate down from -6% flagged on Thursday.

· North Korea launched what were believed to be multiple short-range cruise missiles into the sea between the Korean peninsula and Japan on Tuesday, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said, the latest in a series of weapons’ tests by the reclusive state.

· Citing sources with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) thinking, Reuters reports that the Japanese central bank will discuss taking further steps to ease corporate funding strains at this month's rate review.

The funding stress is mainly due to the slumping sales, in the face of the coronavirus outbreak.

· Oil prices rose around 1% on Tuesday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted shale output in the world’s biggest crude producer would fall by a record amount in April, adding to cuts from other major producers.

Brent LCOc1 futures rose 40 cents, or 1.3%, to $32.14 a barrel by 0638 GMT after settling 0.8% higher on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was up 15 cents, or 0.7%, at $22.56, having dropped 1.5% the previous session.

Supporting prices, U.S. shale oil output is expected to have the biggest monthly drop on record during April, the U.S. EIA said on Monday.

Production has been sliding for several months, but the declines are expected to accelerate sharply in April with a loss of nearly 200,000 bpd of production, the EIA said.

· Morgan Stanley raises its Q3 oil price forecast

Morgan Stanley has raised its third-quarter price forecasts for Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil to $30 per barrel and $27.50 per barrel from the previous forecasts of $25 and $22.50, respectively, according to Reuters.

“The OPEC+ deal will not prevent sharp inventory builds in the coming months but would lead to stock reductions from the second half of 2020 onwards.”

· WTI snaps two-day losing streak, still below $23.00, amid risk reset

While bouncing off the lowest from April 02 to $22.75, WTI registers 1.95% gains during the Asian session on Tuesday. While broad risk aversion, due to the coronavirus (COVID-19), weighed on the OPEC+ output cut the previous day, expectations of further relief from the supply side might have triggered the black gold’s latest recovery.

Technical analysis

A confluence of 200-HMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement around $23.95/24.05 becomes the tough nut to crack for buyers. On the contrary, a downside break below $22.30 support line will trigger fresh declines towards March 31 top near $21.60.

· WTI Price Analysis: 10-day SMA guards immediate upside

Reference: CNBC, Reuters, Worldometers, FX Street