• MTS Economic News_20190218

    18 Feb 2019 | Economic News

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·         The U.S. dollar dropped on Friday after San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly suggested the central bank may hold off on raising interest rates in 2019, bolstering risk appetite in the currency market.


The Fed probably will not need to raise rates this year, given a slowdown in economic growth and muted inflation, Daly told the Wall Street Journal in an interview published on Friday.


"If the economy evolves as I just said I expect it to - 2 percent growth, 1.9 percent inflation, no sense that (price pressures are) going up, no sense that we have any acceleration - then I think the case for a rate increase isn't there this year, the paper quoted Daly as saying.


·         The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six rivals, was about 0.1 percent lower at 96.901, after a week that included several weak data reports, including dismal U.S. retail sales.


·         The fall in the dollar drove the euro up from a three-month low hit earlier in the day, erasing all of its earlier losses, approaching the end of the day 0.04 percent stronger against the dollar at $1.1295.


The euro fell Friday morning after Benoit Coeure, a member of the European Central Bank's executive board, said a new round of cheap multi-year loans to banks was possible. Coeure added that the euro zone's recent economic slowdown is more pronounced than earlier expected, suggesting the path of inflation will also be more shallow.


·         Theresa May plans to speak to every European Union leader and the European Commission chief to seek changes to her EU withdrawal agreement, days after another defeat from her own lawmakers and as businesses brace for a no-deal Brexit on March 29.

·         President Donald Trump received an update on trade talks with China on Saturday at his Florida retreat after discussions in Beijing saw progress ahead of a March 1 deadline for reaching a deal.

Trump, at his Mar-a-Lago club, was briefed in person by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney and trade expert Peter Navarro, said White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, economic adviser Larry Kudlow and other aides joined by phone.


The White House offered no additional detail.


Both the United States and China reported progress in five days of negotiations in Beijing this week but the White House said much work remains to be done to force changes in Chinese trade behavior.


Shortly after the meeting with his trade team, Trump said on Twitter the talks in Beijing were “very productive.”


·         The United States is asking its European allies to "take back over 800" ISIS fighters that have been captured in Syria and put them on trial, President Donald Trump tweeted late on Saturday.

·         A representative of the United States government said Saturday that it would not help Saudi Arabia develop nuclear technology without guarantees that it would only be used for civilian purposes.

·         Brent crude oil climbed above $66 a barrel to its highest this year as OPEC-led supply cuts and this week's announcement of a higher than expected cut by Saudi Arabia encouraged investors.

The international oil benchmark ended Friday's session $1.68 higher at $66.25 a barrel, up 2.6 percent on the day. Brent set a fresh three-month closing high going back to Nov. 19 on Friday and rose 6.7 percent on the week.


U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.18, or 2.2 percent, to $55.58 per barrel, also the best settlement since Nov. 19. WTI ended the week with a 5.4-percent gain.


·         U.S. crude oil, also known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is seeing its best start ever. According to the Oil Price Information Service's Tom Kloza, there's not much that could derail the rally through the second quarter.

"We're going to see higher prices than we see right now," the firm's co-founder and global head of energy analysis said Thursday on CNBC's "Futures Now."


However, Kloza, who's known for predicting the 2015 crude collapse, said his forecast comes with a caveat: It'll be a more temperate and gentle year despite the robust start.

 

·         Overall, he predicted 2019 to be cheaper than last year. In 2018, the U.S. Energy Information Administration finds the average price for WTI crude was $65.06 a barrel.


Reference: CNBC, Reuters

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