• MTS Economic News 20200403

    3 Apr 2020 | Economic News

Latest on the spread of the coronavirus around the world

Ø  Total confirmed cases: More than 935,345

Ø  Total deaths: At least 47,194

Ø  The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 203 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances: the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan, and the Holland America's MS Zaandam cruise ship.

Ø  US cases: At least 215,003 (+26,306), and deaths: 5,102 (1,046)

Ø  Italy cases: At least 110,574 (+4,782), and deaths: 13,155 (727)

Ø  Thailand cases: At least 1,771 (+120), and deaths: 12 (+2)

- A record 6.6 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, and another four states told residents to stay at home - orders which now affect more than 80% of Americans in 39 states as cases in the country rose to 213,144, with the death count at 4,513.

- The Trump administration said it was allocating $25 billion in emergency funding grants to public transportation systems.

- American Airlines cutting international summer schedule by 60% as coronavirus drives down demand

American Airlines plans to cut its international summer flights by 60% due as the coronavirus and government travel restrictions aimed at stopping the disease from spreading drive down travel demand at an unprecedented rate.

- The World Bank said its board of executive directors approved an initial $1.9 billion in emergency funds for coronavirus response operations in 25 countries, and said it was moving quickly on projects in 40 additional countries.

- The European Commission proposed measures to protect the EU economy, including a short-time work scheme and easier access to funds for farmers and fishermen.

- Britain’s health minister promised a tenfold increase in the number of daily tests, as a poll said more than a half of Britons think the government was too slow to order a lockdown.

- President Vladimir Putin prolonged until April 30 a paid non-working period across Russia, which has reported 3,548 cases and 30 deaths.

- WHO expects the number of cases in Malaysia to peak in mid-April, saying there are signs of a flattening of the infection curve.

- Coronavirus epicenter could ‘possibly’ shift back to Asia, says public health expert

The epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak is at risk of shifting constantly, posing challenges to public health systems, a health expert said on Thursday.

“The epicenters will shift constantly,” said Teo Yik Ying, dean at the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health at the National University of Singapore.

Although the U.S. is now seen as the epicenter of the outbreak with cases surpassing 200,000 — “in a month’s time, the epicenter will shift,” Teo told CNBC’s “Street Signs.”

“Would it shift to South Asia? Would it shift to Africa or Latin America? We don’t know at the moment, but there is that real risk that the epicenters will continue to shift, and it could possibly even shift back to East Asia,” Teo said.

Along with the changing epicenter of the disease, the appears to be a second wave of coronavirus infections in countries like China and Singapore.

· Job losses in March could be the worst in a decade, and that’s just the beginning

March’s employment report could show the most monthly job losses in a decade, but it’s only a fraction of the real hit to the workforce that came when many states issued stay-at-home orders late in the month.

Economists expect a consensus decline of 100,000 nonfarm payrolls, according to Refinitiv. But the survey for the report was done before many states began telling residents to stay home. For the final two weeks of the month, 10 million people sought unemployment benefits as businesses and schools closed to stop the spread of the coronavirus.

“The main message is the labor market conditions started to slip in March, but obviously with the last two initial claims reports we’ve seen, we know April will be a disaster for labor markets,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays. “We still have two more weeks, and we’re probably looking at an unemployment rate of more than 10% in April.”

“The suddenness with which it all slipped off a cliff in two weeks is shocking,” Gapen said. “We now have stay-at-home orders in states that account for 82% of GDP.”

· Fed balance sheet increases to record $5.86 trillion

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet increased to a record $5.86 trillion this week and the central bank reported greater use of some of its newly launched liquidity facilities, all part of its efforts to keep markets functioning smoothly amid heightened volatility related to the coronavirus pandemic.

In the three weeks since the Fed’s effort to limit the economic damage from the outbreak kicked into overdrive, the central bank’s balance sheet has mushroomed by roughly $1.5 trillion. It is now the equivalent of a quarter or more of the size of the U.S. economy before the crisis struck, and will certainly grow larger in the weeks ahead as the Fed keeps piling on assets and the economy likely shrinks.

The central bank continued to snap up Treasury securities, mortgage bonds and other assets, according to data released on Thursday. The Fed’s holdings of mortgage-backed securities increased to $1.46 trillion from $1.38 trillion. Treasury holdings rose to $3.34 trillion from $2.98 trillion.

· Dollar firm overall, but oil price jump boosts commodity currencies

The dollar gave up some of its recent gains on Thursday after a 10% jump in oil prices boosted commodity-linked currencies, though uncertainties over the coronavirus pandemic kept the safe-haven greenback strong against other major currencies.

The dollar rose against a basket of currencies for a second straight day on Thursday as investors, worried about the prospect of a global recession, continued to take shelter in the greenback.

U.S. jobless claims in the latest week soared to a record level, yet the dollar’s reaction was tepid at most.

Some analysts do not expect the dollar to extend its recent rally after the Federal Reserve took a series of measures, which have begun to have an impact, to ensure an adequate global supply of the currency.

In late afternoon trading, the dollar index was up 0.7% at 100.17 .

Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.7% at 107.91 yen.

The euro extended its decline, falling more than 1% to $1.0847, after hitting a one-week low.

· Trump tells CNBC he spoke to Putin, MBS and expects Saudis, Russia to announce 10 million barrel cut

President Donald Trump told CNBC on Thursday he expects Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to announce a deal to cut oil production by 10 million to 15 million barrels.

· Oil posts biggest one-day gains after Trump touts Saudi-Russia oil deal

Crude prices posted their biggest-one day gains on record on Thursday after President Donald Trump said he expects Russia and Saudi Arabia to announce a major oil production cut, and Saudi state media said the kingdom was calling an emergency meeting of producers to deal with the market turmoil.

West Texas Intermediate crude surged 24.67% to settle at $25.32 per barrel, for its largest single-day percentage gain in history. Given WTI’s 59% decline this year a smaller gain, of course, now accounts for a much larger percentage move. International benchmark Brent jumped 21% to settle at $29.94 per barrel, in what was also its best day on record.

Brent soared as much as 47% during the session, its highest intraday percentage gain ever. WTI jumped as much as 35%, its second highest ever, after an intraday gain of 36% on March 19.

Despite the huge gains, oil prices have still lost more than half their value this year. The market slumped in early March, when Saudi Arabia and Russia were unable to come to terms on a deal to curb production, and the Saudis boosted output to more than 12 million bpd and shipped discounted cargoes worldwide.

Since then, the coronavirus pandemic has severely cut fuel demand. U.S. crude prices fell under $20 per barrel a few times in recent days.


Reference: CNBC, Reuters, Worldometers

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