• MTS Economic News 20200407

    7 Apr 2020 | Economic News


· CORONAVIRUS UPDATES:

- Latest on the spread of the coronavirus around the world

- Total confirmed cases: More than 1,344,859

- Total deaths: At least 74,635

- The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 209 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances.

- US cases: At least 366,112 (+29,439), and deaths: 10,859 (1,243)

- Italy cases: At least 132,547 (+3,599), and deaths: 13,341 (700)

- Thailand cases: At least 2,220 (+51), and deaths: 26 (+3)


- Trump says considering second round of direct payments to Americans

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that a second round of direct payments from the federal government to Americans was under serious consideration to help limit the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

Asked if he would consider a second round of direct payments, Trump told a news conference: “We could very well do a second round of direct (payments).”

He then added: “It is absolutely under serious consideration.”

- More than 10,000 people in the US have died from coronavirus. Many more are expected this week

In just six weeks, the US death toll from coronavirus went from zero to more than 10,000.

That grim milestone was reached Monday, shortly after officials warned this will be the toughest week yet in the pandemic.

Michigan hospitals are three to six days away from running out of critical supplies, the governor said.

Mortuaries in New Orleans are already out of space, and the mayor said she needs help getting more refrigeration.

And New York, New Jersey and Detroit will see peaks in hospitalizations and deaths this week, a US Health and Human Services assistant secretary said.

Other US cities will experience their own peaks in the coming weeks, Dr. Brett Giroir told NBC's "Today" show. He said the peaks reflect infections that occurred two or three weeks ago.

"We may be seeing the worst upon us right now in terms of outcomes," Giroir said.


- White House health advisor Fauci says we will never get back to ‘normal’

The world may never get back to what is considered “normal” before the coronavirus emerged from Wuhan, China a little over three months ago and spread to more than 1.3 million people across the world, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said.

Fauci, in answering a question about whether the world would get back to normal before a vaccine is approved, said we will gradually be able to “function as a society. But you’re absolutely right, if you want to get to pre-coronavirus, that might not ever happen in the sense that the threat is there.”

COVID-19 has spread to almost every country in the world, killing more than 74,000.

“When we say getting back to normal we mean something very different from what we’re going through right now because right now we are in a very intense mitigation,” Fauci said.


- WHO says there’s a global shortfall of 5.9 million nurses as world battles coronavirus pandemic

The World Health Organization is urging countries to create at least 6 million new nursing jobs by 2030 to offset a projected “global shortfall” as health-care workers across the world respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Nursing is the largest occupational group in the health-care sector, accounting for roughly 59% of health professions, WHO says. There are just under 28 million nurses worldwide, about 5.9 million short of what the world needs to adequately care for the growing population, according to a new report published Monday from WHO, the International Council of Nurses and Nursing Now.

The greatest deficit of nurses is in low- to low-middle income countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, the Eastern Mediterranean region and some parts of Latin America, according to the report, which looked at 191 countries using data between 2013 and 2018.

More than 80% of the world’s nurses work in countries that account for half of the world’s population, according to the report’s findings.

- Mainland China reported 39 new coronavirus cases as of Sunday, up from 30 a day earlier, and the number of asymptomatic cases also surged, as Beijing continued to struggle to extinguish the outbreak despite drastic containment efforts.

The National Health Commission said in a statement on Monday that 78 new asymptomatic cases had been identified at of the end of the day on Sunday, compared with 47 the day before.

Imported cases and asymptomatic patients, who have the virus and can give it to others but show no symptoms, have become China's chief concern in recent weeks after draconian containment measures succeeded in slashing the infection rate.

Of the new cases showing symptoms, 38 were people who had entered China from abroad, compared with 25 a day earlier. One new locally transmitted infection was reported, in the southern province of Guangdong, down from five a day earlier in the same province.

The new locally transmitted case, in the city of Shenzhen, was a person who had travelled from Hubei province, the original epicentre of the outbreak, Guangdong provincial authorities said.

- Japan to declare coronavirus emergency, launch stimulus of almost $1 trillion: PM

Japan is to impose a state of emergency in Tokyo and six other prefectures as early as Tuesday to contain the coronavirus, while the government prepares a $990 billion stimulus package to soften the economic blow.

· Fed's Powell to update on economy Thursday in webcast statement

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give an update on the economy Thursday at 10 a.m. in a webcast sponsored by the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank, the Fed announced on Monday.

It will be the Fed chair’s first public remarks since an appearance March 26 on NBC’s “Today Show.”

- The Dollar on Friday -
The dollar largely shrugged off the U.S. non-farm payrolls report that showed massive job losses of 701,000 last month, compared with expectations of 100,000 lost jobs.

