• MTS Economic News 20200409

    9 Apr 2020 | Economic News


· Latest on the spread of the coronavirus around the world

Ø Total confirmed cases: More than 1,517,731

Ø Total deaths: At least 88,450

Ø The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 209 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances: the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan, and the Holland America's MS Zaandam cruise ship.

Ø US cases: At least 434,698 (+31,706), and deaths: 14,783 (1,935)

Ø Spain cases: At least 148,220 (+6,278), and deaths: 14,792 (747)

Ø Italy cases: At least 139,442 (+3,836), and deaths: 17,669 (542)

Ø Thailand cases: At least 2,369 (+111), and deaths: 30 (+3)

- Speed of coronavirus deaths shocks doctors as New York toll hits new high

New York, the hardest hit state in America, on Wednesday reported its highest number of coronavirus-related deaths in a single day with even veteran doctors and nurses expressing shock at the speed with which patients were declining and dying.

The number of coronavirus cases in New York state alone approached 150,000 on Wednesday, even as authorities warned the state’s official death tally may understate the true number.

- 2.4 million Californians have applied for unemployment since March 12

California Gov. Gavin Newsom reported that 2.4 million Californians have applied for unemployment insurance in the state since March 12. That’s an increase of 1.4 million claims since the number topped 1 million on March 25.

- Five million more unemployment claims expected, but now layoffs are broader and could be more permanent



Another 5.25 million workers are expected to have filed unemployment claims last week, reflecting a larger swath of the country now under shutdown orders.

Together with the claims filed in the past two weeks, the total could now surpass 15 million. But that number is still probably millions shy of the number of workers who may have already lost their jobs as the economy abruptly shut down.

The unemployment claims report for the week ended April 4, is expected at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday. It would be the third in a row to show millions of Americans filing claims. In the last two reports, a total 10 million workers had filed for state unemployment benefits.

Economists forecast that the unemployment rate will jump into the teens this month, from March’s 4.4% level and the 3.5% it was at in February. They also estimate anywhere from 10 million to 20 million will show up in the monthly employment report as lost jobs.

- Coronavirus is set to cost 195 million jobs in the second quarter, UN labor agency predicts

The coronavirus pandemic is expected to wipe out 6.7% of working hours globally in the second quarter of 2020, according to a forecast by the International Labor Organization.

The United Nations’ labor agency said this would be the equivalent of 195 million full-time workers, with a standard 48-hour working week.

In March, the ILO predicted that nearly 25 million jobs would be lost by the end of 2020.

However, it now believes that there is a “high risk that the end-of-year figure will be significantly higher” than that initial projection, as the pandemic had “further accelerated in terms of intensity and expanded its global reach” since that data was published.

- Trump says would like to reopen U.S. economy with a 'big bang'

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he would like to reopen the U.S. economy with a “big bang” but that the death toll from the coronavirus needs to be on the down slope before that can happen.

At a White House news briefing, Trump said the Centers for Disease Control would release guidance later on Wednesday to ensure critical infrastructure workers can do their jobs after being exposed to the virus.

Trump did not give a timeframe on when he would like to reopen the economy, but his chief economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said on Tuesday it was possible this could happen in four to eight weeks.

Trump, seeking re-election on Nov. 3, wants to get the economy going again as soon as possible, but his medical advisers are urging caution out of concern that trying to return to some sense of normalcy too early could lead to a renewed outbreak.

- Sanders quits U.S. presidential race, setting up Biden battle with Trump

Bernie Sanders, a democratic socialist whose progressive agenda pushed the Democratic Party sharply to the left, ended his White House campaign on Wednesday, clearing the way for a Nov. 3 election battle between former Vice President Joe Biden and Republican President Donald Trump.

- Trump escalates tension with World Health Organization over coronavirus pandemic, repeats threat to withhold funding

U.S. President Donald Trump escalated tension with the World Health Organization on Wednesday, once again criticizing the agency’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and threatening to withhold funding.

“So we’re going to do a study, an investigation, and we’re going to make a determination as to what we’re doing. In the meantime, we’re holding back,” Trump said at a White House press conference Wednesday.

- Fed will keep rates near zero until economy has ‘weathered’ pandemic impact, minutes show

The Federal Open Market Committee has released the minutes of its March 15 meeting, during which it lowered its benchmark interest rate to near zero.

The decision also included a nod to the “forward guidance” the Fed uses to indicate the future path of policy. Market participants had been looking for whether the meeting summary would show an intent to keep the fed funds rate at its lowest level.

“With regard to monetary policy beyond this meeting, these participants judged that it would be appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to ¼ percent until policymakers were confident that the economy had weathered recent events and was on track to achieve the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals,” the minutes said.

