• MTS Gold Evening News 20190813

    13 Aug 2019 | Gold News
 
  · Gold prices scaled their highest in more than six years on Tuesday, as concerns around protests in Hong Kong and an Argentine currency crash amid fears of global economic slowdown, prompted investors to move away from riskier assets.

Spot gold rose 0.7% to $1,521.98 per ounce as of 0715 GMT, its highest since April 2013.

U.S. gold futures rose 1% to $1,533 an ounce.


· “It is a pretty straight forward case of risk aversion. Crisis in Argentina and political deterioration in Hong Kong; underlying all of this, global growth is slowing,” said Ilya Spivak, senior currency strategist with DailyFx.

“Central banks can only do so much because a lot of them are at near record low interest rates. There is not a lot of ammunition to deploy as counter measures to the slowdown in global growth.”


· Protesters managed to shut down Hong Kong’s airport, the world’s busiest cargo airport, on Monday. The protests, which started as opposition to an extradition bill to mainland China, have expanded into wider calls for democracy.


· On the other side of the globe, fears of a possible return to interventionist policies gripped the Argentine market after market-friendly President Mauricio Macri lost by a much bigger-than-expected margin in presidential primaries.

These uncertainties alongside fears of a drawn out Sino-U.S. trade war rattled financial markets, spurring investors to safe-haven assets.

Bullion, along with the Japanese yen and U.S. Treasuries, is seen as a relatively safe investment in times of political and financial uncertainty. The yen stood near a seven-month high against the dollar.


· Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium next week. Traders see a 74% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Fed this September.

Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies.


· “Heightened geopolitical risks from Hong Kong protests along with global growth concerns remain largely supportive towards safe haven flows,” brokerage Phillip Futures said in a note.

“Gold prices must hold above $1,500 for an extension of the bullish wave in the current term.”


· Reflecting increased investor interest in gold, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, jumped 0.9% to 847.77 tonnes on Monday from Friday.


· Spot gold may test a resistance at $1,524 per ounce, a break above which could lead to a gain to $1,546, said Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

· Gold technical analysis: Eyes fresh 6-year highs despite overbought conditions

Gold is just $3 short of setting a fresh six-year high above $1,520.

The yellow metal continues to rise despite technical indicators like the 14-day relative strength index reporting overbought condition with an above-70 print.

It is worth noting that an overbought reading on the RSI does not imply a bearish reversal and is merely a sign the rally is overstretched.

Also, in a strong trending market, the RSI can stay overbought longer than the sellers can stay solvent.

The market remains emphatically bullish on gold. But, looking past the headlines, the yellow metal is beginning to look overbought, according to some analysts.

The gold market is on track to see its biggest weekly gain in more than three years as prices trade near a fresh six-year high. Although economic and geopolitical uncertainty continues to dominate the marketplace, some analysts think the market could be close to a near-term top and is due for a consolidation.

However, sentiment remains clearly bullish as analysts are reluctant to outright short gold.

“You can’t sell this market,” said Darin Newsom, president of Darin Newsom Analysis Inc. “I don’t want to buy at this level because the market is sharply overbought, but I also won’t be the first person to sell.”

This week, 16 market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. A total of 12 voters, or 75%, called for gold to be higher next week. Bearish and neutral votes were tied with each getting two votes or13%.

Meanwhile, 910 respondents took part in Kitco’s online Main Street poll. Participation in this week’s survey is at its highest level in more than a year. A total of 599 voters, or 65%, called for gold to rise further. Another 187 participants, or 21%, predicted for gold to fall. The remaining 124 voters, or 14%, saw a sideways market.

Gold prices surged higher after the China government let the yuan rise above 7 against the U.S. dollar for the first time in more than a decade, sparking fears that the U.S. –China trade war has evolved into a currency war.

Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, said that although a correction is overdue in the gold market, investor sentiment in the overall financial market has changed.

“And if you want to buy a little gold as a hedge on the rest of your portfolio, you tend to be less price sensitive. But all those small positions add up in a market as relatively small as the gold market. So gold could well drive further upwards,” he said.

Along with Newsom, Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, was the second neutral vote in the latest survey. He said that although gold has room to move higher in the near-term, momentum indicators have slowed.

“Gold has had a huge move in the last few months and it looks like it’s running into some resistance and looks like it wants to level off,” he said. “I don’t think the rally is over but I think gold right now wants to pause and digest its recent gains.”

However, he added that he would be reluctant to short the market in the current environment.

“The market is hyper-sensitive and bullish sentiment could strengthen really quickly,” he said. “I think traders should watch equity markets for near-term direction in gold.”

Lusk said he would expect “back-and-fill” trading to push gold to initial support at $1,495 to $1,480. However, he added that price could fall as low as $1,430 before gold bulls start to get a little nervous.

· In my previous analysis of gold , I showed an ascending triangle pattern to be forming with all the relevant criteria met for such a pattern:

- A fake-out was seen just prior to the breakout, with price making a move below the ascending trend support of the pattern, and then subsequently making a move back inside the pattern

- Price then broke out as it reached the apex of the triangle.

- Typically, to calculate a target (TP) for this pattern, the high formed during the pattern, as well as the low of the pattern would be subtracted. With the pip range formed from this calculation being added to the breakout price.

Add this onto the breakout price (1508) and you get 1535 as the target price


· Among other precious metals, silver climbed 1.8% to $17.36 per ounce. During the session, it hit its highest since January 2018 at $17.42.

Platinum rose 1.3% to $863.83 and palladium gained 0.7% to $1,437.98 an ounce.


Reference: Reuters, FX Street


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