• Kitco Survey | Wall Street Split On Gold Prices; Main Street Bullish

    17 Dec 2018 | Gold News


Wall Street is split on where gold prices are headed next week, while Main Street is bullish, according to the Kitco News gold survey.

The critical event markets will be focusing on next week will be a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Policymakers are expected to hike interest rates another 25 basis points, but market watchers will be watching closely for clues on the pace of future hikes. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has suggested rates may be nearing a “neutral” level, and financial markets have been scaling back the number of rate hikes expected next year.

Those who are bullish tended to cite the potential for the FOMC to be more dovish than in the past. However, the gold bears cited recent dollar strength and technical-chart factors.

Eighteen market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. There were seven votes, or 39%, for both higher and lower. The other four respondents, or 22%, called for gold to be sideways or else were neutral.

Meanwhile, 507 people responded to an online Main Street poll. A total of 291 respondents, or 57%, called for gold to rise. Another 115, or 23%, predicted gold would fall. The remaining 101 voters, or 20%, see a sideways market.

“I think the trend to the upside is going to remain intact,” said Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading. “I’d look to buy dips down here.”

Like others, he suggested the metal will rise after the FOMC meeting, with expectations that monetary policymakers may hint at a slowing of the pace of tightening. That presumably would take away support from the U.S. dollar, Lusk said.

 “Gold will get a boost as the Fed will most likely come off as more dovish after they more than likely raise rates next week,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with at Price Futures Group. “Seasonal demand for gold is also strong and that should add even more support.”

Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, also looks for gold to rise.

“The threat of a government shutdown, as well as a Fed pause in rate tightening and increased legal trouble for President Trump, although already partly in the price, could cause a shock if they escalate,” Day said. “The next week or two may be uncertain but the next few months look up.”

 

 

Meanwhile, Mark Leibovit, editor of the VR Gold Letter, is among those who look for a pullback in gold prices.

“Too far, too fast,” Leibovit said, referring to a recent rally. “Think we're headed south next week.”

Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity research at Commerzbank, said that he is bearish on gold ahead of the new year. In particular, it will be difficult for gold to rally as the U.S. dollar remains strong, he said.

Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist with LaSalle Futures Group, looks for February gold to test the 50-day moving average around $1,231.50 and last week’s low of $1,226.60.


Reference: Kitco

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