• KITCO | Wall, Main St. Bullish On Gold Despite Jobs Data

    7 Jan 2019 | Gold News

Wall Street and Main Street both look for gold prices to rise next week despite a strong U.S. jobs report, according to the Kitco News gold survey.

Theoretically, the labor data increases the odds of further monetary tightening, which hurts gold. However, some Wall Street participants look for the metal’s previous upward momentum to continue, suggesting the jobs report was a single piece of data that may not be enough to move Federal Reserve policymakers away from their recently construed stance that rate hikes may become less aggressive.

Twenty market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. There were 11 votes, or 55%, calling for gold prices to rise. Six voters, or 30%, look for gold to fall, while three, or 15%, see the metal sideways or else are neutral.

Meanwhile, Main Street was the most bullish on gold than it has been in since April, with the 706 respondents in an online poll the most since mid-August. A total of 544 voters, or 77%, called for gold to rise, the most significant bullish percentage since 84% back on April 12. Another 101, or 14%, predicted gold would fall. The remaining 61 voters, or 9%, see a sideways market.

We still like it [gold] up,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with at Price Futures Group. “The bad manufacturing data in the U.S. [December purchasing managers index] may cause the Fed to pause despite strong jobs as further interest-rate hikes look to be on hold. It should keep gold in its upward trend.”

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Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, said the strong jobs gains do not deter him from looking for higher gold prices.

“I remain bullish here,” Grady said. “Gold is currently under pressure because the market is viewing the strong nonfarm payroll number as a potential sign of a rate hike in 2019. I totally disagree. This is one number, and I still believe that we are looking at zero to one potential hike in 2019. The geopolitical situation (Brexit, tariffs) has not changed and the government shutdown does not appear to be close to an end.”

Meanwhile, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, looks for gold to give up some of its recent gains.

“After rallying by $138 since August and following its best quarterly performance since Q1 17, gold looks set to pause after briefly touching $1,300/oz,” he said. “Given the recent strength and changed sentiment towards safe-haven assets, we suspect a correction could run out of steam before $1,265/oz; bulls may only begin to worry on a break below $1,250/oz as the potential for further gains into 2019 remain elevated.”

Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading, figures there could be a profit-taking pullback in gold if there is progress in U.S.-China trade talks. U.S. and Chinese officials at the vice minister level are scheduled to meet in Beijing on Monday and Tuesday.


Reference: Kitco

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