• MTS Economic News_20191111

    11 Nov 2019 | Economic News

· The dollar held near multi-week highs on Monday amid optimism that the United States and China would roll back tariffs that have hurt global growth.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies stood flat at 98.323, just off its 3-1/2-week high of 98.404 touched on late Friday.

Moves were slight as traders kept a wary eye for further news on the U.S.-China trade war.

Officials from both countries said late last week that a rollback of some tit-for-tat tariffs had been agreed as part of a preliminary deal, that has still to be finalised, aimed at ending the trade war.

Even though that was subsequently denied by U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday, he did not completely rule out a deal and U.S. benchmark treasuries held above a key support level at 1.9%, buoying the currency.

Versus the Japanese currency, the dollar slipped 0.25% to 109.03 yen as some safe-haven buying kicked in on reports that Hong Kong police opened fire and hit at least one protester, a fresh escalation of violence as anti-government demonstrations enter their sixth month.

But the yen still stood not too far from 109.49 yen, its five month-high marked on Thursday.

The Chinese yuan weakened 0.19% at 7.0013 per dollar in offshore trade on fresh violence in Hong Kong, where police fired live rounds at protestors, with Cable TV and other media reporting at least one person being wounded.

Disappointing economic data also hurt sentiment toward the yuan, as China’s producer prices fell the most in more than three years in October, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed on Saturday, while the country’s consumer prices rose at their fastest pace in almost eight years.

The British pound, whose fate is now closely tied to the outcome of an election set for Dec. 12, edged a shade higher to $1.2792 in Asian trade.

· Hong Kong police shot and wounded one protester who hospital officials said was in critical condition on Monday as the Chinese-ruled territory spiraled into rare weekday violence in the 24th straight week of pro-democracy unrest.

Riot police were deployed on Monday ahead of the demonstrations. Services on some train and subway lines were disrupted. Protesters were seen using barricades to block roads across Hong Kong as they targeted rush hour commuters and traffic.

· Auto sales in China fell for a 16th consecutive month in October, with the number of new energy vehicles (NEVs) sold contracting for the fourth month in a row, data from the country’s biggest auto industry association showed.

Total auto sales in the world’s biggest auto market fell 4% from the same month a year earlier, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said on Monday.

· Japan’s machinery orders fell for a third straight month in September, raising doubts that business spending will be strong enough to offset external pressures, which have clouded the outlook for the export-reliant economy.

Core machinery orders fell 2.9% in September from the previous month, down for a third straight month and dashing expectations for a 0.9% increase in a Reuters poll, Cabinet Office data showed on Monday.

· Spain’s far-right Vox party more than doubled its number of lawmakers in the country’s fourth national election in four years, which delivered a deeply fragmented parliament, setting the stage for very difficult government negotiations.

The Socialists of acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who had gambled that a repeat parliamentary election would strengthen his hand, finished first but with fewer seats than in the previous ballot in April and further away from a majority, the near-final official results showed.

· Investors are also concerned about excess supplies of crude, analysts said.

The oil market outlook for next year may have upside potential, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said last week, suggesting there is no need to cut output further.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies led by Russia meet in December. The so-called OPEC+ alliance, seeking to boost oil prices, has since January cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day until March 2020.

· Oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday amid concerns over the prospects of a trade deal between the United States and China, while worries about oversupply also weighed on the market.

Brent crude was down 69 cents, or 1.1%, at $61.82 by 0730 GMT. The contract rose 1.3% last week..

U.S. crude was 63 cents, or 1.1%, lower at $56.61 a barrel, having risen 1.9% last week.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that trade talks with China were moving along “very nicely,” but the United States would only make a deal with Beijing if it was the right one for America.

The 16-month trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has slowed economic growth around the world and prompted analysts to lower forecasts for oil demand, raising concerns that a supply glut could develop in 2020.

Trump also said there had been incorrect reporting about U.S. willingness to lift tariffs as part of a “phase one” agreement, news of which had boosted markets.

· The rally in crude oil prices so far this month topped out near the 57.50 area. Though Friday’s candlestick could resemble a bullish hammer – typically indicative that a move higher might lurk on the horizon. The long wick lower stretched to the downside briefly breached the 56.00 handle, but crude oil price action quickly caught bid at this key support level highlighted by its 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages.

The commodity’s zone of technical support around 55.75-56.00 is also underpinned by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its trading range since the Saudi Aramco pipeline attack. Correspondingly, a jump higher in the price of crude oil early next week could provide confirmation that the ongoing uptrend has strong potential to continue.

Yet the 200-day SMA remains an intimidating obstacle for crude oil bulls to overcome and last week’s high of 57.84 could also pose as a point of technical resistance. Beyond these nearside technical barriers, however, the 61.8% Fib and mid-September consolidation around the 59.00-59.50 area could serve as possible upside objectives.


Reference: Reuters, CNBC, FXStreet,DailyFX

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