• MTS Gold Evening News 20181017

    17 Oct 2018 | Gold News
 
• Gold prices edged lower early Wednesday as equities gained and the dollar firmed amid waning risk-averse sentiment, with the market awaiting minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting for fresh clues on the pace of interest rate hikes.

Spot gold was down 0.2 percent to $1,221.56 per ounce at 0438 GMT, but still near a 2-1/2-month high of $1,233.26 per ounce hit on Monday.

U.S. gold futures were down 0.5 percent at $1,225.2 an ounce.

• “The newly minted gold bulls are getting nervous as they haven’t bought at good levels. They were in pretty much at the top and we see those guys exiting the market,” said Stephen Innes, APAC trading head at OANDA in Singapore.

• Asian equities rose on Wednesday after upbeat U.S. earnings reports drove a rebound on Wall Street.

• The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.1 percent.

• The firming in equities and the dollar has led to the market discounting U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest criticism of the Fed, which should have otherwise been supportive of gold, a Singapore-based trader said.

Trump heaped more criticism on the Fed, calling it ‘my biggest threat’ in an interview with Fox Business Network on Tuesday.

Last week, Trump criticized the U.S. central bank twice, saying it was raising interest rates so swiftly that it threatened the country’s economic health.

The Fed raised interest rates last month for the third time this year and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in 2020.

“The current case of interest rates normalisation is quite cemented and this is taking a little bit of the froth off gold markets,” Innes said.

• Spot gold still targets a range of $1,208-$1,217 per ounce, as it failed to break a strong resistance at $1,235, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

• In other metals, silver dipped 0.3 percent to $14.60 per ounce, platinum was up 0.1 percent at $838.0 per ounce, and palladium fell 0.3 percent to $1,075.97.

• Wall Street and Main Street both look for gold’s newfound upward momentum to continue next week, based on the Kitco News gold survey.

Equities sold off sharply Wednesday and Thursday. Even though the stock market was up Friday morning, the prior weakness left gold higher for the week as investors turned to the metal as a safe haven. The dollar index also eased this week, further fueling gold’s ascent.

Fourteen market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. Eleven respondents, or 79%, predicted higher prices by next Friday. There were two votes, or 14%, calling for lower prices, while one respondent, or 7%, looked for a sideways market.

Meanwhile, 527 people responded to an online Main Street poll. A total of 355 respondents, or 67%, called for gold to rise. Another 99, or 18%, predicted gold would fall. The remaining 73 voters, or 14%, see a sideways market.

• Our current studies indicate that there is strong technical support at $1,217 per ounce. This is based upon our Fibonacci retracement levels in which that price point occurs at the 0.618% retracement. Resistance occurs just above current pricing at $1,232.80 which is the current 100-day moving average, and then at $1,246 per ounce, which is the 50% retracement level.

• Gold prices could easily post more gains due to record short positioning in the precious metal, with prices potentially rallying to near the $1,280-an-ounce, provided that the U.S. equity space continues to see some weakness, said TD Securities
“Considering that gold is sitting very near a key resistance point ($1,228/oz, 100dma) and that there is record short exposure, it would not be surprising to see a breakout toward the 200dma near $1,277 should U.S. equities show additional weakness,” said TD Securities head of commodity strategy Bart Melek.

Another ongoing factor required for gold to go higher is the continuous market repricing of Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations, added Melek.


• GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices paused to digest gains below resistance in the 1235.24-41.64 area. Negative RSI divergence hints a turn lower may be next, with a push below resistance-turned-supportin the 1211.05-14.30 zone putting the September 28 low at 1180.86 back in focus. Alternatively, a daily close above 1241.64 exposing the 1260.80-66.44 region.


Reference: Reuters,DailyFX,Kitco

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