March’s contraction abruptly ended a historic 113 straight months of employment growth. The Labor Department also revised February’s number upward to 275,000 job gains. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5% the previous month.

In midday trading, the U.S. dollar index was up 0.6% at 100.78. The index is on track for a 2.5% gain on the week, having whipsawed last month from highs on a scramble for cash before slumping as the U.S. Federal Reserve flooded the market with liquidity.

The euro was down 0.6% against the dollar at $1.0787, on pace for a 3.1% weekly loss.

· Dollar rises against yen as Japan ready to declare state of emergency

The U.S. dollar stalled against most currencies on Monday but continued its rise versus the Japanese yen as investors digested the fact that the rate of deaths from coronavirus in Europe was slowing while deaths in Japan and elsewhere in Asia accelerated.

With traders getting back some of the “risk on” mood, the yen fell, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which tend to benefit from sharper risk appetite, rose.

The greenback rose 0.7% to 109.38 yen, a 10-day high, while the Australian dollar rose 1.3% at 0.6071 per U.S. dollar.

The euro was neutral versus the U.S. currency at 1.0805. An index which tracks the dollar against six major currencies was also flat at 100.68.

- Crude Oil on Friday -
Oil rose on Friday as traders eyed a possible deal on production cuts after President Donald Trump said he expected a deal of at least a 10 million barrel production cut to soon be announced, and after Saudi Arabia called an “urgent” meeting for OPEC.

Brent crude futures were up 9%, or $2.75, at $32.69 per barrel. Brent soared as much as 47% during Thursday’s session, its highest intraday percentage gain ever, before closing 21% higher, but still at less than half the $66 it was trading at at the end of 2019.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also moved back into positive territory, rising 4.5%, or $1.13, to $26.45 per barrel, after surging 24.7% on Thursday.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he had brokered a deal which could see Russia and Saudi Arabia cutting output by 10 to 15 million barrels per day (bpd) - an unprecedented amount representing 10% to 15% of global supply.

Trump said he had made no offer to cut U.S. output.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday he would impose tariffs on crude imports if he has to “protect” U.S. energy workers from the oil price crash that has been exacerbated by a war between Russia and Saudi Arabia over market share.

· Oil falls after Saudi Arabia, Russia delay meeting, Cushing stockpiles soar

Oil prices slumped on Monday, pulling back from last week’s gains after Saudi Arabia and Russia delayed a meeting of oil producers aimed at resolving growing worldwide oversupply as the coronavirus pandemic pummels demand.

“The delay in the OPEC+ meeting sparked much of today’s selloff as a result of major philosophical differences between Russia and the Saudis that will likely preclude a deal on Thursday,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois.

Brent futures LCOc1 settled $1.06, or 3.1%, lower at $33.05 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 fell $2.26, or 8%, to end at $26.08.

U.S. prices fell more than global benchmark Brent after a report from data provider Genscape showed that inventories at the Cushing storage hub in Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, rose by about 5.8 million barrels last week, traders said.

If those figures are matched by official U.S. Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday, it would be the fifth straight weekly storage build at the hub and the biggest weekly increase on record dating to 2004.

· Brent crude could plunge to ‘single-digit lows’ if OPEC+ can’t agree on output cuts, says Fitch


Brent crude futures could plunge to “single-digit lows” if major oil producers fail to reach a deal to cut output at a time when demand has collapsed due to the coronavirus pandemic, Fitch Solutions said in a Friday report.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are expected to meet on Thursday — a delay from Monday — in an attempt to agree on production cuts. A previous deal by the group — commonly known as OPEC+ — expired in March after Saudi Arabia and Russia failed to reach an agreement. The fallout sent oil prices plummeting to multi-year lows.

The expiry of the deal means that producers are free to increase output this month, with Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Russia among those saying that they would do so.

Analysts from Fitch Solutions said a fall in demand and an increase in supply could result in more than 20 million barrel per day of excess oil. That would put the oil market under “extreme physical pressure,” they wrote in the report published before the OPEC+ meeting was postponed.

· OPEC+ likely to agree to cut production if U.S. joins effort: sources

Major oil producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia are likely to agree to cut production at a Thursday meeting but only if the United States joins the effort, aimed at coping with the disastrous effect of the coronavirus on fuel demand, three OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Monday.

Worldwide oil demand has dropped by roughly 30%, or about 30 million barrels a day, at the same time that Saudi Arabia and Russia have been flooding markets with extra supply.

Last week, in response to a weeks-long market rout, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, started talking about cutting production, but want other non-OPEC nations to participate, particularly the United States.

“Without the U.S., no deal,” one of the sources said.

Two OPEC sources said Thursday’s meeting would be held by video conference at 1400 GMT.

Reference: Worldometers, CNN, Reuters, CNBC, France24


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