• MTS Gold Evening News 20190815

    15 Aug 2019 | Gold News
 

· Gold prices rose on Thursday as an inverted U.S. bond yield curve alarmed investors about rising recession risks, while the protracted Sino-U.S. trade war added to fears of a global economic slowdown, increasing the appeal for safe-haven assets.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,520.19 per ounce at 0100 GMT.

U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,526.80 an ounce.


· The U.S. Treasury yield curve temporarily inverted on Wednesday for the first time since 2007, an indication that is widely seen by investors as a sign of an upcoming U.S. recession.

Economic data from China and Germany suggested a slowing global economy, hit by the unabating U.S.-China trade war, Brexit and geopolitical tensions.


· On Wednesday, U.S. officials said China has made no trade concessions after U.S. President Donald Trump postponed the 10% tariffs on over $150 billion worth of Chinese imports, the latest sign that efforts to reach a trade deal were going nowhere.

The MSCI All Country World Price index, which incorporates readings of 49 equity markets across the world, shed 2.1% to its lowest level since June 4.

The dollar index, which measures its value against a basket of six major currencies, was little changed after a 0.2% gain on Wednesday.


· Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium next week. Traders see an about 74% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Fed this September.


· SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.91% to 844.29 tonnes on Wednesday.


· China has severely restricted imports of gold since May, bullion industry sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters, in a move that could be aimed at curbing outflows of dollars and bolstering its yuan currency as economic growth slows.

The world’s second largest economy has cut shipments by some 300-500 tonnes compared with last year - worth $15-25 billion (£12.4 billion - £20.7 billion) at current prices, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they are not authorised to speak to the media.

The restrictions come as an escalating trade confrontation with the United States has dragged China’s pace of growth to the slowest in nearly three decades and pressured the yuan to its lowest since 2008.


· Gold technical analysis: Bulls back on track for a break of 2019 highs

The price of the yellow metal has fliped back in a bullish trend, reversing losses seen in the prior session. The trend has been in development since a break above the 1450s and has been moving higher for the best part of August. The 1500 level was penetrated to 1480 in recent sessions but the bulls committed for a continuation, to the upside. From here, the 1528/30s come as a prior support area where the price was to be expected to hold initial tests. However, on a full-on break higher, bulls will look to the 127.2% Fibo target which is located around 1,560, guarding the Oct 2012 highs at 1795.

· “Fading overshoots in gold have been a loser’s game in the past. While we recognize that there might be quite a few risks for the bulls given that positioning is extended, we do see a robust price scenario for gold,” Ghali said.

Kitco’s senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff also said that the gold bulls have the near-term technical advantage, adding that “heightened concerns about slowing world economic growth … [and] geopolitics … remain close to the front burner of the marketplace.”

Gold’s bullish positioning seems to be “shielded,” according to FXTM senior research analyst Lukman Otunuga.

“While Gold is seen extending losses in the near term amid the risk-on mood, the precious metal remains shielded by various core market themes. For as long as geopolitical tensions, Brexit uncertainty, global growth concerns and central banks easing monetary policy remain key themes, Gold bulls are in control,” Otunuga wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.


• The latest weakness in yields was triggered by disappointing global economic data, which in turn has been benefitting gold on Wednesday, TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali told Kitco News.

“Looking at what led the yield curve to invert — a lot of global macro picture is pointing to slowing global growth, which we’ve known for some time. But, the question is whether the slowing global environment will eventually lead to slowing U.S. economy or ultimately drag the U.S. economy into recession,” Ghali said.

On the global economic front, investors were digesting China’s industrial production output dropping to the slowest rate in 17 years in July, rising just 4.8%. Also, Germany’s gross domestic product contracted by 0.1% in Q2 and the Euro zone GDP was at 0.2% in Q2

Reference: Reuters, FX Street, Kitco


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