• The dollar edged higher against the euro in holiday-thinned trading on Tuesday, ahead of the Christmas holiday, while the British pound looked set to snap a five-day streak of losses against the U.S. currency.
Against the dollar, the euro was 0.05% lower.
“The holiday has already shut several markets, and those that are open are lightly traded,” Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York, said in a note.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was up 0.06% at 97.715.
The dollar, up about 1.6% for the year as measured by the dollar index, has broadly benefited during bouts of risk aversion - because it is considered a safe-haven currency - and when markets have rallied, because the U.S. economy is outperforming other parts of the world.
• U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have a signing ceremony to sign the first phase of the U.S.-China trade deal agreed to this month.
Beijing has not yet confirmed specific components of the deal that were released by U.S. officials. A spokesman for China’s Commerce Ministry said last week the details would be made public after the official signing.
• U.S. shoppers spent more online during this year’s holiday shopping season, a report by Mastercard Inc (MA.N) showed on Wednesday, with e-commerce sales hitting a record high.
E-commerce sales this year made up 14.6% of total retail and rose 18.8% from the 2018 period, according to Mastercard’s data tracking retail sales from Nov. 1 through Christmas Eve.
Overall holiday retail sales, excluding autos, rose 3.4%.
“2019 HOLIDAY RETAIL SALES WERE UP 3.4% FROM LAST YEAR, THE BIGGEST NUMBER IN U.S. HISTORY. CONGRATULATIONS AMERICA!,” Trump tweeted.
• The United States needs to stop expecting North Korea to just “surrender,” said Harry Kazianis, senior director at D.C.-based think tank the Center for National Interest.
The more achievable goal would be to mitigate tensions with Pyongyang using economic solutions and collaboration with China, he suggested.
“I hope I’m wrong ... I think the North Koreans are going to test a intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM),” Kazianis said. He explained it would probably be similar to the ICBM test in 2017, adding “I think the North Koreans have been very clear that they’re going to do this.”
North Korea said in early December that it would surprise Washington with a Christmas present.
President Donald Trump said Tuesday that North Korea’s cryptic “Christmas gift” to the U.S. may be a “beautiful vase” — rather than a missile test, as some experts fear.
• Government protesters took to the streets of Hong Kong and gathered in shopping centres again on Christmas Day, confronting police who used tear gas and pepper spray, after a previous night of mob violence and vandalism.
Riot police were out in force on Wednesday at various hot spots and pepper sprayed protesters inside Sha Tin’s New Town Plaza, outside Langham Place in Mong Kok, and at Telford Plaza in Kowloon Bay riot police chased after protesters and sprayed them at close range. Earlier around 200 protesters gathered at Telford Plaza at 8pm and sang their anthem, Glory to Hong Kong.
The city’s embattled leader, Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, expressed her frustration at the behaviour of radicals on Christmas Eve, saying many people as well as tourists coming to Hong Kong were disappointed that their festive celebrations had been ruined by “a group of reckless and selfish rioters”.
• Oil prices rose on Tuesday in thin pre-Christmas trading after Russia said cooperation with OPEC on supply cuts would continue and amid optimism that the United States and China could finalize a trade agreement.
Brent crude was up 81 cents, or 1.22%, at $67.20 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 59 cents, or 1%, to settle at $61.11 per barrel.
• Oil in 2020
Both WTI and Brent prices are entering holiday mode holding above $60 and $65 respectively. News has been slow on the oil front with some focus falling on the new accord between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait that could bring 500,000 barrels per day to the market. Non-OPEC production is also getting more attention as Guyana ramps up their production and will possibly produce 750,000 barrels per day by 2025.
The consensus in 2020 for oil prices is rather mixed, with a slight lean towards the downside. Oil prices will be weighed upon rising global crude stockpiles next year, but improving demand that will stem softer trade tensions, a falling US dollar, and considerable geopolitical risks should keep prices rising higher in 2020.
Reference: CNBC, Reuters, Marketpulse
Thai
Eng