• MTS Gold Evening News 20191007

    7 Oct 2019 | Gold News
 
· Gold prices ticked up on Monday as investors were cautious ahead of this week’s Sino-U.S. trade talks following a report that Beijing would likely disagree to a broad trade deal with the United States.

Spot gold inched 0.1% higher to $1,505.38 per ounce, as of 0612 GMT. Prices had firmed 0.5% last week on fears of cooling global growth.

U.S. gold futures slipped 0.1% to $1,511.00 per ounce.

· The next round of U.S-China trade talks are set to be held in Washington on Oct. 10-11, although hopes of progress diminished after a report that Chinese officials wanted the scope of this week’s negotiations to be narrow.

· There is uncertainty regarding the trade negotiations. China seems to be very reluctant to agree, said Margaret Yang Yan, a market analyst at CMC Markets. “There is demand for safe haven assets, which reflects a very cautious mood towards the trade deal.”

The long-drawn trade tussle between the world’s two largest economies has toppled markets globally and triggered fears of a possible recession.

“Gold has been in a range of less than $100. It will take a strong catalyst to bring gold out of this channel,” Yan said, adding that quantitative easing by the U.S. Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan could be a major factor.

· Jobs growth in the United States slowed in September and wage growth stalled, even as unemployment dropped to a 50-year low, a report on Friday showed.

But that did little to change market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates at its next policy review on Oct. 29-30 to support the economy.

· Meanwhile, China’s foreign exchange reserves fell more than expected in September amid a cooling domestic economy and the rising trade tensions.

· Spot gold may test a support at $1,488 per ounce, a break below which could cause a fall towards the range of $1,446-$1,462, said Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

· Gold sits pretty in $1500 handle ahead of trade talks

The yellow metal, gold, is relatively flat at the start of this week with both Australia and China out on holidays. The price is back above the psychological $1,500's and sights are set for higher levels as we head over to trade talk territories. At the time of writing, Gold is trading at $1,508 between a tight range of $1,508.60 and $1,509.39.

US and Chinese trades are set to start again this week. However, there are already reports that China is not about to renegociate on any of the demands that have been holding up progress. In a Bloomberg article, it was told that Vice Premier Liu He said to dignitaries that he would, "bring an offer to Washington that won't include commitments on reforming Chinese industrial policy or the government subsidies".

For the week ahead, besides trade talks, we have a number of other key events for the US, including Fed governor Powell, speaking, the FOMC minutes and US consumer Price Index.


Gold levels

Technically, the price left a daily doji candlestick on the charts with the price closing above the 1500 psychological figure again which opens 1520 ahead of a 1535 resistance level. On the downside, the bears will traget to break below a 50% mean reversion of the late June swing lows to recent highs around 1460/70.

· Gold Price Forecast for 2019 Remains Bullish on Divided FOMC

Gold trades at its highest level since 2013, with the price for bullion climbing to a fresh yearly-high ($1557) in September.

In turn, the precious metal may exhibit a bullish behavior over the remainder of 2019 as market participants hedge against fiat-currencies.

The fresh updates coming out of the Federal Reserve suggest the central bank will continue to insulate the economy as a number of Fed officials see the benchmark interest rate around 1.50% to 1.75% ahead of 2020.

However, a larger dissent may materialize within the FOMC as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard favored a 50bp rate cut in September, while Kansas City Fed President Esther George and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren voted to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold.

A greater divide at the Fed may push market participants to hedge against fiat-currencies, and the price of gold may exhibit a more bullish behavior over the remainder of the year on the back of falling interest rates along with the inverting US yield curve.

· Among other metals, platinum rose 0.3% to $878.87, silver dipped 0.1% to $17.54 and palladium was little changed at $1,665.67.


Reference: Reuters, FX Street, Daily FX

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