- Fed's Kaplan sees U.S. growth returning in second half, but consumers staying cautious

The U.S. economy is headed for a return to growth in the second half of the year after a steep decline this quarter, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan said on Wednesday.

But even after infections of the coronavirus crest and the economy begins to reopen, he said, consumers may not spend as freely as before the crisis, not only because of worries about their health if they shop or dine out, but also because of concerns about their jobs and their savings.

Their caution will mute the strength of the rebound and leave the world’s largest economy about 4% to 5% smaller at the end of 2020 than it was at the end of last year, he said.

- Canada bank CEOs see bigger economic challenge from coronavirus pandemic than financial crisis

The coronavirus pandemic’s economic impact on Canada will be broader and more challenging than the 2008-09 financial crisis, with the recovery likely to take longer than expected, chief executives of the country’s two major banks said on Wednesday.

- Italy’s daily coronavirus death toll falls, but new cases accelerate

Deaths from the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy rose by 542, a lower tally than the 604 the day before, but the number of new cases pushed higher to 3,836 compared with a previous 3,039.

The total death toll since the outbreak came to light on Feb. 21 rose to 17,669, the Civil Protection Agency said, the highest in the world.

The number of confirmed cases climbed to 139,422, the third-highest global tally behind that of the United States and Spain.

There were 3,693 people in intensive care on Wednesday against 3,792 on Tuesday — a fifth consecutive daily decline, underscoring growing hopes that the illness is on the retreat thanks to a nationwide lockdown introduced on March 9.

- Coronavirus pandemic to shrink German economy by record 9.8% in second quarter

Germany’s economy, Europe’s largest, will probably shrink by 9.8% in the second quarter, its biggest decline since records began in 1970, due to measures imposed to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus, the country’s leading think tanks said on Wednesday.

That would be more than double the drop seen in the first quarter of 2009, during the global financial crisis, the economic institutes said.

The research institutes said the economy probably shrank by 1.9% from January to March. As Reuters previously reported, they said the German economy is likely to shrink by 4.2% this year and grow by 5.8% next year.

- Starbucks second-quarter earnings to fall 46% as coronavirus hits sales

Starbucks on Wednesday announced that it expects its fiscal second-quarter earnings to be cut nearly in half as the coronavirus pandemic causes sales to plunge in its two largest markets.

The company’s stock fell 2% in extended trading. Shares, which have a market value of $84 billion, have fallen 18% so far in 2020, as of Wednesday’s close.

Starbucks said it expects to earn 28 cents in the second quarter.

On an adjusted basis, earnings per share will be 32 cents, down from 60 cents per share in the year-ago period.

· US dollar drifts higher as optimism ebbs on coronavirus crisis

The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday in choppy trading, attracting safe-haven bids, as optimism faded that the coronavirus crisis may be nearing a peak and investor concerns remained over the economic fallout of the pandemic.

The greenback’s firmer tone came after U.S. equities ended lower on Tuesday. Wall Street shares traded higher in morning trading on Wednesday, but not many analysts were betting they would remain so by the end of the day.

The dollar index was flat to slightly higher on the day at 99.993.

Against the yen, the dollar inched higher to 108.79 yen.

The euro was slightly lower on the day at $1.0883, weighed down by the failure of European Union finance ministers to agree on further support for their coronavirus-hit economies. The impasse spooked bond markets and sent shorter-dated Italian yields spiking higher.

The talks, which are trying to agree a package of measures for governments, companies and individuals, were suspended until Thursday. A feud between Italy and the Netherlands over what conditions should be attached to euro zone credit for governments was blocking progress, sources said.

Sterling gained 0.4% against the dollar to $1.2395.

· Oil jumps ahead of OPEC-led talks on output cuts

Oil prices jumped on Wednesday, supported by hopes that a meeting between OPEC members and allied producers on Thursday will trigger output cuts to shore up prices that have collapsed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Thursday’s videoconference meeting between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia is expected to be more successful than their gathering in March, which ended in a failure to extend supply cuts and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 73 cents, or 3%, to trade at $24.34 per barrel. Brent crude gained 40 cents, or 1.3%, to trade at $32.26 per barrel.

On Wednesday the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that inventory rose by 15.2 million barrels for the week ending April 3. Analysts had been expecting a build of 9.67 million barrels, according to estimates from FactSet.

- U.S. crude futures rose as much as 6% in early trade on Thursday ahead of a crucial meeting between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia - a group known as OPEC+.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 rose to a high of $26.61 and was traded up 4.6%, or $1.16, at $26.25 as of 2206 GMT.

Reference: CNBC, Reuters, Worldometers

MTS Gold Co., Ltd.
40,42,44, Sapsin Road, Wang Burapha Phirom Sub-district, Pranakorn District, Bangkok, 10200
Tel. 0 2770 7777 Fax. 0 2623 9366 E-mail: support@mtsgoldgroup.com